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Is fusion something we could expect to become a real source of energy in say the next 15-20 years? I assume just building a fusion reactor will take more than a

Is fusion something we could expect to become a real source of energy in say the next 15-20 years? I assume just building a fusion reactor will take more than a decade.

vorotato 11y ago
from the article “It’s a very clean source of power, the cleanest you could possibly wish for. We’re not doing this for us but for our children and grandchildren.”
norea-armozel 11y ago
Considering who's putting money into ignition research and alternative modes of fusion (General Fusion vs Tri-Alpha Energy for example) I'd say we should have at least one successful ignition experiment on or before 2020. I would honestly be shocked if nothing of note in that regard didn't happen by 2030 though.
creshal 11y ago
Wendelstein and ITER are supposed to verify whether it's possible to generate net power… with improved designs. So, assuming Wendelstein works as hoped, we will, in a few years, know whether we can start planning an actual fusion power plant (as opposed to a net-negative research reactor). Then we will need to actual design and build one. If we're lucky, we'll see the first pilot plants in 15-20 years. So, we're on the same level of "fusion practicability" as in 1960.
adrianN 11y ago
Building a nuclear power plant, something we already know how to do inside and out, takes 5-7 years. Barring miraculous breakthroughs in non-magnetic confinement technology, the chances for fusion power on the grid are pretty close to zero.
rubidium 11y ago
The running joke is that it's always been 15-20 years away. Since 1960.
- Retric 11y ago
  Nah, used to be 50-60 years ago, 20 years after that it was 40-50, then 20 years after that 30-40... Honestly, we could have working devices today. Funding has just been less than expected. Don't forget there was a ~30 year gap between JET and ITER. PS: There was also initial talks for ITER to be a working power plant, but it was significantly cheaper to downscale the device.
  - lorenzhs 11y ago
    From what I understand it was the downscaling that politicians demanded to reduce costs that caused most of the cost increase. Lots of design parameters had to be changed as a result of it, new technologies developed to get things to work on the smaller scale, etc. There was also a lot of mismanagement in the beginning, with the Japanese management being completely new to the area (the director general was Japan's former ambassador to Croatia). Later, management was restructured several times and now people with experience in plasma physics are in charge. Source: A retired nuclear fusion physicist who was indirectly involved in ITER told me this.
- b34r 11y ago
  Time to call Elon Musk
lmm 11y ago
We're "two generations" away from commercial power generation: assuming (big assumption) all goes to plan with ITER, the next tokamak would be a full-scale power-generating fusion plant that commercial designs could be based on. Stellerators are one generation behind that: if Wendelstein 7-X works as intended then the next step would be an ITER-equivalent.

Is fusion something we could expect to become a real source of energy in say the next 15-20 years? I assume just building a fusion reactor will take more than a decade.

vorotato 11y ago

from the article “It’s a very clean source of power, the cleanest you could possibly wish for. We’re not doing this for us but for our children and grandchildren.”

norea-armozel 11y ago

Considering who's putting money into ignition research and alternative modes of fusion (General Fusion vs Tri-Alpha Energy for example) I'd say we should have at least one successful ignition experiment on or before 2020. I would honestly be shocked if nothing of note in that regard didn't happen by 2030 though.

creshal 11y ago

Wendelstein and ITER are supposed to verify whether it's possible to generate net power… with improved designs. So, assuming Wendelstein works as hoped, we will, in a few years, know whether we can start planning an actual fusion power plant (as opposed to a net-negative research reactor). Then we will need to actual design and build one. If we're lucky, we'll see the first pilot plants in 15-20 years. So, we're on the same level of "fusion practicability" as in 1960.

adrianN 11y ago

Building a nuclear power plant, something we already know how to do inside and out, takes 5-7 years. Barring miraculous breakthroughs in non-magnetic confinement technology, the chances for fusion power on the grid are pretty close to zero.

rubidium 11y ago

The running joke is that it's always been 15-20 years away. Since 1960.

Retric 11y ago
Nah, used to be 50-60 years ago, 20 years after that it was 40-50, then 20 years after that 30-40... Honestly, we could have working devices today. Funding has just been less than expected. Don't forget there was a ~30 year gap between JET and ITER. PS: There was also initial talks for ITER to be a working power plant, but it was significantly cheaper to downscale the device.
- lorenzhs 11y ago
  From what I understand it was the downscaling that politicians demanded to reduce costs that caused most of the cost increase. Lots of design parameters had to be changed as a result of it, new technologies developed to get things to work on the smaller scale, etc. There was also a lot of mismanagement in the beginning, with the Japanese management being completely new to the area (the director general was Japan's former ambassador to Croatia). Later, management was restructured several times and now people with experience in plasma physics are in charge. Source: A retired nuclear fusion physicist who was indirectly involved in ITER told me this.
b34r 11y ago
Time to call Elon Musk

lmm 11y ago

We're "two generations" away from commercial power generation: assuming (big assumption) all goes to plan with ITER, the next tokamak would be a full-scale power-generating fusion plant that commercial designs could be based on. Stellerators are one generation behind that: if Wendelstein 7-X works as intended then the next step would be an ITER-equivalent.