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Though the outcome is a bit worse than I think most predicted, this has been telegraphed since about November of last year. Tableau has had a very high short i

Though the outcome is a bit worse than I think most predicted, this has been telegraphed since about November of last year. Tableau has had a very high short interest ratio for sometime, everyone was expecting poor results. What really exacerbated their issue was that they didn't get out in front of this and let people know how bad they were going to miss. So when they released earnings everything went to shit on them. I can't really find any excuse for this that passes Occam's razor except to assume this is a very rookie CFO /CEO combo in charge. I made a comment about 3 months ago saying that 2010-2014 were very kind to new tech IPO's and 2016 would be the year that companies would have to either make money or face the consequences. I'm following this over the next 2 weeks to see what the stock does. Its now a pretty good Pre-Merger Arbitrage(take over candidate) candidate. - Market cap under 5 Billion, check - Institutional owner ship > 50%, check - Insiders hold less than 5% of the company, check,in fact its at 1.09%, wow, management doesn't even want to own the company! - below its IPO price, not yet, that was $31 but its still falling.

roymurdock 11y ago
Do you have any insights into how badly core infrastructure institutional investors are going to get hit when these large, institutional-owned tech companies deflate? Any metrics on how much of the equities market is owned by pension/retirement vs. free, non-dependent, non-core institutional investments?
- chollida1 11y ago
  Hmm, I do, but I probably shouldn't be talking publicly about it as I got most of them from sell side analysts. Privately disclosing them is different, Message me if you want numbers.
jonknee 11y ago
It would make a nice acquisition for Microsoft...
- TheLogothete 11y ago
  Not after all the investment in powerbi, sadly.
  - greggyb 11y ago
    About the time Power BI was hitting general availability, Microsoft was announcing the acquisition of Datazen, an alternative mobile dashboarding solution. Both technologies are components of SSRS in SQL Server 2016. Acquisitions aren't out of the question where MS BI is concerned, even with apparent conflicts in product.
  - fidget 11y ago
    Sunk cost
- IndianAstronaut 11y ago
  Tableau wrotes the worst queries for Microsoft SQL Server products.
  - ansgri 11y ago
    Then MS could improve the product by teaching them the correct ways or to make specific SQL Server optimizations. More reasons for acquisition.
kgwgk 11y ago
> everyone was expecting poor results. Maybe the people buying yesterday didn't expect poor results. Or at least they expected the kind of poor results that would make the stock go up. Definitely it did come out "a bit worse" that they predicted.
this_user 11y ago
LinkedIn got crushed today in a very similar fashion on weak earnings. So, it's not just Tableau. In fact, the whole tech sector is starting to show some weakness which can be seen from the NASDAQ's recent performance. A lot of last year's tech-related IPOs have also performed terribly (e.g. Etsy, Box, Match, First Data, Square). Especially recently a lot of the previous momentum darlings like Apple, Amazon and Netflix have started rolling over, too. Facebook and Google were holding much better after strong earnings, but even those are starting to show signs of weakness now. Seems like we might be at the end of the phase of explosive growth over the last couple of years.

roymurdock 11y ago

Do you have any insights into how badly core infrastructure institutional investors are going to get hit when these large, institutional-owned tech companies deflate? Any metrics on how much of the equities market is owned by pension/retirement vs. free, non-dependent, non-core institutional investments?

chollida1 11y ago
Hmm, I do, but I probably shouldn't be talking publicly about it as I got most of them from sell side analysts. Privately disclosing them is different, Message me if you want numbers.

jonknee 11y ago

It would make a nice acquisition for Microsoft...

TheLogothete 11y ago
Not after all the investment in powerbi, sadly.
- greggyb 11y ago
  About the time Power BI was hitting general availability, Microsoft was announcing the acquisition of Datazen, an alternative mobile dashboarding solution. Both technologies are components of SSRS in SQL Server 2016. Acquisitions aren't out of the question where MS BI is concerned, even with apparent conflicts in product.
- fidget 11y ago
  Sunk cost
IndianAstronaut 11y ago
Tableau wrotes the worst queries for Microsoft SQL Server products.
- ansgri 11y ago
  Then MS could improve the product by teaching them the correct ways or to make specific SQL Server optimizations. More reasons for acquisition.

kgwgk 11y ago

> everyone was expecting poor results. Maybe the people buying yesterday didn't expect poor results. Or at least they expected the kind of poor results that would make the stock go up. Definitely it did come out "a bit worse" that they predicted.

this_user 11y ago

LinkedIn got crushed today in a very similar fashion on weak earnings. So, it's not just Tableau. In fact, the whole tech sector is starting to show some weakness which can be seen from the NASDAQ's recent performance. A lot of last year's tech-related IPOs have also performed terribly (e.g. Etsy, Box, Match, First Data, Square). Especially recently a lot of the previous momentum darlings like Apple, Amazon and Netflix have started rolling over, too. Facebook and Google were holding much better after strong earnings, but even those are starting to show signs of weakness now. Seems like we might be at the end of the phase of explosive growth over the last couple of years.