9 ms·
This is overblown and the stock price being low is probably short sightedness (again) on the east coast due to oil prices. The Model X enabled Tesla to use the
by fossuser 11y ago
This is overblown and the stock price being low is probably short sightedness (again) on the east coast due to oil prices.
The Model X enabled Tesla to use the same core as the Model S while building and testing some new features during the construction of their giga-factory that will enable the Model 3. It also allows Tesla to stay in the press during that time (demonstrating new features, talking about the new car etc.).
While delivery is a little delayed they've already sold over sixteen thousand Model Xs - I don't agree that it was a mistake.
- dragontamer 11y agoStock price isn't low at all. TSLA is still considered a bigger company than Fiat / Chrysler... by a significant margin... at its current price. East Coast guys are thinking "wtf? How can Fiat / Crysler / Dodge / Jeep / Ram / Ferrari COMBINED" be worth less than a company who currently only makes two cars?
- toomuchtodo 11y agoImagine if GM owned ExxonMobil. That's a better example of what Tesla is (an energy storage company that sells a product that uses their core product).
- sremani 11y agoFirst of Tesla stock is down because Detroit Auto Show has put a steady stream of EVs and PHEVs. At least in the immediate future Tesla is not going to own the low-end market. They are still executing their high-end. On battery side, LGChem and Samsung are doing great job and Tesla battery chemistry is neither that different or superior to them, so there is absolutely no differentiation there. Tesla stock is over priced, once the German Luxuries esp. BMW arm themselves with batteries there is going to be stupendous completion that would not justify their market value. On top of this, you have Apple getting into the think of things, at least rumors of it.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago> BMW arm themselves with batteries Tesla will be consuming 2013's entire world production of lithium batteries in ~2 years. Please, enlighten me, where is BMW going to source cells from? Where will you find these youth drivers who don't want autopilot, and prefer "the ultimate driving experience"?
- sjm-lbm 11y agoBMW will get "youth drivers" exactly the same place it currently gets them: nowhere, because those people don't buy BMWs. BMW's goal in EVs is to hold on to the segment of the market that they have. Tesla's goal is to capture a market that they don't currently have - and that's harder. It's much harder when they have many legitimate competitors, and it is starting to look like they will have much more competition very soon.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoTesla is already starting to consume much of the luxury segment: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us-tesla-model-s-2015-sales-comparison/ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us...
- dogma1138 11y agoThis isn't the most correct analysis, the cares are comparable in price but not in the actual category the Tesla is anything but a Luxury car as far as the internals go, it is currently a hip status symbol just like the iPhone was (and is) but it could just as much turn out to be an iWatch down the line. Tesla doesn't publish very detailed sales figures and there isn't that market research into it (at least public one) yet, currently it seems that many people are buying a Tesla as a second (or even 3rd, 4th etc ;)) car as people who can afford to buy a 100,000$ car usually will have more than 1. From anecdotal experience I've also noticed that quite a few of the people who buy through finance / lease a Tesla really can't afford one but like many people who end up buying a 800$ phone do - simply because it makes them feel better. Tesla owners currently enjoy quite a bit of perks that traditional car owners do not, the insurance rates tend to be quite preferable (most likely partially subsidized by Tesla it self), the finance options are also one of the best in the market (In the UK I can pretty much get a 100% finance on a Tesla which costs about my yearly pre-tax income, considering the cost of living and the taxes I pay I would technically will not be able to afford it, I can't get any thing close to this for other cars which cost 100K GBP for example), this is not that dissimilar than how Apple pushed a very expensive handset at the time through their partnered carriers but phones aren't cars so it yet to be seen how it will work out. Most Tesla owners haven't owned the car for longer than a year atm, the average life span of a car in the US is still about 10 years, there isn't enough data currently to know how the Tesla secondary market will work out (the current "secondary" market sells cars that are usually couple of months in use for almost the same price as a new one), what will the end TCO of a Tesla be after say 5 years to both the end consumer and the company. Luxury cars in the US have a very well established secondary market with buy backs and dealerships that specialize in reselling cars that tend to hold the value quite well (this is especially true to the more boutique cars like Jags). Some cars are have also very specific markets in the US (and any where else) e.g. while pretty much anyone will want to drive a BMW 5/7 series or a high end Audi not that many people will go for a Jag or a range rover these days. Tesla has had a very good market penetration but it's really too early to tell what it means, and with a large part of it's costumers buying it because it's cool and because of it's environment impact (or lack there off) could also quite likely look at other EV options when some actually arrive on the market.
- jklein11 11y agoExxonMobil isn't quite an energy storage company. It is an energy retailer. Tesla's batteries are more similar to a gas tank, which GM already produces.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoGM doesn't produce gas tanks to hold the tens of GWs of clean, cheap renewable energy the world is bringing online each year.
- dragontamer 11y agoWrong. Tesla buys its cells from Panasonic. Panasonic owns half the gigafactory (the Lithium Ion half). Tesla only buys Li-Ion cells from Panasonic and then assembles them into batteries. I can agree that there is some efficiency in this arrangement (cells and batteries made inside the same facility), but don't get ahead of yourself. Tesla is only assembling batteries. Panasonic makes the 18650 cells. GM and Ford build their own batteries too for their own fleet of vehicles, supplied from LG Chem. The benefits of scale seem to benefit the joint effort between GM + Ford + LG Chem, and the topology of Detroit (which has tons of railroads and shipyards that GM / Ford / LG Chem can leverage).
- toomuchtodo 11y agoRight, a joint partnership. I'll be worried as soon as I see legacy automakers building their own battery factories. Until then, good luck!
- dragontamer 11y agohttp://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/21/gm-without-lg-chem-we-couldnt-build-bolt-ev/ http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/21/gm-without-lg-chem-we-cou... I bet you Bolt EV hits consumer market before TSLA Model 3. But yeah, GM owns its own battery factory. Is it the same size as Tesla's?? No. But I think its a smarter move to build the factories after demand has proven itself. Tesla expects the Model 3 to sell out. Anything less than "amazing" will make the Gigafactory not worth its billions-upon-billions of dollars of investment.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoI don't disagree the Bolt gets here first. The Leaf got here first too. I don't see the Leaf selling out. I don't see the Bolt selling out either. > Tesla expects the Model 3 to sell out. Anything less than "amazing" will make the Gigafactory not worth its billions-upon-billions of dollars of investment. Even if the Model 3 doesn't sell out, there are utility customers clamoring for stationary storage, first to replace peaking plant capacity, and then down the value chain as more utility scale wind and solar come online.
- Riod 11y agoExcept Tesla licenses their battery tech from Panasonic. Says so in the 10-K. Anyone else is free to make a deal with Panasonic
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- dragontamer 11y agoTesla has their own battery technology. But the chemistry belongs to Panasonic, who creates cells. You combine cells (like the 18650) together to create batteries. The Gigafactory is trying to make 26650 cells, which should be more efficient in cars than the 18650 cells (which were originally designed for laptops) Tesla's use of 18650 was highly innovative. They "hacked" growth into their company by taking advantage of the scale and scope of laptop manufacturers. But now that TSLA is one of the largest users of Lithium Ion in the world, they need to come up with a more efficient, car-specific cell design now.
- Riod 11y agoThat's exactly it. They haven't yet. Right now what they do is assembly. Look up what Chanos said about Tesla.
- danhak 11y agoI don't believe that's true. Could you please paste the pertinent text from the 10-K? I was not able to find it. As far as I know the cell chemistry in use was developed jointly and I believe Tesla holds patent although I'm not able to find a source at the moment.
- dragontamer 11y agohttps://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tesla-and-panasonic-collaborate-develop-nextgeneration-battery-cell-technology https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tesla-and-panasonic-collabo... > “Being selected by Tesla to provide cells for their current and next- generation EV battery pack is a tremendous validation of Panasonic’s nickel-based chemistry and the extensive investments Panasonic continues to make in lithium ion R&D and production,” said Naoto Noguchi, President of Panasonic Energy Company. TSLA patents are in regards to batteries: collections of cells working together. But the Lithium needs to be turned into a cell... before collections of cells can turn into a battery.
- jgalt212 11y ago> an energy storage company that sells a product that uses their core product That's that TSLA wants you to think they have the potential of being because they havr to be known as something more than a car company to keep the stock price up.
- taf2 11y agotwo of the best cars ever
- redthrowaway 11y agoWith worldwide sales approaching the US sales of the Jeep Liberty.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoYou're going to compare it to Jeep Liberty sales volume when its consuming the entire top end of the luxury market? http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us-tesla-model-s-2015-sales-comparison/ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/15/1-large-luxury-car-in-us... "As we all know, Tesla doesn’t report sales/deliveries by country. However, various outlets estimate Tesla sales using a variety of methods. EV Obsession estimated 26,566 Tesla Model S sales in the US in 2015. Rob notes that the lowest estimate was 24,200. In either case, the Model S outsold the Mercedes S-Class, the BMW 7-Series, the BMW 6-Series, the Audi A7, the Audi A8, the Porsche Panamera, and every other car in this class."
- redthrowaway 11y agoThe point is that Tesla doesn't move anywhere near enough volume or generate anywhere near enough sales to justify its market cap. Its previous valuation was almost entirely a prediction of future revenues rather than a reflection of current ones. And it's hard to say what class the Model S fits in. I don't think 7 or S is right, despite the price point. Those are both full-size luxury sedans, and while the Model S may be a full-size sedan, it's hardly luxury. Its interior is closer to a 3-series or E-class than the top-of-the range luxobarges. That's not a knock on build quality, just the reality of battery power currently being much more expensive than ICE. You've got to shave cost somewhere, and Tesla shaved it off luxury.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- tn13 11y agoIf someone thinks East Coast guys are stupid they are free to buy the stock and make windfall profits here. East coast guys are more often known for being over optimistic (just like any human beings) rather than under optimisitic.
- njharman 11y agoI've already made $60k on $20k investment. Not recently though.
- njharman 11y agoThe company makes batteries. Partnerned with one of biggest battery suppliers on giant new battery factory. That it's batteries currently go into cars, and home/industrial storage systems is happenstance of the moment.
- dragontamer 11y agoGm makes batteries. Ford makes batteries. Everyone makes batteries. If you want to impress me, find me a car company that also males cells. All TSLA cells are from Panasonic. In fact, Panasonic owns a huge chunk of the gigafactory.
- Riod 11y agoNot to mention Porsche is coming out with their own electric vehicle. And Porsche always delivers. The Macan is ridiculously good looking. I'd say the Tesla is going to find a ton of stiff competition
- XJOKOLAT 11y agoThe Macan? Good looking? Maybe I'm missing something. Any Macan I've seen is ugly as hell. Maybe you mean the new Porsche E vehicle. Also, depends on the like-for-like. I'd be surprised if Porsche release a car which competes with the model 3. They won't. They'll compete at the model S level and that's it (in terms of price, I mean). Let's face it. This is a battle for Tesla to lose. If they get it right they'll sew it up. It's all in the execution from here out.
- prostoalex 11y agoFiat/Chrysler et al. own the final assembly piece, but a lot of the materials come from a network of automotive parts suppliers, like Delphi Automotive and what not. Interesting part about Tesla is how much of the product they actually own, versus buying a part here and a part there.
- andrewtbham 11y agoThe person who sets the tone for the discussion about Tesla is Morgan Stanley analyst, Adam Jonas. You have to bank at Morgan Stanley to get his reports. All the news outlets requote his material. This is not "overblown" but it is old, second hand news and it is part of why the stock is down. "On Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas slashed his target price on Tesla stock to 333 from 450, reports noted, citing concerns about extra costs tied to the Model X launch delay." http://www.investors.com/news/technology/tesla-stock-turns-low-rider-before-earnings-as-demand-questioned/ http://www.investors.com/news/technology/tesla-stock-turns-l...
- anonu 11y agoEhh... nobody can really set the tone. Most analysts don't know jack. What a lot of analysts do is look at comparables. What can you compare Tesla to? The answer is pretty much nothing. There's no company that does what it does. You can only bank on growth and expected growth - and earnings means nothing at this early stage in Tesla's development. I would also not make any claim that Tesla's recent product rollout has failed - or use its stock price as a proxy for that decision. The near-term effect of $30 oil is quite impactful on many industries in many ways which we still have yet to fully comprehend. It could be that $30 oil is Tesla's undoing, simply because people don't need electric cars. We just don't know yet.
- Riod 11y agoA company can make good products and still be overvalued.
- ilvnvtoomuch 11y agoI'm not sure why Autoblog is giving stock analysis. Tesla's stock will be determined by sales, revenue and global rollout. Autoblog's vehicle opinion is irrelevant.