4 ms·

> The number of people employed might. It will. > Engineer salaries are not going to drop a whole lot. Basic economics say that will follow. None of these e

> The number of people employed might. It will. > Engineer salaries are not going to drop a whole lot. Basic economics say that will follow. None of these events are isolated. They're interconnected and cascade. Everyone will be affected, even those who are flipping burgers in the Bay Area.

LoSboccacc 11y ago
> Everyone will be affected, even those who are flipping burgers in the Bay Area. hey sure there is a bubble there, but last time I checked BA wasn't caput mundi yet. Plenty non inflated startups do exist, even if not specifically there. Where the whole economy is sustained by VC money, well, there's gonna hit the hardest. But doesn't seem that the whole IT world is following that model.
- codesushi42 11y ago
  That doesn't matter in the short term. Once the inflated startups tank, everything will take a dive. Remember 2000? Maybe not. Seems like many here are too young. I'm only in my early 30s and am already feeling deja vu. Life is strange.
  - dev360 11y ago
    I recall sending my resume to over 50-60 companies for junior web dev work @ $15/hr after college and only getting two answers back. It was pretty brutal.
  - alexqgb 11y ago
    When the dot.com economy crashed, Google and Apple weren't producing billions in quarterly profits. Facebook didn't even exist. Today, the local economy is a very different thing. There's a new layer of massive and massively profitable companies that are not relying on venture money to keep their doors open. Meanwhile, a number of truly fundamental breakthroughs in AI, A/VR, genetics (CRISPR), transportation, and energy are happening simultaneously. Any one of them could trigger another tech boom, especially when corporate balance sheets have ludicrous amounts of liquidity. All five at once indicates a world-historical event in the making (think Second Industrial Revolution). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution Accordingly, there's no reason to be investing in fluff like file sharing, app-based bike delivery, or "valuable" services like Shazam when there's real work to be done. In other words, the VC correction unfolding now is exactly that, a correction (long overdue, to my mind, and an unambiguously healthy thing). It will hurt a lot of overextended people to be sure, and unprofitable companies with dubious valuations that are laying people off now are wise to get ahead of the crunch. As the squeeze tightens, salaries will even out, the balance of power will shift to employers, traffic may improve (slightly), and rents may even stop climbing. But 20-30% declines in the overall housing market? Dream on. Prices here are a function of a massive shortage, off-the-charts desirability, and deeply-rooted peculiarities in the tax code (Prop. 13), not Florida-style speculation. All of these factors are far more impervious to temporary downturns in the employment market. Having lived through the dot.com crash, I can certainly hear echoes, but deja vu it isn't. The world is now a very different place.
weeksie 11y ago
Actually, basic economics says that wages tend to be sticky.
- dilemma 11y ago
  And as a result, unemployment higher.
- codesushi42 11y ago
  /Average wages/. On a macro scale. That's not the same situation. Of course you're going to see the $150-200k premium for engineers fall once startups, funding, and jobs disappear. It's already happening in the form of cutting RSUs and bonus packages. And it has happened before. Why is it so hard to understand this?
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    Because most people here weren't around for 1999-2001.
    - codesushi42 11y ago
      Agreed. But I'm still a little surprised by this. I would expect anyone at least 30 yro to have /some/ recollection of what happened, if not a good understanding. Or to have the curiosity to find out what did. I'm 31 myself, but knew what was happening with the bubble during highschool (thanks pud and F'd company). Maybe the typical age on HN is 21? :)
      - gaius 11y ago
        Young people are just smarter, apparently. Sit back and enjoy the show.
      - majani 11y ago
        Yup. Most guys here are in their 20s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734

LoSboccacc 11y ago

> Everyone will be affected, even those who are flipping burgers in the Bay Area. hey sure there is a bubble there, but last time I checked BA wasn't caput mundi yet. Plenty non inflated startups do exist, even if not specifically there. Where the whole economy is sustained by VC money, well, there's gonna hit the hardest. But doesn't seem that the whole IT world is following that model.

codesushi42 11y ago
That doesn't matter in the short term. Once the inflated startups tank, everything will take a dive. Remember 2000? Maybe not. Seems like many here are too young. I'm only in my early 30s and am already feeling deja vu. Life is strange.
- dev360 11y ago
  I recall sending my resume to over 50-60 companies for junior web dev work @ $15/hr after college and only getting two answers back. It was pretty brutal.
- alexqgb 11y ago
  When the dot.com economy crashed, Google and Apple weren't producing billions in quarterly profits. Facebook didn't even exist. Today, the local economy is a very different thing. There's a new layer of massive and massively profitable companies that are not relying on venture money to keep their doors open. Meanwhile, a number of truly fundamental breakthroughs in AI, A/VR, genetics (CRISPR), transportation, and energy are happening simultaneously. Any one of them could trigger another tech boom, especially when corporate balance sheets have ludicrous amounts of liquidity. All five at once indicates a world-historical event in the making (think Second Industrial Revolution). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution Accordingly, there's no reason to be investing in fluff like file sharing, app-based bike delivery, or "valuable" services like Shazam when there's real work to be done. In other words, the VC correction unfolding now is exactly that, a correction (long overdue, to my mind, and an unambiguously healthy thing). It will hurt a lot of overextended people to be sure, and unprofitable companies with dubious valuations that are laying people off now are wise to get ahead of the crunch. As the squeeze tightens, salaries will even out, the balance of power will shift to employers, traffic may improve (slightly), and rents may even stop climbing. But 20-30% declines in the overall housing market? Dream on. Prices here are a function of a massive shortage, off-the-charts desirability, and deeply-rooted peculiarities in the tax code (Prop. 13), not Florida-style speculation. All of these factors are far more impervious to temporary downturns in the employment market. Having lived through the dot.com crash, I can certainly hear echoes, but deja vu it isn't. The world is now a very different place.

weeksie 11y ago

Actually, basic economics says that wages tend to be sticky.

dilemma 11y ago
And as a result, unemployment higher.
codesushi42 11y ago
/Average wages/. On a macro scale. That's not the same situation. Of course you're going to see the $150-200k premium for engineers fall once startups, funding, and jobs disappear. It's already happening in the form of cutting RSUs and bonus packages. And it has happened before. Why is it so hard to understand this?
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  Because most people here weren't around for 1999-2001.
  - codesushi42 11y ago
    Agreed. But I'm still a little surprised by this. I would expect anyone at least 30 yro to have /some/ recollection of what happened, if not a good understanding. Or to have the curiosity to find out what did. I'm 31 myself, but knew what was happening with the bubble during highschool (thanks pud and F'd company). Maybe the typical age on HN is 21? :)
    - gaius 11y ago
      Young people are just smarter, apparently. Sit back and enjoy the show.
    - majani 11y ago
      Yup. Most guys here are in their 20s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5536734