Summary: JPM estimates that if the ECB just focused on reserves equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product it could slice the rate it charges on bank deposits

Summary: JPM estimates that if the ECB just focused on reserves equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product it could slice the rate it charges on bank deposits to -4.5%. Alternatively, if the ECB were to concentrate on 25% of reserves, it would be able to cut as low as -4.64%. That compares with minus 0.3% today and the minus 0.7% JPMorgan says it could reach by the middle of this year as reported yesterday. In Japan, JPM calculates that the BOJ could go as low as -3.45% while Sweden’s is likely -3.27%. Finally, if and when the Fed joins the monetary twilight race, it could cut to -1.3% and the Bank of England to -2.69%. What could prompt the Fed to go NIRP: a recession. "With IOER at 0.5% and the Fed maintaining concerns about US money markets, the US is not close to considering NIRP. However, if recession risks were realized, the need for substantial additional policy support would likely push the Fed towards NIRP."