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With all due respect, I think you're asking the wrong question. (a) Think of investments like a function with two inputs: risk and return. You've picked a des

by portman 17y ago

With all due respect, I think you're asking the wrong question. (a) Think of investments like a function with two inputs: risk and return. You've picked a desired level of return but haven't identified a desired level of risk, so by definition nobody can recommend an investment strategy. (b) There's no such thing as a "steady 4-5% annual return from $5 million" for any meaningful definition of "steady". (c) Where did 4-5% come from? Without understanding the thought process that went into those figures, it's hard to make any suggestions. If you want to get the most out of free advice on HN, I think you should rephrase the question along the following lines: "I recently inherited a little over $5 million. I am Y years old. I plan on working until I am R years old and expect to live until L years old. My current monthly expenses are M1 and I expect those to grow to M2 over the next 10 years. I want to use my inheritance to ______. What would you do with the money?"

jakarta 17y ago
portman makes a good point. Usually, targeting returns is kind of a sucker's game. That's not to say that it is impossible to achieve the kinds of returns you are looking for, but rather that it creates a mindset that ignores risk. The poster should first try to think of his $5M as money that stands to decline in value as the frictional forces of inflation approach. The goal here should not be so much targeting 5% returns but at least initially, preserving that $5M. It's not as simple as parking money into gold either, because gold itself fluctuates based on when you buy it. Yes, people have lost money by purchasing gold in the past, at the wrong times. TIPS aren't great either, because the calculations used by the government often understate inflation. So to me, when I see questions like this I often advocate scrutinizing the individual's current personal finances and then doing like portman says with projecting goals and expenses. Then, you look at investing and target how to invest with the appropriate time horizon.
smeatish 17y ago
I disagree with portman. Investment is a function of one input - risk OR return. If you follow the diversification strategy of portfolio theory, then you will generally be choosing a multiple of the market beta http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance) Your risk tolerance dictates an expected rate of return OR your desired rate of return dictates a variance of return. Of course these are averages and YMMV, but over a 30 year period there IS something approaching "steady". I think your question is perfectly stated, and gives an investment advisor all the information they need to choose an asset allocation.
barmstrong 17y ago
I think this is nit-picky and unnecessary. He is saying he wants the appropriate level of risk that would come with 4-5% return. There isn't anything unclear about it.
- portman 17y ago
  mos1 did a much better job than I did of indicating why the question is unclear. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1109031 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1109031

by portman 17y ago

jakarta 17y ago

portman makes a good point. Usually, targeting returns is kind of a sucker's game. That's not to say that it is impossible to achieve the kinds of returns you are looking for, but rather that it creates a mindset that ignores risk. The poster should first try to think of his $5M as money that stands to decline in value as the frictional forces of inflation approach. The goal here should not be so much targeting 5% returns but at least initially, preserving that $5M. It's not as simple as parking money into gold either, because gold itself fluctuates based on when you buy it. Yes, people have lost money by purchasing gold in the past, at the wrong times. TIPS aren't great either, because the calculations used by the government often understate inflation. So to me, when I see questions like this I often advocate scrutinizing the individual's current personal finances and then doing like portman says with projecting goals and expenses. Then, you look at investing and target how to invest with the appropriate time horizon.

smeatish 17y ago

I disagree with portman. Investment is a function of one input - risk OR return. If you follow the diversification strategy of portfolio theory, then you will generally be choosing a multiple of the market beta http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance) Your risk tolerance dictates an expected rate of return OR your desired rate of return dictates a variance of return. Of course these are averages and YMMV, but over a 30 year period there IS something approaching "steady". I think your question is perfectly stated, and gives an investment advisor all the information they need to choose an asset allocation.

barmstrong 17y ago

I think this is nit-picky and unnecessary. He is saying he wants the appropriate level of risk that would come with 4-5% return. There isn't anything unclear about it.

portman 17y ago
mos1 did a much better job than I did of indicating why the question is unclear. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1109031 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1109031