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> These are encouraging numbers, says Chris Urmson, director of the self-driving project, because most of the incidents occurred early on. Only five took place

> These are encouraging numbers, says Chris Urmson, director of the self-driving project, because most of the incidents occurred early on. Only five took place during the 370,000 miles driven in 11 months of 2015, Urmson wrote in a blog posted on Medium. He expects the rate of these incidents to keep declining. I mean sure he is biased, but the link doesn't really seem all that negative to be honest. Of course it will have issues in the early stages.

ocdtrekkie 11y ago
2015 isn't the first year their Self-Driving cars have been on the road. (Gotta wonder how many accidents they would've caused in 2014!) I picked a quick link while I was trying to find sources for the parent commenter's request. But the report comes from Google, to the California DMV, so you have to look at the numbers and facts, not their PR text around it. Urmson, of course, whitewashes Google's progress, it's his job. But if you look at the number of miles between safety-related takeovers, or these 'almost accidents', and compare to the estimate of human safety provided by insurance companies, it's hard to believe these cars are yet safe enough to trust on the road. The only reason they haven't been in an accident is because trained, professional humans have intervened. Self-Driving Cars will probably, eventually, be safer than humans, but Google's PR team has misled people on how far off that point is. Last year Urmson indicated that he wanted to have them ready for consumer use before his kid got his driver's license in four years. That's pretty unrealistic. Don't believe little old random Internet commenter me? Take it from Robert Scoble, who's been hyping self-driving cars for the last year: https://medium.com/@scobleizer/don-t-worry-uber-lyft-drivers-self-driving-cars-won-t-take-your-job-for-at-least-a-decade-3b8c58a7f102#.iw35iiwbi https://medium.com/@scobleizer/don-t-worry-uber-lyft-drivers... He's been to see or ride in a variety of self-driving car prototypes from a number of companies working on the problem.
- wingerlang 11y ago
  > it's hard to believe these cars are yet safe enough to trust on the road Well yeah, but is anyone expecting them to be put onto the roads in the near near future?
  - ocdtrekkie 11y ago
    Yes, which is the scary part. Google's PR seems to keep insinuating we might be able to ride in one as early as next year, or that the law is somehow a burden to the progress of this technology. There's already people advocating that California's laws requiring self-driving cars be driven by licensed drivers are potentially discriminatory, and Google's already complaining that their statistically-more-dangerous-than-people drivers currently require licensed drivers on the road: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/self-driving-cars-would-need-a-driver-under-california-rules http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/self-drivi... Given where we're at, it's insane to consider California's laws anything but reasonable. We're a long way off from the necessary confidence to allow a driverless car to run without human intervention. But Google's constant indications that this law and others like it are a problem insinuates a much higher confidence in their technology than any reasonable person should have. Frequently in these sorts of discussions I've often seen people talking about 2018 or 2019 as likely consumer release dates, which seems to be the real incredible claim needing defense.
silvestrov 11y ago
From the report that the fortune.com article links to: > In 10 of the 13 simulated contact events, the SDC’s predicted behavior would have, in simulation, caused contact (though 2 of these involved simulated contact with traffic cones). The 13 events happened in the 15 months from September 2014 to November 2015 (both incl). 424,331 miles driven. Can the average driver drive 30,000 miles without making contact with a traffic cone or another car?
- smileysteve 11y ago
  > Can the average driver drive 30,000 miles without making contact with a traffic cone or another car? The broken pylons at my closest bike lane and highway exit indicate that very few drivers can achieve this.
  - cfcef 11y ago
    That's averaged over weeks or months or however long it takes for repairs, and over however many thousands of cars pass by (the US drives trillions of miles each year).
    - smileysteve 11y ago
      Yes, and so is the 30,000 mile figure. Detail: I'm speaking in generalizations here, but it seems that small and even less traveled roads that have pylons often have these damages. Scarily, on a run today, a "lightly" traveled road in a residential area had multiple "stop for pedestrian" signs that had been knocked down. I find this particularly scary on the (non major side street) that I live - where other than residents (300ppl) and 1 business (< 300 ppl) few people should choose to drive - loses these road pylons in a matter of days.
- ocdtrekkie 11y ago
  Yes. According to this pro-Google car post (which is false, when you consider human interventions to prevent accidents), the average mileage between accidents for humans is about 165,000. I've seen claims that humans average closer to 250,000 miles driven between accidents as well. http://mashable.com/2012/08/07/google-driverless-cars-safer-than-you/#reCu16x9Mgqj http://mashable.com/2012/08/07/google-driverless-cars-safer-...
0xcde4c3db 11y ago
Another thing: > Google [...] determined that the driver prevented the self-driving car from making contact with another object 13 times. This phrasing suggests a notably lower threshold of failure than, say, "prevented a crash" or "prevented injury" or "prevented damage".
- coldtea 11y ago
  Yes, but the phrasing is also Googles and they have all the incentives to spin it that way.

ocdtrekkie 11y ago

2015 isn't the first year their Self-Driving cars have been on the road. (Gotta wonder how many accidents they would've caused in 2014!) I picked a quick link while I was trying to find sources for the parent commenter's request. But the report comes from Google, to the California DMV, so you have to look at the numbers and facts, not their PR text around it. Urmson, of course, whitewashes Google's progress, it's his job. But if you look at the number of miles between safety-related takeovers, or these 'almost accidents', and compare to the estimate of human safety provided by insurance companies, it's hard to believe these cars are yet safe enough to trust on the road. The only reason they haven't been in an accident is because trained, professional humans have intervened. Self-Driving Cars will probably, eventually, be safer than humans, but Google's PR team has misled people on how far off that point is. Last year Urmson indicated that he wanted to have them ready for consumer use before his kid got his driver's license in four years. That's pretty unrealistic. Don't believe little old random Internet commenter me? Take it from Robert Scoble, who's been hyping self-driving cars for the last year: https://medium.com/@scobleizer/don-t-worry-uber-lyft-drivers-self-driving-cars-won-t-take-your-job-for-at-least-a-decade-3b8c58a7f102#.iw35iiwbi https://medium.com/@scobleizer/don-t-worry-uber-lyft-drivers... He's been to see or ride in a variety of self-driving car prototypes from a number of companies working on the problem.

wingerlang 11y ago
> it's hard to believe these cars are yet safe enough to trust on the road Well yeah, but is anyone expecting them to be put onto the roads in the near near future?
- ocdtrekkie 11y ago
  Yes, which is the scary part. Google's PR seems to keep insinuating we might be able to ride in one as early as next year, or that the law is somehow a burden to the progress of this technology. There's already people advocating that California's laws requiring self-driving cars be driven by licensed drivers are potentially discriminatory, and Google's already complaining that their statistically-more-dangerous-than-people drivers currently require licensed drivers on the road: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/self-driving-cars-would-need-a-driver-under-california-rules http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/self-drivi... Given where we're at, it's insane to consider California's laws anything but reasonable. We're a long way off from the necessary confidence to allow a driverless car to run without human intervention. But Google's constant indications that this law and others like it are a problem insinuates a much higher confidence in their technology than any reasonable person should have. Frequently in these sorts of discussions I've often seen people talking about 2018 or 2019 as likely consumer release dates, which seems to be the real incredible claim needing defense.

silvestrov 11y ago

From the report that the fortune.com article links to: > In 10 of the 13 simulated contact events, the SDC’s predicted behavior would have, in simulation, caused contact (though 2 of these involved simulated contact with traffic cones). The 13 events happened in the 15 months from September 2014 to November 2015 (both incl). 424,331 miles driven. Can the average driver drive 30,000 miles without making contact with a traffic cone or another car?

smileysteve 11y ago
> Can the average driver drive 30,000 miles without making contact with a traffic cone or another car? The broken pylons at my closest bike lane and highway exit indicate that very few drivers can achieve this.
- cfcef 11y ago
  That's averaged over weeks or months or however long it takes for repairs, and over however many thousands of cars pass by (the US drives trillions of miles each year).
  - smileysteve 11y ago
    Yes, and so is the 30,000 mile figure. Detail: I'm speaking in generalizations here, but it seems that small and even less traveled roads that have pylons often have these damages. Scarily, on a run today, a "lightly" traveled road in a residential area had multiple "stop for pedestrian" signs that had been knocked down. I find this particularly scary on the (non major side street) that I live - where other than residents (300ppl) and 1 business (< 300 ppl) few people should choose to drive - loses these road pylons in a matter of days.
ocdtrekkie 11y ago
Yes. According to this pro-Google car post (which is false, when you consider human interventions to prevent accidents), the average mileage between accidents for humans is about 165,000. I've seen claims that humans average closer to 250,000 miles driven between accidents as well. http://mashable.com/2012/08/07/google-driverless-cars-safer-than-you/#reCu16x9Mgqj http://mashable.com/2012/08/07/google-driverless-cars-safer-...

0xcde4c3db 11y ago

Another thing: > Google [...] determined that the driver prevented the self-driving car from making contact with another object 13 times. This phrasing suggests a notably lower threshold of failure than, say, "prevented a crash" or "prevented injury" or "prevented damage".

coldtea 11y ago
Yes, but the phrasing is also Googles and they have all the incentives to spin it that way.