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Right. And the choice could now be upgrading to a smartwatch from Casio as opposed to a higher end Swatch. Check out Swatch's share price since 2013. No clue w

by Riod 11y ago

Right. And the choice could now be upgrading to a smartwatch from Casio as opposed to a higher end Swatch. Check out Swatch's share price since 2013. No clue why Europe is the only relevant market you're referencing here. Either way no clue what the market size for town clocks was.

vinceguidry 11y ago
People upgrading from Casio to Apple are of no concern to higher-end makers like Patek Philippe. Swatch is not a premium watch maker. What Patek and the like might be worried about is people moving from Patek to Apple. But when you start to think more carefully about that scenario, it's rather ridiculous. People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch. The idea that someone buying these watches would sell them all and buy an Apple Watch, never to own another high-end watch again, is simply absurd.
- SwellJoe 11y ago
  "People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch." You're talking about collectors. They already do not represent a significant portion of the current market for high end watches. Sure, wealthy people who like watches probably have one or two "nice" watches. But, people who collect things will never be the majority of a mass market consumer good. There are car collectors with classic cars, that won't save internal combustion engines. There are people who collect old computers, too, but no one is seriously suggesting the Commodore 64 will ever be a mass market product again. People collect dolls, but Barbie doesn't make their millions from sales to collectors; they make their millions from the mass market. So, you're arguing there will always be classic watch collectors. No problem. I'm sure there will be. Hell, there are still people that knit their own sweaters. Watch collectors will not be common, and they will not represent a multi-billion dollar market.
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    > You're talking about collectors. No, I'm not. I'm talking about people that buy high-end watches. They're like ties, it doesn't really make sense to own just one. You need one for every occasion, to match all the types of outfits you wear. It makes sense for you to own just one high-end watch. But the kind of person that can pay $30K for a watch is not you. They are the people that keep Patek Phillipe in business. They made €765.6 million in 2013. The Swiss watch industry as a whole is around $10 billion.
    - Riod 11y ago
      $800MM is a small business and $10BN is a small industry fyi.
      - vinceguidry 11y ago
        I never said it wasn't. The theme is small, entrenched industries that seem way bigger than they are. Hollywood seems so much bigger than it is because geopolitically, US culture exports are a big contributor to global goodwill. The watch industry is sheltered by old, old money, patronized by the kind of people who could comfortably buy up the entire industry if they saw the need. Market logic is a useful thing to grasp, but there are bigger things in the world than markets, and it's really useful to be able to understand how they work. What looks small often isn't. Bigger, better, faster, stronger are not the only rules the world lives by. There exist points at which normal logic upends and irrationality rules.
    - SwellJoe 11y ago
      I wonder how we ended up talking so much about luxury watches in this conversation about Hollywood and the tech industry. I still don't think there's a useful comparison to be made, even if we assume that luxury watches are immune to the same sorts of factors that made fancy hats and canes disappear. It's an impossibly large leap for me to treat Hollywood movies and entertainment as a "luxury good"; there's simply none of the same motivations behind it. It really isn't a status symbol to own a copy of the Criterion Collection on Blu Ray.
- Riod 11y ago
  Well aware that swatch is not premium. They are however higher end when compared to Casio. Market have different segments. Timex and Casio make up 30% of the market. ~50% of buyers care about value and another 30% care about watches as a symbol. Swatch falls in that 50%. That's a big market segment. That's where smartwatches compete.

by Riod 11y ago

vinceguidry 11y ago

People upgrading from Casio to Apple are of no concern to higher-end makers like Patek Philippe. Swatch is not a premium watch maker. What Patek and the like might be worried about is people moving from Patek to Apple. But when you start to think more carefully about that scenario, it's rather ridiculous. People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch. The idea that someone buying these watches would sell them all and buy an Apple Watch, never to own another high-end watch again, is simply absurd.

SwellJoe 11y ago
"People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch." You're talking about collectors. They already do not represent a significant portion of the current market for high end watches. Sure, wealthy people who like watches probably have one or two "nice" watches. But, people who collect things will never be the majority of a mass market consumer good. There are car collectors with classic cars, that won't save internal combustion engines. There are people who collect old computers, too, but no one is seriously suggesting the Commodore 64 will ever be a mass market product again. People collect dolls, but Barbie doesn't make their millions from sales to collectors; they make their millions from the mass market. So, you're arguing there will always be classic watch collectors. No problem. I'm sure there will be. Hell, there are still people that knit their own sweaters. Watch collectors will not be common, and they will not represent a multi-billion dollar market.
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  > You're talking about collectors. No, I'm not. I'm talking about people that buy high-end watches. They're like ties, it doesn't really make sense to own just one. You need one for every occasion, to match all the types of outfits you wear. It makes sense for you to own just one high-end watch. But the kind of person that can pay $30K for a watch is not you. They are the people that keep Patek Phillipe in business. They made €765.6 million in 2013. The Swiss watch industry as a whole is around $10 billion.
  - Riod 11y ago
    $800MM is a small business and $10BN is a small industry fyi.
    - vinceguidry 11y ago
      I never said it wasn't. The theme is small, entrenched industries that seem way bigger than they are. Hollywood seems so much bigger than it is because geopolitically, US culture exports are a big contributor to global goodwill. The watch industry is sheltered by old, old money, patronized by the kind of people who could comfortably buy up the entire industry if they saw the need. Market logic is a useful thing to grasp, but there are bigger things in the world than markets, and it's really useful to be able to understand how they work. What looks small often isn't. Bigger, better, faster, stronger are not the only rules the world lives by. There exist points at which normal logic upends and irrationality rules.
  - SwellJoe 11y ago
    I wonder how we ended up talking so much about luxury watches in this conversation about Hollywood and the tech industry. I still don't think there's a useful comparison to be made, even if we assume that luxury watches are immune to the same sorts of factors that made fancy hats and canes disappear. It's an impossibly large leap for me to treat Hollywood movies and entertainment as a "luxury good"; there's simply none of the same motivations behind it. It really isn't a status symbol to own a copy of the Criterion Collection on Blu Ray.
Riod 11y ago
Well aware that swatch is not premium. They are however higher end when compared to Casio. Market have different segments. Timex and Casio make up 30% of the market. ~50% of buyers care about value and another 30% care about watches as a symbol. Swatch falls in that 50%. That's a big market segment. That's where smartwatches compete.