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Over a shorter term, there's the famous example of Scion Capital, which handily beat the market during its eight-year existence. And not just by a little bit; t
by 010a 11y ago
Over a shorter term, there's the famous example of Scion Capital, which handily beat the market during its eight-year existence. And not just by a little bit; the S&P saw 2% total return over those eight years whereas Scion saw around 490%, primarily but not entirely due to the fund manager's foresight of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
- tomp 11y agoScion is more of an example for the opposite point; the fund manager didn't consistently beat the market, he made one big bet that turned out to be correct; furthermore, even if this was skill, rather than luck, it still doesn't mean that this skill would apply to any other market situation.
- crnt2 11y agoThat's not quite true. Scion was up in 2001 and 2002 (when the market was down) and they beat the market in 2003 and 2004 - in each of those years, they were primarily a long-only equity fund. I'm not sure what the performance was in 2005. In 2006 they were down 16% (because of premiums on their CDS positions) which they then recouped in 2007 and early 2008.