4 ms·

I wouldn't imagine there's much of a market for small-arms design. It's an old-school, natural-monopoly sort of subject, one of those for which the slow, carefu

I wouldn't imagine there's much of a market for small-arms design. It's an old-school, natural-monopoly sort of subject, one of those for which the slow, careful, bureaucratic model that Paul Graham (correctly!) condemns for software was originally devised. So I'd expect three things to drive down the value of small-arms designers: the point that variable costs are much higher than fixed ones in small-arms manufacturing; the presence of bureaucratic inertia in the militaries and police agencies who represent the main customers; and the fact that the problem domain is very well-understood and has been for quite some time. The AK-47 is showing its age, but is still viable; the H&K G3, the FN FAL, and the M-14 are all around 60 years old (the M-16 is a newcomer at 50 years, and the "space-age" bullpups, the Steyr AUG and SA80, are around 30); and the Colt M1911 was designed before the First World War and, from what I understand, is still one of the best pistols on the market. There are a few "cutting-edge" weapons that are just coming into use -- the Tavor and the H&K G36, most obviously -- but I think these reflect a change in the perceived threat environment more than an advance in technology. So, in other words: I'm not sure that there's very much to _do_ in the field of small-arms design. There are some small, innovative companies in the field -- Calico Light Weapons Systems is an obvious one -- but the problem with being a small, innovative manufacturer of firearms is that you don't have much of a market. Even when Bill Clinton _isn't_ in office, private citizens will never spend the kind of money on small arms that governments do. I want to emphasize that I'm coming at this from the perspective of an interested amateur, and my interest is more in infantry tactics than in the weapons they use to implement them -- so there may be factors here that I don't know about. I'd second the recommendations by hga and gexla: contact people who know more about this, but, I'd say, prepare to be a little disappointed. (Aerospace engineering strikes me as being a field which is still evolving, and thus ought to be more promising for someone with an interest in designing weapons systems.)

hga 17y ago
Actually, the US civilian market is very big (heck, consumption of ammo is above 5 billion rounds a year). Enough that FN has been pleasantly surprised by demand for the PS90, civilians are snapping up SCARs as fast as FN can make civilian models above the demands of the military (they made lemonade out of a batch of aluminum receiver parts that had been anodized to the wrong shade and sold them as a special edition). The nationwide sweep of shall issue concealed carry licensing has sharply increased demand for carry handguns. While people like me are happy with modernized M1911s for full sized guns, others aren't and new popular models are still coming out. Probably the biggest explosion is in "mouseguns", small .380 or 9mm handguns that are easier to conceal, especially in the summer. Many new models have come out recently. I'd say the area of "black guns" (widely construed, not just AR-15 derived) is pretty healthy. Lots of stuff happening with AR-15 pattern guns (including driving them with pistons), lots of people looking for alternatives and various companies are delivering in one way or another. Compared to aerospace, there's got to be hundreds more companies that someone could go to work for. Aerospace went bust in the early '70s and never recovered. The US civilian firearms market may be iffy as the economy continues to sour and the Democrats continue to treat gun control like a new third rail, but I'd sure pick firearms over aerospace, if for no other reason than there being such a range of OEMs (in sizes, from garage sized outfits to giants like FN, S&W and Ruger).
- dkimball 17y ago
  Very, very interesting -- and if I habitually wore a hat, I think I'd have to eat it at this point. :)
  - hga 17y ago
    Heh ... in all fairness, I'm pretty sure I only developed this level of understanding of the US firearms industry in the last few years, and part of it is my focus on FN (my family has been buying their stuff for a long time, going back to a FN marked 16 gauge Browning Auto-5 that my grandfather or father bought in the '30s or '40s). One of the things that caught my eye about FN was the reason for their fidelity to the US civilian market: unlike government sales, it's reliable and fair (you don't have to bribe us to buy FN :-). Hmmm, now that I think about it, I'll bet the US civilian market earned back the development costs for the P90, it's intended market disappeared (designed to penetrate Warsaw Pact body armor with ammo we can't buy) and other sales have been limited. But Americans just love the little puppies (hey, it's really innovative and looks like a weapon of the future, I'm sure it's use on StarGate didn't hurt, and it's well featured in anime) ... if I could afford a "fun" gun I'd buy one in a second. Plus I don't like direct impingement (the AR-10/15 design) so I've paid close attention to all the alternatives, of which there are many. And e.g. bought a SIG-556, which is the love child of a SIG-551 and an M4 (stamped steel upper, forged aluminum lower (which shaves off a pound which my RSI limited arms really appreciate)) and was impressed by the aftermarket parts activity for this fairly obscure gun (they'd only sold 10s of thousands). Plus buying a mousegun is next on my list, after .380 ammo becomes available again.
    - digamber_kamat 17y ago
      Guys you had a very informative discussion here nevertheless I am not interested in knowing if it is a good career whether is has good opportunities etc. Of course nothing wrong in your assuming it so given the way I had framed the question. Motive was to do a self study in that area. I am very sure that security concerns at all levels will only increase over the next 10-20 years and there is a scope for lot of innovative stuff.

hga 17y ago

Actually, the US civilian market is very big (heck, consumption of ammo is above 5 billion rounds a year). Enough that FN has been pleasantly surprised by demand for the PS90, civilians are snapping up SCARs as fast as FN can make civilian models above the demands of the military (they made lemonade out of a batch of aluminum receiver parts that had been anodized to the wrong shade and sold them as a special edition). The nationwide sweep of shall issue concealed carry licensing has sharply increased demand for carry handguns. While people like me are happy with modernized M1911s for full sized guns, others aren't and new popular models are still coming out. Probably the biggest explosion is in "mouseguns", small .380 or 9mm handguns that are easier to conceal, especially in the summer. Many new models have come out recently. I'd say the area of "black guns" (widely construed, not just AR-15 derived) is pretty healthy. Lots of stuff happening with AR-15 pattern guns (including driving them with pistons), lots of people looking for alternatives and various companies are delivering in one way or another. Compared to aerospace, there's got to be hundreds more companies that someone could go to work for. Aerospace went bust in the early '70s and never recovered. The US civilian firearms market may be iffy as the economy continues to sour and the Democrats continue to treat gun control like a new third rail, but I'd sure pick firearms over aerospace, if for no other reason than there being such a range of OEMs (in sizes, from garage sized outfits to giants like FN, S&W and Ruger).

dkimball 17y ago
Very, very interesting -- and if I habitually wore a hat, I think I'd have to eat it at this point. :)
- hga 17y ago
  Heh ... in all fairness, I'm pretty sure I only developed this level of understanding of the US firearms industry in the last few years, and part of it is my focus on FN (my family has been buying their stuff for a long time, going back to a FN marked 16 gauge Browning Auto-5 that my grandfather or father bought in the '30s or '40s). One of the things that caught my eye about FN was the reason for their fidelity to the US civilian market: unlike government sales, it's reliable and fair (you don't have to bribe us to buy FN :-). Hmmm, now that I think about it, I'll bet the US civilian market earned back the development costs for the P90, it's intended market disappeared (designed to penetrate Warsaw Pact body armor with ammo we can't buy) and other sales have been limited. But Americans just love the little puppies (hey, it's really innovative and looks like a weapon of the future, I'm sure it's use on StarGate didn't hurt, and it's well featured in anime) ... if I could afford a "fun" gun I'd buy one in a second. Plus I don't like direct impingement (the AR-10/15 design) so I've paid close attention to all the alternatives, of which there are many. And e.g. bought a SIG-556, which is the love child of a SIG-551 and an M4 (stamped steel upper, forged aluminum lower (which shaves off a pound which my RSI limited arms really appreciate)) and was impressed by the aftermarket parts activity for this fairly obscure gun (they'd only sold 10s of thousands). Plus buying a mousegun is next on my list, after .380 ammo becomes available again.
  - digamber_kamat 17y ago
    Guys you had a very informative discussion here nevertheless I am not interested in knowing if it is a good career whether is has good opportunities etc. Of course nothing wrong in your assuming it so given the way I had framed the question. Motive was to do a self study in that area. I am very sure that security concerns at all levels will only increase over the next 10-20 years and there is a scope for lot of innovative stuff.