5 ms·

On watches, I'd say when you have low cost smartwatches (like what happened with phones), then things might change. Watches might become relegated to being stat

by Riod 11y ago

On watches, I'd say when you have low cost smartwatches (like what happened with phones), then things might change. Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious.

saryant 11y ago
Well, yeah. That was the point. Very expensive fashion statements with incredibly high profit margins.
- Riod 11y ago
  Not all watchmakers make expensive fashion statements. Market is segmented. Guys beyond Casio (Swatch et al) will/have been affected
vinceguidry 11y ago
> Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious. When have they ever not been? The watch, even back in it's heyday as something you carried around in your pocket, has always been a status-first, function-second fashion accessory. It has always been much, much cheaper to use the established methods of telling time, most villages first infrastructure investment was a town clock, once those became cost-effective to build. It has only been very recently where it became fashionable for everyone to wear one, and that's only because of cheap electronic watches. Cheap electronic watches had the inevitable effect of whetting appetite for luxury options. Casio was the best thing that ever happened to luxury watch makers.
- Riod 11y ago
  Right. And the choice could now be upgrading to a smartwatch from Casio as opposed to a higher end Swatch. Check out Swatch's share price since 2013. No clue why Europe is the only relevant market you're referencing here. Either way no clue what the market size for town clocks was.
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    People upgrading from Casio to Apple are of no concern to higher-end makers like Patek Philippe. Swatch is not a premium watch maker. What Patek and the like might be worried about is people moving from Patek to Apple. But when you start to think more carefully about that scenario, it's rather ridiculous. People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch. The idea that someone buying these watches would sell them all and buy an Apple Watch, never to own another high-end watch again, is simply absurd.
    - SwellJoe 11y ago
      "People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch." You're talking about collectors. They already do not represent a significant portion of the current market for high end watches. Sure, wealthy people who like watches probably have one or two "nice" watches. But, people who collect things will never be the majority of a mass market consumer good. There are car collectors with classic cars, that won't save internal combustion engines. There are people who collect old computers, too, but no one is seriously suggesting the Commodore 64 will ever be a mass market product again. People collect dolls, but Barbie doesn't make their millions from sales to collectors; they make their millions from the mass market. So, you're arguing there will always be classic watch collectors. No problem. I'm sure there will be. Hell, there are still people that knit their own sweaters. Watch collectors will not be common, and they will not represent a multi-billion dollar market.
      - vinceguidry 11y ago
        > You're talking about collectors. No, I'm not. I'm talking about people that buy high-end watches. They're like ties, it doesn't really make sense to own just one. You need one for every occasion, to match all the types of outfits you wear. It makes sense for you to own just one high-end watch. But the kind of person that can pay $30K for a watch is not you. They are the people that keep Patek Phillipe in business. They made €765.6 million in 2013. The Swiss watch industry as a whole is around $10 billion.
somberi 11y ago
"... Last year, when consultants from Deloitte surveyed Swiss watch executives, eighty per cent of them indicated that demand was down “due to anti-corruption legislation” in China." source - http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-kleptocrat-in-apartment-b http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-kleptocrat-i...

by Riod 11y ago

On watches, I'd say when you have low cost smartwatches (like what happened with phones), then things might change. Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious.

saryant 11y ago

Well, yeah. That was the point. Very expensive fashion statements with incredibly high profit margins.

Riod 11y ago
Not all watchmakers make expensive fashion statements. Market is segmented. Guys beyond Casio (Swatch et al) will/have been affected

vinceguidry 11y ago

> Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious. When have they ever not been? The watch, even back in it's heyday as something you carried around in your pocket, has always been a status-first, function-second fashion accessory. It has always been much, much cheaper to use the established methods of telling time, most villages first infrastructure investment was a town clock, once those became cost-effective to build. It has only been very recently where it became fashionable for everyone to wear one, and that's only because of cheap electronic watches. Cheap electronic watches had the inevitable effect of whetting appetite for luxury options. Casio was the best thing that ever happened to luxury watch makers.

Riod 11y ago
Right. And the choice could now be upgrading to a smartwatch from Casio as opposed to a higher end Swatch. Check out Swatch's share price since 2013. No clue why Europe is the only relevant market you're referencing here. Either way no clue what the market size for town clocks was.
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  People upgrading from Casio to Apple are of no concern to higher-end makers like Patek Philippe. Swatch is not a premium watch maker. What Patek and the like might be worried about is people moving from Patek to Apple. But when you start to think more carefully about that scenario, it's rather ridiculous. People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch. The idea that someone buying these watches would sell them all and buy an Apple Watch, never to own another high-end watch again, is simply absurd.
  - SwellJoe 11y ago
    "People into watches don't just buy one. You don't "switch" brands, you just select a different one for your next purchase. It could be another Patek, perhaps an Audemars Piguet, or even an Apple Watch." You're talking about collectors. They already do not represent a significant portion of the current market for high end watches. Sure, wealthy people who like watches probably have one or two "nice" watches. But, people who collect things will never be the majority of a mass market consumer good. There are car collectors with classic cars, that won't save internal combustion engines. There are people who collect old computers, too, but no one is seriously suggesting the Commodore 64 will ever be a mass market product again. People collect dolls, but Barbie doesn't make their millions from sales to collectors; they make their millions from the mass market. So, you're arguing there will always be classic watch collectors. No problem. I'm sure there will be. Hell, there are still people that knit their own sweaters. Watch collectors will not be common, and they will not represent a multi-billion dollar market.
    - vinceguidry 11y ago
      > You're talking about collectors. No, I'm not. I'm talking about people that buy high-end watches. They're like ties, it doesn't really make sense to own just one. You need one for every occasion, to match all the types of outfits you wear. It makes sense for you to own just one high-end watch. But the kind of person that can pay $30K for a watch is not you. They are the people that keep Patek Phillipe in business. They made €765.6 million in 2013. The Swiss watch industry as a whole is around $10 billion.

somberi 11y ago

"... Last year, when consultants from Deloitte surveyed Swiss watch executives, eighty per cent of them indicated that demand was down “due to anti-corruption legislation” in China." source - http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-kleptocrat-in-apartment-b http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-kleptocrat-i...