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Tracking North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-4 Satellite Using OSINT
- bognition 11y agoSo how long is it before western countries intervene? NK has demonstrated that they can build nuclear bombs, they have demonstrated that they can put objects into orbit. Its only a matter of time before they can do both at the same time.
- nxzero 11y agoWhat would you suggest and why?
- madaxe_again 11y agoSome kind of war in Korea. It worked out well last time, right?
- CapitalistCartr 11y agoThe are the PROC's pet; put the screws to them to sort out Kim.
- GFK_of_xmaspast 11y agoWhat "screws" are available to use on China and why do you think their use won't backfire.
- pcrh 11y agoI don't believe that NK has demonstrated that they can build nuclear bombs... If I recall correctly, their claimed nuclear detonation was not in fact a fully-fledged nuclear explosion. Also, they are weak as heck, and can't realistically attack anyone without being annihilated. The continuous rhetoric viz-a-viz NK, both from their side and the West is quite ridiculous to behold.
- andrewchambers 11y agoThey can make fission nuclear bombs, but probably not the more powerful fusion nuclear bombs.
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- djcapelis 11y ago> So how long is it before western countries intervene? Probably as long as it takes for someone to figure out a way to do it without watching Seoul get leveled.
- dominotw 11y agoBecause its impossible atm to intervene. 1. Seoul is reachable even by conventional weapons from NK 2. China uses NK to manipulate the west. 3. NK govt has millions of their own citizens as hostage( most of them willingly so). 4. There is no proof that NK is planning to follow up their saber rattling with real attacks.
- jimmcslim 11y agoI assume the answer is 'no', but did NK liaise in anyway with the international body that governs orbital slots for satellites, or is it irrelevant for this orbit (or likely to deorbit in a few months anyway). I'm not sure what is more likely; an NK that goes all first strike, or gets a bit too ambitious in launching satellites without participating in the appropriate international processes and triggers a Kessler Syndrome event in Earth orbit.
- cperciva 11y agodeorbit in a few months anyway This makes me think of a movie plot: A rogue nation is suspected of preparing an ICBM launch, but moments after launch it becomes clear that the trajectory will take the payload into orbit and the world breathes a sigh of relief. That is, until a spy discovers that the satellite contains a nuclear weapon and is designed to deorbit a few months later and land in Washington DC...
- JshWright 11y agoThat would be well into sci-fi movie plot territory though... The atmosphere is far too variable to predict a specific deorbit point months in advance.
- theGimp 11y agoNot if you include a thruster :)
- mikeash 11y agoYou've reinvented fractional orbital bombardment: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Orbital_Bombardment_System https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Orbital_Bombardme...
- cperciva 11y agoAs far as "bad science" movie plot holes go, I don't think this would even be on the list.
- Outdoorsman 11y agoInteresting...the article posits, if frequencies can be discovered, it might be possible to intercept/capture transmissions from the satellite, when in range, using something as simple as a ham radio or SDR dongle (police scanner)... My understanding of satellite coms is that many satellites are of the "relay" class, and use TDRS--Tracking and Data Relay Satellite--to bounce signals from satellite to satellite when a ground station is not in line of sight...NASA, for instance... I wonder what the N. Korean coms protocol is...?
- viraptor 11y agoThat's assuming it's not encrypted. A lot of the data coming in is transmitted in plain right now, (comms, images, telemetry, ...) because it's just not worth encrypting, or simply could be of interest to other parties. But if anyone wants to put encryption on the data, you're not going to find out much. That said... it's passing right over me in a few minutes, so I'll be out monitoring the 4xx freqs :) Edit: in case anyone was wondering - nothing exciting happened. No sign of new signals during a perfect pass: https://i.imgur.com/rMC6gIE.png https://i.imgur.com/rMC6gIE.png (at least not at those freqs they used previously)
- Outdoorsman 11y agoAgreed... Three years ago they put a satellite in orbit...orbit is decaying for that one... Of course, there's quite a bit of speculation that they're more interested in testing rockets than orbiting a functioning satellite... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-idUSKCN0RR00R20150927 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-idUSKCN...
- VeilEm 11y ago> because it's just not worth encrypting That seems unlikely to be the reason but I don't know much about how satellites are programmed. On the terrestrial plane a $5 raspberry pi with free software can encrypt and decrypt secure communication. It's trivial and cheap to encrypt.
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- Tepix 11y agoWhy is it widely condemned when North Korea launches a satellite? Why does the article quote North Korea's "right" to explore space in a peaceful manner? Just wondering. It's not like plenty of other states are putting military satellites in orbit without asking anyone for permission.
- madaxe_again 11y agoIndeed. I'm actually impressed by the technical achievement - putting something into a (nearly) circular polar orbit is no mean feat. As for the "it's an ICBM test!" crowd - bollocks. That's like saying the Boeing 747 was a test to see if manned flight is possible - total overengineering. Also, for context, what exactly do folks think soyuz goes into space on? A magical peace rocket? No. It goes up on an R-7, which is an ICBM - the very first developed, in fact. That nasty ICBM technology has kept the ISS running. The Mercury programme redstone rockets that put Americans in space - also ballistic missiles that had had warheads replaced with crew capsules. Should America and Russia have been condemned by the world? By the standards being applied here, yes. So, shake your fist all you like, but regardless of their politics this is a technical coup, and I congratulate them on a successful launch.
- mikeash 11y agoYou say the ICBM connection is bollocks, then discuss the extensive links between the two. That seems slightly contradictory.
- gozur88 11y ago>As for the "it's an ICBM test!" crowd - bollocks. That's like saying the Boeing 747 was a test to see if manned flight is possible - total overengineering. Not true. The North Koreans aren't at the point yet where they can miniaturize nuclear bombs, so if they're going to make a system that can deliver nuclear warheads, it's going to need to be something like this.
- vpribish 11y agoyou are deeply wrong, friend. Our, and the soviet, rocket development was very clearly ICBM development - thats no secret. North Korea is quite obviously following the same path. Yes, it is a technical accomplishment - no they are not to be congratulated : do you live in a cave? They are universally condemned not because they can do engineering, but because they are an affront to civilization.
- VeilEm 11y agoI realize N Korea is pretty isolated, but China shares technology with the country right? Do engineers in N Korea go to school in China?
- yongjik 11y agoI don't think China has anything to gain by giving NK advanced rocket technology. China already have enough power to impress its neighbors and is not afraid to show it off, so there's no need to prop up a satellite nation which is barely controllable. If anything, NK rockets are a very handy excuse for Japan to re-arm itself (or continue arming itself, depending on how you look at it), and I can't imagine China liking its prospect. Meanwhile, South Korean government is already discussing plans to introduce THAAD (whatever that is) into SK, and apparently China is pretty upset about that, too. Sigh.
- gozur88 11y agoTHAAD is theater ballistic missile defense. Not sure why China would care, particularly when the South Koreans don't have nuclear weapons. There's quite a bit of evidence for nuclear armed US warships calling at South Korean ports, but US ships already have ballistic missile defenses.
- yongjik 11y agoWell, South Korea (thankfully) doesn't have nukes, but we have lots of US military bases and they can easily have nukes. Honestly, I don't see what difference a missile defense would make to SK, when North Korea can set Seoul in fire with artillery. At least I understand that having a missile defense system right in front of China will help the US in its geopolitical game against China. What I don't understand is why our politicians think it's a good idea to act as a conspicuous pawn in this game.
- gozur88 11y ago>Honestly, I don't see what difference a missile defense would make to SK, when North Korea can set Seoul in fire with artillery. While I agree the North Koreans can do a tremendous amount of damage to Seoul with artillery, these are really calculations on the strategic, nuclear level. The North Korean conventional ballistic arsenal is too small to matter very much. What they're really worried about is South Korea developing the capability to stop the North Koreans from delivering a nuclear bomb. The Chinese are probably thinking the US is more likely to nuke the North Koreans if we don't believe they can retaliate effectively. Still, it doesn't make much sense to me. If we were to make a first strike on North Korea we would get their nukes with a pretty high degree of confidence. Not that we would anyway, but the strategic consideration there is China's response, not North Korea's.
- jpatokal 11y agoSince neither the article nor the comments here mention this: it is not at all clear that the launched object was a satellite. In fact, the available evidence -- including the fact that no transmissions have ever been detected from this or its three predecessors -- points towards it being an intercontinental ballistic missile test, and the "satellite" is just a cover story. And there's precedent too: the Kwangmyongsong-1 deorbited almost immediately, but the launch was still hailed in the NK press as a total success, up to and including broadcasting songs extolling the virtues of Kims. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-1
- viraptor 11y ago> the fact that no transmissions have ever been detected from this or its three predecessors May not be true. KMS-2 supposedly played some songs for us. But wikipedia is not certain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-2#The_satellite https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-2#The...
- 13of40 11y agoIt would be hilarious if it just started broadcasting propaganda at 99.9 Mhz.
- ars 11y agoWhat's at 99.9? Just regular FM?
- viraptor 11y agoYes. Then again, you don't have to be a crazy president to do something like that. If I had spare money to build ($?) and launch ($8k http://www.gizmag.com/tubesat-personal-satellite/22211/ http://www.gizmag.com/tubesat-personal-satellite/22211/) a satellite which just circles the world and beams down nyan cat song at standard FM, I'd definitely do that.
- drewnoakes 11y agoCan frequency hopping or something similar be used to make transmissions from satellites hard or impossible to detect?