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Well, I think it really depends on the economics of grid storage and proximity. For instance, there was someone saying they pay $.10/kwh year round on a thread

Well, I think it really depends on the economics of grid storage and proximity. For instance, there was someone saying they pay $.10/kwh year round on a thread the other day and it was due to their proximity to grid storage. $.10 to .15/kwh is realistically the range battery technology will be in for the next 10-15 years, barring a major technological change. That simply is not going to be cost effective in many areas. EDIT: Since I can't post... http://www.computerworld.com/article/2977655/sustainable-it/as-energy-push-accelerates-battery-costs-set-to-plunge-60.html http://www.computerworld.com/article/2977655/sustainable-it/... > As energy push accelerates, battery costs set to plunge 60% > Lithium-ion (Li-on) batteries will drop from $550 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2014 to $200 per kWh by 2020; and flow battery prices will drop from $680 per kWh to $350 per kWh during the same time. A daily cycle, 5 year battery is still going to be ~$.11/kwh in 2020. You need generation + battery storage [combined] to get into the below $.15/kwh for it to make sense outside of peak June-Sept, 2-7pm times.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
> $.10 to .15/kwh is realistically the range battery technology will be in for the next 10-15 years Forgive the lack of citation, but Goldman Sachs just put out a report on Tesla within the last few days, and they're estimating the cost of batteries dropping ~60% over 5 years due to the Gigafactory producing 35GW of storage each year. EDIT: Found it, http://evannex.com/blogs/news/75718469-goldman-sachs-bullish-on-electric-vehicles-tesla-gigafactory-leading-the-charge http://evannex.com/blogs/news/75718469-goldman-sachs-bullish... "Discussing electric vehicle batteries, Goldman reports that: "technological advances play a significant role, growing economies of scale are the key driver of cost reductions. Led by Tesla and Panasonic’s 35GW Gigafactory, battery manufacturers have committed to approximately triple current production capacity over the next five years [Exhibit 36].... Autos analysts forecast the battery range for lower performance EVs to increase by over 70%, while battery costs are expected to fall by more than 60% over the next five years [Exhibit 37].""
epistasis 11y ago
Solid pricing information for large quantities of batteries is hard to get, but GM recently disclosed their price to be $145/kWh, and apparently LG Chem's other customers are paying around ~$100 more/kWh [1]. Is your $0.11/kWh price just for the stored amount at $200/kWh? That conversion factor to kWh-stored prices is more favorable than I've been using, as I've been assuming about ~1000 cycles worth of storage, but then I don't really have a good number for that. Since not all energy will need to be stored, and much (most?) can be used right away, then it will increase the overall cost of energy only by the X% that needs to be stored. So if solar is $0.05/kWh, and 50% can be used right away, then the overall cost for solar + storage would be $0.105/kWh on the generation side. Which is quite competitive already. http://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-battery-cell-pricing-video/ http://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-bat...
- fweespeech 11y ago
  > Is your $0.11/kWh price just for the stored amount at $200/kWh? That conversion factor to kWh-stored prices is more favorable than I've been using, as I've been assuming about ~1000 cycles worth of storage, but then I don't really have a good number for that. Yeah. I don't really have good numbers but Powerwalls have a 10 year guarantee iirc and many batteries have a 5 year guarantee so I was using a higher number. > Solid pricing information for large quantities of batteries is hard to get, but GM recently disclosed their price to be $145/kWh, and apparently LG Chem's other customers are paying around ~$100 more/kWh [1]. GM isn't selling it to consumers at $200/kwh but is buying them from LG Chem and its a deal for far larger production runs. GM is going to get a much better deal than you or I [who will only buy a single bank of batteries every 5 years].
  - epistasis 11y ago
    I just read that the Tesla Powerwall has a warranty to 5,000 cycles [1], which is 5x what I thought it would be. Without installation costs, that's $0.095/kWh == $3000 / (7kWh * 5000 cycles * 0.9 efficiency). Which means that consumer storage is already within your $0.11/kWh price; that's completely astounding to me, and means that on the grid scale it will be even cheaper.... I imagine that the days of peaker plants are coming to a close entirely. This conversation has made me hugely optimistic. Huge swathes of the country are already primed to go completely off grid, economically, then. If solar costs $0.06/kWh, and half of the energy is stored at $0.10/kWh, that's a total price of $0.11/kWh for an off-grid site. That's far cheaper than what I pay for electricity right now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall#cite_note-2015ecP4-9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall#cite_note-2015...

toomuchtodo 11y ago

> $.10 to .15/kwh is realistically the range battery technology will be in for the next 10-15 years Forgive the lack of citation, but Goldman Sachs just put out a report on Tesla within the last few days, and they're estimating the cost of batteries dropping ~60% over 5 years due to the Gigafactory producing 35GW of storage each year. EDIT: Found it, http://evannex.com/blogs/news/75718469-goldman-sachs-bullish-on-electric-vehicles-tesla-gigafactory-leading-the-charge http://evannex.com/blogs/news/75718469-goldman-sachs-bullish... "Discussing electric vehicle batteries, Goldman reports that: "technological advances play a significant role, growing economies of scale are the key driver of cost reductions. Led by Tesla and Panasonic’s 35GW Gigafactory, battery manufacturers have committed to approximately triple current production capacity over the next five years [Exhibit 36].... Autos analysts forecast the battery range for lower performance EVs to increase by over 70%, while battery costs are expected to fall by more than 60% over the next five years [Exhibit 37].""

epistasis 11y ago

Solid pricing information for large quantities of batteries is hard to get, but GM recently disclosed their price to be $145/kWh, and apparently LG Chem's other customers are paying around ~$100 more/kWh [1]. Is your $0.11/kWh price just for the stored amount at $200/kWh? That conversion factor to kWh-stored prices is more favorable than I've been using, as I've been assuming about ~1000 cycles worth of storage, but then I don't really have a good number for that. Since not all energy will need to be stored, and much (most?) can be used right away, then it will increase the overall cost of energy only by the X% that needs to be stored. So if solar is $0.05/kWh, and 50% can be used right away, then the overall cost for solar + storage would be $0.105/kWh on the generation side. Which is quite competitive already. http://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-battery-cell-pricing-video/ http://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-bat...

fweespeech 11y ago
> Is your $0.11/kWh price just for the stored amount at $200/kWh? That conversion factor to kWh-stored prices is more favorable than I've been using, as I've been assuming about ~1000 cycles worth of storage, but then I don't really have a good number for that. Yeah. I don't really have good numbers but Powerwalls have a 10 year guarantee iirc and many batteries have a 5 year guarantee so I was using a higher number. > Solid pricing information for large quantities of batteries is hard to get, but GM recently disclosed their price to be $145/kWh, and apparently LG Chem's other customers are paying around ~$100 more/kWh [1]. GM isn't selling it to consumers at $200/kwh but is buying them from LG Chem and its a deal for far larger production runs. GM is going to get a much better deal than you or I [who will only buy a single bank of batteries every 5 years].
- epistasis 11y ago
  I just read that the Tesla Powerwall has a warranty to 5,000 cycles [1], which is 5x what I thought it would be. Without installation costs, that's $0.095/kWh == $3000 / (7kWh * 5000 cycles * 0.9 efficiency). Which means that consumer storage is already within your $0.11/kWh price; that's completely astounding to me, and means that on the grid scale it will be even cheaper.... I imagine that the days of peaker plants are coming to a close entirely. This conversation has made me hugely optimistic. Huge swathes of the country are already primed to go completely off grid, economically, then. If solar costs $0.06/kWh, and half of the energy is stored at $0.10/kWh, that's a total price of $0.11/kWh for an off-grid site. That's far cheaper than what I pay for electricity right now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall#cite_note-2015ecP4-9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall#cite_note-2015...