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The Cubans did not run to Americans out of love, they saw the writing on the wall that their patron/sponsor in Venezuela was a sinking ship. This was long time
by sremani 11y ago
The Cubans did not run to Americans out of love, they saw the writing on the wall that their patron/sponsor in Venezuela was a sinking ship. This was long time coming but things will not really settle down or improve in VZ until 2019, when PDSV will be vacated out of power, but one can hope that can happen early.
The Oil bust and Venezuela creating a welfare state around $100/barrel (along with the corruption) led to this crisis. This is the cost of Leftist Populism. Some ones got to pay, and usually it is the populace. Caracas is probably most violent City in Americas, today.
People in US clamoring for leftist populism should take deep look at Venezuela.
- kaonashi 11y agoNo details as to why you're making this causal link, just post hoc propter hoc, eh?
- ArkyBeagle 11y agoFor it to actually be post hoc, I think you'd have to show ideological bias, when at least the WaPo story looks pretty straight up. Price of oil is the prime mover here, and Venezuela has big problems because of it. The Resource Curse is a real thing...
- TheBiv 11y agoOil represents 95%[1] of Venezuela's export earnings. When 95% comes from a single source and that source loses 1/3rd of it's value in a short amount of time then its straightforward to understand why Venezuela is in this situation. >>People in US clamoring for leftist populism should take deep look at Venezuela. I don't see a reason to bring your political leanings into a discussion of straightforward economic cause and effects. [1] http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171.htm http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171.htm
- Quinner 11y agoThe troubles in Venezuela started while the oil price was still high. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortages_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortages_in_Venezuela
- tmptmp 11y ago>>I don't see a reason to bring your political leanings into a discussion of straightforward economic cause and effects. That means, when they were going well, they shouldn't be boasting the "Leftist" government and so, right? But what did we see? they and their leftist supporters kept on chanting "Chavez, Chavez" and "Left, Left". Did they ever consider the so "straightforward" economics then??
- tptacek 11y agoI think it's you who are oversimplifying here. Venezuela has two big problems: the first is that collapsing oil prices knocked the support out from under their economy, and the second is that the government is trying to pretend that hasn't happened by enacting capital controls and printing huge amounts of money, based on a (let's be clear) distinctively populist/leftist economic theory that there is no such thing as inflation, but rather only predatory pricing. I think it's easier to metabolize the political dimension to the story when you think of "populist/leftism" as something outside of simple "populism" or "leftism". There are plenty of left-leaning thinkers who do not believe you can print money to solve any economic crisis.
- krisdol 11y ago"based on a (let's be clear) distinctively populist/leftist economic theory that there is no such thing as inflation, but rather only predatory pricing." Can you source any of this without linking to an "Objectivism"-associated organization?
- rm_-rf_slash 11y agoI can, because it was explicitly detailed in the article this thread is based on. Did you read it?
- krisdol 11y agoNothing about that is inherently leftist or populist or leftist/populist
- rm_-rf_slash 11y agoThe poster you replied to originally made it quite clear that it was a distinctive branch of populism/leftism, not a part of any mainstream ideology. Besides, if you twist policies and ideologies enough, you can get anything to justify anything. You can find justifications for guaranteed income from socialist and libertarian perspectives, for example.
- fiatjaf 11y ago"I don't see a reason to bring your political leanings into a discussion of straightforward economic cause and effects." Really? Can't you really step out a little and try to think why oil represents 95% of Venezuela's export earnings? Are you really sure that pointing the cause of Venezuela's collapse on leftist policies is just a fruit of "policial leanings"? Is there anything you would you consider as reasonable argument against "leftist populism"?
- dragonwriter 11y ago> Can't you really step out a little and try to think why oil represents 95% of Venezuela's export earnings? Yes, and it has nothing to do with leftist populism (just as the dominance of oil among Saudi Arabia's exports has nothing to do with leftist populism, and the dominance of copper among Chile's exports -- which is true now, and was under both the Allende and Pinochet regimes in the past -- has nothing to do with leftist populism.) There have been whole shelves of books written on how the dominant international trade regime locks countries whose existing comparative advantage is in extractive industries to those sources of income in international trade and makes it difficult for most of them to successfully diversify; this problem is independent of whether the local government is left- or right-leaning, and whether it is populist or not. > Are you really sure that pointing the cause of Venezuela's collapse on leftist policies is just a fruit of "policial leanings"? Pointing with significant evidence to specific effects of specific policies might not be, blaming it generically on leftism or leftist populism is, OTOH, a different story.
- nitrogen 11y agoWhat's going to run this whole conversation off the rails is that "leftist", "populist", "socialist", etc. are emotionally loaded strawmen. Politics and economics have many more interesting dimensions to discuss than just "left vs. right". So asking for an argument against "leftist populism" is a waste of everyone's time because nobody will agree on what those words mean, they'll all talk past each other, and it's missing 99% of the interesting things to discuss about Venezuela as compared to other countries.
- crdoconnor 11y agoSaudi Arabia, despite being not in any way leftist, is in pretty much the same boat. They've just got more money in the bank at the moment. Similarly, Ecuador is pretty leftist. It just has a substantially better run economy.
- jeffdavis 11y agoFrom the article it sounded like they were already well on their way to disaster even with high oil prices. For instance, not even maintaining their oil infrastructure, and installing incompetent loyalists to run it.
- xlm1717 11y ago>>I don't see a reason to bring your political leanings into a discussion of straightforward economic cause and effects. Because political leanings are leading to economic policy decisions.
- pmelendez 11y ago> When 95% comes from a single source and that source loses 1/3rd of it's value in a short amount of time then its straightforward to understand why Venezuela is in this situation. There is more than that. In 90's when the Venezuelan crude was as low as $11 per barrel, the business was still profitable. Now with a price $20 per barrel it is dangerously close to the price of production (when you include refinement which is not an option for Venezuelan oil), so it is not just because the market bump, but also for being inefficient in the business. >I don't see a reason to bring your political leanings into a discussion of straightforward economic cause and effects. Because it is relevant, it is not only because economic causes but also because the government policies made this situation particularly terrible. Should Venezuela had better economical policies this would has been just a mere crisis and not a bankrupt scenario.
- protomyth 11y agoIts a bit worse than that as the oil produced in Venezuela (Heavy crude oil) needs more processing than say oil out of North Dakota or Texas (West Texas Intermediate). They actually had to import oil to blend to bring up the quality. Since they haven't invested in their industry, they really don't have ability to produce oil as cheaply as other countries and need a much higher price.
- legulere 11y agoExactly, other oil-export-based economies are also struggling. For instance Saudi-Arabia, which is a strong ally of the USA is also currently burning through their foreign reserves: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/01948d2c-ef49-11e4-a6d2-00144feab7de.html http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/01948d2c-ef49-11e4-a6d2-00144...
- forgetsusername 11y agoIn recent history, Venezuela defaulted in 1982, 1990, had a banking collapse in 1994, 100% inflation in 1996, defaulted again in 1998 and 2004...all bad luck of course.
- krisdol 11y agoWhat ridiculous propaganda. This is the cost of depending an entire country's budget not only on one single commodity export, but on highly optimistic predictions of that commodity's future price. Commodities go through major boom and bust cycles and all countries depending on oil are feeling the bust right now, regardless of political leanings.
- sremani 11y agoPeople in Venezuela were standing in lines infront of empty stores as early as 2013 (if not earlier) when Oil was well well above $70.
- fiatjaf 11y agoIn 2011 there were already many shortages everywhere. Including the famous toilet paper.
- specialist 11y agoPretty sure Venezuela's problems (political, economic, social) pre-date 2013.
- tptacek 11y agoWhat are some other companies that have used massive currency dilution and capital controls to avoid the impact of oil prices?
- unprepare 11y agoWho in the US political sphere is promoting those policies?
- DanielBMarkham 11y agoI remember reading an article several years back, before it was obvious the hell that was coming to Venezuela. The reporter was quite impressed with Chavez's ability to speak and act for the people. He noted that one day Chavez was walking in the city and saw a nice building. He said something to the effect of "The people need this building much more than the rich companies using it" and boom, those folks lost their building. Yet it was somehow a mystery to both the reporter and many folks in the states that somehow this was a problem. There were tons of supporters of what was going on in Venezuela, all over the world, thankful that somebody was finally truly looking out for the common man. Read a book once which compared many different cultures over the centuries. Lately it's fairly common to wave your hands around and say something like "There are no better or worse cultures. Each has its own values" but this author did not do that. He made the case, and I agreed, that whatever your values, it's better living to 75 than it is dying of disease at age 8. What was one of the primary things he felt made a difference in cultures? Respect of private property.
- mercurial 11y agoI'm not sure where you're going with that, but after reading a book on the Spanish Civil War, when "respecting private property" means "a few people having a lot of it and most folks having next to nothing" and the former fighting to maintain this advantageous statu quo, it's pretty clear to me that the long-term stability of the country is in large part predicated on some measure of equality and social justice before "the respect for private property".
- AnimalMuppet 11y agoDo you not see respect for private property as part of social justice? If not, consider: You're poor. You finally get enough money to save a bit. Is it not part of social justice that nobody can take it from you?
- mercurial 11y agoNot in countries where inequality is so bad that you'd need thorough land redistribution first.
- badsock 11y agoPeople on the left want to emulate places like Norway, not places like Venezuela.
- fiatjaf 11y agoVenezuela tried to emulate that also.
- kentrado 11y agoNo. They tried to emulate Cuba and SU Russia.
- fiatjaf 11y agoNot really. They didn't propose the end of private property and total economic planning by the government, did they? They just wanted to "do more for the poor", better education, better hospitals, correct?
- AnimalMuppet 11y agoCorrect, I think... right up until rich people's private property got in the way of doing more for the poor.
- NetStrikeForce 11y agoYou don't have a single leftist politic in the US. Come on, you've got one of the most fucked up healthcare systems in the developed world, precisely because of your right-wing policies to privatize everything - and not a single politician is planning to fix that.
- davidw 11y ago> not a single politician is planning to fix that. You must not pay attention to the news much. Anyway, this whole discussion is politics, so... I have flagged the article.
- tedks 11y agoPolitics is explicitly allowed on HN. If you want a neoliberal hugbox go to less wrong.
- davidw 11y ago> Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html It's somewhat loosely enforced, but the guideline is there.
- FeepingCreature 11y agoActually LW is by majority social democrats (according to the 2014 survey). It just has some very vocal neoliberals.
- tedks 11y agoNo, less wrong is just so neoliberal, socially conservative, and outright fascist in the extreme that the ones that are "only" neocons think they're social democrats, in part because they aren't as extreme as the extremists and in part because they think they're all socially liberal because their Glorious Leader is polygamous.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- chishaku 11y ago> People in US clamoring for leftist populism should take deep look at Venezuela. Typical political season scaremongering... Single-payer healthcare and free college education will bring the US to the brink of collapse!
- snake_plissken 11y agoIs your last sentence for real? The government in Venezuela is better described as fascist or at the very least, statist. And anyway even it were a true stanchion of leftist populism, it does not mean that because one leftist populist country built on oil export revenues went bankrupt, that others will as well.
- mikeash 11y agoHow does Venezuela offer any lessons for American leftists? I'm not super familiar with the situation in Venezuela, but it seems like they have almost no relation. The Venezuelan government looks like the old Soviet version of leftism, where dissent is suppressed, everything in sight is nationalized, money is tightly restricted, foreign companies are kicked out, etc. American leftism is basically, let's raise taxes a bit and subsidize health care more. The two don't look even vaguely alike.
- pmelendez 11y ago> American leftism is basically, let's raise taxes a bit and subsidize health care more. The two don't look even vaguely alike. This sounds more like American liberalism rather than leftism
- mikeash 11y agoVery well, what is "leftism" and how many Americans actually support whatever it is?
- pmelendez 11y agoUsually are ideas more tied to the Marxism-Leninism way of thinking. I don't think there are many public figures supporting it, but something is going on in the population when you see a guy like Donald Trump in front of polls for that long. When you compare speeches, you can observe that D. Trump is pretty much Chavez from the other side of the street. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Left https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Left
- mikeash 11y agoThey may be similar in their approaches to international commerce, but Trump and Chavez seem like opposites in terms of their approach to the domestic economy.
- 11y ago
- unprepare 11y agoI havent heard anyone in the US clamoring for the government to take control of the means of production as in Venezuela. I havent heard anyone in the US clamoring to increase expropriation of real estate and property (in fact, i commonly see articles negative about asset forfeiture laws and eminent domain) I havent heard anyone in the US clamoring for a chairman of the Fed who 'doesn't believe in such a thing as inflation' I havent heard anyone in the US clamoring for policies dependent on static revenues from any specific exports. Could you be more specific in the leftist populism policies that you think a) created this crisis in Venezuela and b) represents an equal threat to the United States?
- exelius 11y ago> People in US clamoring for leftist populism should take deep look at Venezuela. All things in balance. Capitalism is not inherently good, nor is socialism inherently bad. You've got to balance the two: there are certain markets (namely anything around health care or essential needs) where profit creates a perverse incentive. The US is also starting from a much better place than Venezuela did: our economy is far more diverse, so market changes don't affect us as strongly. The US could do with being a bit more socialist in some ways, but we can also afford it.