3 ms·

I will do some Nostradamus here: when Venezuela stops being leftist, oil prices will suddenly and surprisingly rise.

by m0skit0 11y ago

nitrogen 11y ago
Interesting. Are you suggesting that the current production glut is an orchestrated move to topple Venezuela's government?
- m0skit0 11y ago
  Not only because of Venezuela. As usual the simple yet effective "Qui bono" ("Who benefits") question can clear things up: The US and allies: - US and the EU are really not affected by low oil prices, you can even argue it is good for them since they're net importers. Also they have strong industrialized diversified economies, so they're hardly vulnerable on one single spot. - Saudi Arabia: can stand short-to-medium term low oil prices as already shown on the 70s crisis. About US "enemies": - Russia: badly hit, a big oil exporter, but unlikely to be weakened much since it can rely on other exports. - Venezuela: the most badly hit since more than 80% of its income is from oil, and having lost a charismatic leader replaced by a relatively unknown one, it's the right time to tighten the rope. - Iran: you don't want to give them a huge influx of petro-dollars just after lifting the sanctions. - China: since the beginning of the oil price plunging, it has shown difficulties to keep up and lately its stocks are free-falling. So clearly a net geopolitical gain for US and its allies. Also the political instability of Middle East and Libya chaotic situation brings more cheaper oil, so all this looks like was part of this same plan: get rid of annoying governments (Chavez/Maduro, Gaddafi and Al-Assad) and weaken others (Iran and its allies: Yemen, shiite Irak government) while getting cheaper oil which in turn weakens other enemies like Venezuela and China and helps ailing allies like the EU. Not a bad plan at all I think. And people that think politics and economics are not related are either naive or didn't read much History. It's called "economic policy" for a reason.
AndrewBissell 11y ago
So, your claim is that the global price of oil is being manipulated lower solely to punish Venezuela for having a Chavista-style government? Allow me to indulge in some counter-prognostication. Shale technology will cap the oil price at $50-$60 per barrel in perpetuity. Since the Chavistas rely on a price far higher than this to fund their theft and largesse, their system will be revealed to be no more economically sustainable than the dozens of other socialist revolutions that have been tried.
- m0skit0 11y ago
  I'm not defending reliance on high oil price as a good long-term strategy. In any case the money was used to improve the living standard of a lot of people, and that's something I cannot disagree with. Still I would have used that money to diversify the economy reliance on oil and make sure we had funds for the future, but that doesn't make the same political impact. And the dozens of other socialist revolutions that have been tried all failed because they have been all boycotted by capitalist nations, with war, arms race, space races, illegal embargoes, and whatnot, not because the socialist system is not sustainable. Socialism cannot compete with capitalism in term of generating huge amount of capital and growth because it is not the goal of the socialist system. Still, examples like Cuba with a 50-year embargo from the world superpower manages to have the best health of all latinamerica, and even a lower children mortality than the USA. I totally disagree that this is a failure. The USSR also went from a absolute monarchy slavery behind-time empire to a world economic and military superpower with one of the best health and education systems in ~30 years, which is an unparalleled impressive feat.
stupidcar 11y ago
Um, what? Are you saying the members of OPEC are more concerned about regime change in Venezuela than their own economic survival? You'll have to explain how that one works.
- m0skit0 11y ago
  OPEC never was a tight group. They hardly agree on anything or consult each other for production strategies. Also OPEC has not that much weight on world oil production any more. And also most OPEC countries are more interested in better relation with the USA than any OPEC strategies.

I will do some Nostradamus here: when Venezuela stops being leftist, oil prices will suddenly and surprisingly rise.

by m0skit0 11y ago

I will do some Nostradamus here: when Venezuela stops being leftist, oil prices will suddenly and surprisingly rise.

Interesting. Are you suggesting that the current production glut is an orchestrated move to topple Venezuela's government?

m0skit0 11y ago
Not only because of Venezuela. As usual the simple yet effective "Qui bono" ("Who benefits") question can clear things up: The US and allies: - US and the EU are really not affected by low oil prices, you can even argue it is good for them since they're net importers. Also they have strong industrialized diversified economies, so they're hardly vulnerable on one single spot. - Saudi Arabia: can stand short-to-medium term low oil prices as already shown on the 70s crisis. About US "enemies": - Russia: badly hit, a big oil exporter, but unlikely to be weakened much since it can rely on other exports. - Venezuela: the most badly hit since more than 80% of its income is from oil, and having lost a charismatic leader replaced by a relatively unknown one, it's the right time to tighten the rope. - Iran: you don't want to give them a huge influx of petro-dollars just after lifting the sanctions. - China: since the beginning of the oil price plunging, it has shown difficulties to keep up and lately its stocks are free-falling. So clearly a net geopolitical gain for US and its allies. Also the political instability of Middle East and Libya chaotic situation brings more cheaper oil, so all this looks like was part of this same plan: get rid of annoying governments (Chavez/Maduro, Gaddafi and Al-Assad) and weaken others (Iran and its allies: Yemen, shiite Irak government) while getting cheaper oil which in turn weakens other enemies like Venezuela and China and helps ailing allies like the EU. Not a bad plan at all I think. And people that think politics and economics are not related are either naive or didn't read much History. It's called "economic policy" for a reason.

AndrewBissell 11y ago

So, your claim is that the global price of oil is being manipulated lower solely to punish Venezuela for having a Chavista-style government? Allow me to indulge in some counter-prognostication. Shale technology will cap the oil price at $50-$60 per barrel in perpetuity. Since the Chavistas rely on a price far higher than this to fund their theft and largesse, their system will be revealed to be no more economically sustainable than the dozens of other socialist revolutions that have been tried.

m0skit0 11y ago
I'm not defending reliance on high oil price as a good long-term strategy. In any case the money was used to improve the living standard of a lot of people, and that's something I cannot disagree with. Still I would have used that money to diversify the economy reliance on oil and make sure we had funds for the future, but that doesn't make the same political impact. And the dozens of other socialist revolutions that have been tried all failed because they have been all boycotted by capitalist nations, with war, arms race, space races, illegal embargoes, and whatnot, not because the socialist system is not sustainable. Socialism cannot compete with capitalism in term of generating huge amount of capital and growth because it is not the goal of the socialist system. Still, examples like Cuba with a 50-year embargo from the world superpower manages to have the best health of all latinamerica, and even a lower children mortality than the USA. I totally disagree that this is a failure. The USSR also went from a absolute monarchy slavery behind-time empire to a world economic and military superpower with one of the best health and education systems in ~30 years, which is an unparalleled impressive feat.

stupidcar 11y ago

Um, what? Are you saying the members of OPEC are more concerned about regime change in Venezuela than their own economic survival? You'll have to explain how that one works.

m0skit0 11y ago
OPEC never was a tight group. They hardly agree on anything or consult each other for production strategies. Also OPEC has not that much weight on world oil production any more. And also most OPEC countries are more interested in better relation with the USA than any OPEC strategies.