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Theoretically, you would only make money in an efficient market by taking a position on something people didn't already expect, and being right about it. I thi
by dreish 19y ago
Theoretically, you would only make money in an efficient market by taking a position on something people didn't already expect, and being right about it. I think volatility as election results come in is about as expected as sunrise in the morning. In fact, I'd say volatility has been less than I expected, because I thought by now either Clinton or Obama would be above 80%, and instead it's still a coin flip.
But if you did want to bet on vol, you would need options, and I haven't seen any derivatives on the election futures markets. Some cursory Googling turns up nothing.