5 ms·

First of Tesla stock is down because Detroit Auto Show has put a steady stream of EVs and PHEVs. At least in the immediate future Tesla is not going to own the

by sremani 11y ago

First of Tesla stock is down because Detroit Auto Show has put a steady stream of EVs and PHEVs. At least in the immediate future Tesla is not going to own the low-end market. They are still executing their high-end. On battery side, LGChem and Samsung are doing great job and Tesla battery chemistry is neither that different or superior to them, so there is absolutely no differentiation there. Tesla stock is over priced, once the German Luxuries esp. BMW arm themselves with batteries there is going to be stupendous completion that would not justify their market value. On top of this, you have Apple getting into the think of things, at least rumors of it.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
> BMW arm themselves with batteries Tesla will be consuming 2013's entire world production of lithium batteries in ~2 years. Please, enlighten me, where is BMW going to source cells from? Where will you find these youth drivers who don't want autopilot, and prefer "the ultimate driving experience"?
- sjm-lbm 11y ago
  BMW will get "youth drivers" exactly the same place it currently gets them: nowhere, because those people don't buy BMWs. BMW's goal in EVs is to hold on to the segment of the market that they have. Tesla's goal is to capture a market that they don't currently have - and that's harder. It's much harder when they have many legitimate competitors, and it is starting to look like they will have much more competition very soon.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    Tesla is already starting to consume much of the luxury segment: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us-tesla-model-s-2015-sales-comparison/ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us...
    - dogma1138 11y ago
      This isn't the most correct analysis, the cares are comparable in price but not in the actual category the Tesla is anything but a Luxury car as far as the internals go, it is currently a hip status symbol just like the iPhone was (and is) but it could just as much turn out to be an iWatch down the line. Tesla doesn't publish very detailed sales figures and there isn't that market research into it (at least public one) yet, currently it seems that many people are buying a Tesla as a second (or even 3rd, 4th etc ;)) car as people who can afford to buy a 100,000$ car usually will have more than 1. From anecdotal experience I've also noticed that quite a few of the people who buy through finance / lease a Tesla really can't afford one but like many people who end up buying a 800$ phone do - simply because it makes them feel better. Tesla owners currently enjoy quite a bit of perks that traditional car owners do not, the insurance rates tend to be quite preferable (most likely partially subsidized by Tesla it self), the finance options are also one of the best in the market (In the UK I can pretty much get a 100% finance on a Tesla which costs about my yearly pre-tax income, considering the cost of living and the taxes I pay I would technically will not be able to afford it, I can't get any thing close to this for other cars which cost 100K GBP for example), this is not that dissimilar than how Apple pushed a very expensive handset at the time through their partnered carriers but phones aren't cars so it yet to be seen how it will work out. Most Tesla owners haven't owned the car for longer than a year atm, the average life span of a car in the US is still about 10 years, there isn't enough data currently to know how the Tesla secondary market will work out (the current "secondary" market sells cars that are usually couple of months in use for almost the same price as a new one), what will the end TCO of a Tesla be after say 5 years to both the end consumer and the company. Luxury cars in the US have a very well established secondary market with buy backs and dealerships that specialize in reselling cars that tend to hold the value quite well (this is especially true to the more boutique cars like Jags). Some cars are have also very specific markets in the US (and any where else) e.g. while pretty much anyone will want to drive a BMW 5/7 series or a high end Audi not that many people will go for a Jag or a range rover these days. Tesla has had a very good market penetration but it's really too early to tell what it means, and with a large part of it's costumers buying it because it's cool and because of it's environment impact (or lack there off) could also quite likely look at other EV options when some actually arrive on the market.
- sremani 11y ago
  Samsung SDI is providing BMW with Battery. GM is getting it from LGChem. The whole myth of Tesla being the Apple of Car Battery supplies is just that myth.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - voodoomagicman 11y ago
    It doesn't seem like a myth at all - tesla could be the Apple in that its vertically integrated w/ a tightly controlled supply chain and an ecosystem producing lock-in (superchargers), capturing the high end of the market and most of the profit in the industry. GM and BWM would be the android device manufacturers - assembling 3rd party components, poorly differentiated, initially not competitive on quality but eventually catching up, while competition w/ each other prevents any of them from achieving profits comparable to Tesla.
vvanders 11y ago
Remember when BMW couldn't update their cars with auto-park after the regulators gave to go head? I'm not all that worried about Tesla. Their competencies are in Software and the Supercharger/Battery Infra. No one is going to come close to that in 5-10 years at a minimum.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  I look forward to Tesla releasing self-driving ridesharing in the next few years. Can't afford a Tesla? Pay per ride!
  - matheweis 11y ago
    That won't be from Tesla, but rather from Uber. They poached Carnegie Mellon's entire robotics department, among others to focus on this goal.
    - toomuchtodo 11y ago
      Under circumstances, possibly, if they're not sued out of business first.
  - prostoalex 11y ago
    http://tesloop.com/ http://tesloop.com/
    - toomuchtodo 11y ago
      http://www.techinsider.io/elon-musk-hints-tesla-may-enter-ride-sharing-space-2015-11 http://www.techinsider.io/elon-musk-hints-tesla-may-enter-ri... Tesla CEO Elon Musk seemingly confirmed on Tuesday that the company is working on a strategy for getting into transportation services. During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings conference call, Musk was asked if the company was planning to get into an Uber-like business. Musk tried to keep mum, but when pressed he hinted that the company was at least entertaining the idea. “There is a right time to make announcements and this is not that time,” Musk said during the call. He added that the strategy for such a service was not yet “fully-baked,” which implies the company does in fact have some semblance of a strategy.

by sremani 11y ago

toomuchtodo 11y ago

> BMW arm themselves with batteries Tesla will be consuming 2013's entire world production of lithium batteries in ~2 years. Please, enlighten me, where is BMW going to source cells from? Where will you find these youth drivers who don't want autopilot, and prefer "the ultimate driving experience"?

sjm-lbm 11y ago
BMW will get "youth drivers" exactly the same place it currently gets them: nowhere, because those people don't buy BMWs. BMW's goal in EVs is to hold on to the segment of the market that they have. Tesla's goal is to capture a market that they don't currently have - and that's harder. It's much harder when they have many legitimate competitors, and it is starting to look like they will have much more competition very soon.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  Tesla is already starting to consume much of the luxury segment: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us-tesla-model-s-2015-sales-comparison/ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us...
  - dogma1138 11y ago
    This isn't the most correct analysis, the cares are comparable in price but not in the actual category the Tesla is anything but a Luxury car as far as the internals go, it is currently a hip status symbol just like the iPhone was (and is) but it could just as much turn out to be an iWatch down the line. Tesla doesn't publish very detailed sales figures and there isn't that market research into it (at least public one) yet, currently it seems that many people are buying a Tesla as a second (or even 3rd, 4th etc ;)) car as people who can afford to buy a 100,000$ car usually will have more than 1. From anecdotal experience I've also noticed that quite a few of the people who buy through finance / lease a Tesla really can't afford one but like many people who end up buying a 800$ phone do - simply because it makes them feel better. Tesla owners currently enjoy quite a bit of perks that traditional car owners do not, the insurance rates tend to be quite preferable (most likely partially subsidized by Tesla it self), the finance options are also one of the best in the market (In the UK I can pretty much get a 100% finance on a Tesla which costs about my yearly pre-tax income, considering the cost of living and the taxes I pay I would technically will not be able to afford it, I can't get any thing close to this for other cars which cost 100K GBP for example), this is not that dissimilar than how Apple pushed a very expensive handset at the time through their partnered carriers but phones aren't cars so it yet to be seen how it will work out. Most Tesla owners haven't owned the car for longer than a year atm, the average life span of a car in the US is still about 10 years, there isn't enough data currently to know how the Tesla secondary market will work out (the current "secondary" market sells cars that are usually couple of months in use for almost the same price as a new one), what will the end TCO of a Tesla be after say 5 years to both the end consumer and the company. Luxury cars in the US have a very well established secondary market with buy backs and dealerships that specialize in reselling cars that tend to hold the value quite well (this is especially true to the more boutique cars like Jags). Some cars are have also very specific markets in the US (and any where else) e.g. while pretty much anyone will want to drive a BMW 5/7 series or a high end Audi not that many people will go for a Jag or a range rover these days. Tesla has had a very good market penetration but it's really too early to tell what it means, and with a large part of it's costumers buying it because it's cool and because of it's environment impact (or lack there off) could also quite likely look at other EV options when some actually arrive on the market.
sremani 11y ago
Samsung SDI is providing BMW with Battery. GM is getting it from LGChem. The whole myth of Tesla being the Apple of Car Battery supplies is just that myth.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- voodoomagicman 11y ago
  It doesn't seem like a myth at all - tesla could be the Apple in that its vertically integrated w/ a tightly controlled supply chain and an ecosystem producing lock-in (superchargers), capturing the high end of the market and most of the profit in the industry. GM and BWM would be the android device manufacturers - assembling 3rd party components, poorly differentiated, initially not competitive on quality but eventually catching up, while competition w/ each other prevents any of them from achieving profits comparable to Tesla.

vvanders 11y ago

Remember when BMW couldn't update their cars with auto-park after the regulators gave to go head? I'm not all that worried about Tesla. Their competencies are in Software and the Supercharger/Battery Infra. No one is going to come close to that in 5-10 years at a minimum.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
I look forward to Tesla releasing self-driving ridesharing in the next few years. Can't afford a Tesla? Pay per ride!
- matheweis 11y ago
  That won't be from Tesla, but rather from Uber. They poached Carnegie Mellon's entire robotics department, among others to focus on this goal.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    Under circumstances, possibly, if they're not sued out of business first.
- prostoalex 11y ago
  http://tesloop.com/ http://tesloop.com/
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    http://www.techinsider.io/elon-musk-hints-tesla-may-enter-ride-sharing-space-2015-11 http://www.techinsider.io/elon-musk-hints-tesla-may-enter-ri... Tesla CEO Elon Musk seemingly confirmed on Tuesday that the company is working on a strategy for getting into transportation services. During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings conference call, Musk was asked if the company was planning to get into an Uber-like business. Musk tried to keep mum, but when pressed he hinted that the company was at least entertaining the idea. “There is a right time to make announcements and this is not that time,” Musk said during the call. He added that the strategy for such a service was not yet “fully-baked,” which implies the company does in fact have some semblance of a strategy.