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I don't think luxury goods are at all a useful comparison to the various entertainment industries. I would argue entertainment is far closer to what Google/Amaz

I don't think luxury goods are at all a useful comparison to the various entertainment industries. I would argue entertainment is far closer to what Google/Amazon/Netflix/Apple are doing than it is to what jewelry makers are doing. And, I think it's too early to tell what'll happen to luxury watch makers. I think that cockiness is not well-founded. I'd be willing to bet that in a few more years, those traditional watches will be as common as cuff links. They'll still exist, but they won't be considered a standard part of people's every day wear, even people who buy and wear luxury goods. I do agree with you, however, that Hollywood and the entertainment industry wield way more political power than the size of their industry would indicate. They're good at lobbying, and they have a few friends in very high places (like Disney) to fight their battles for them, such as copyright terms, for example.

vinceguidry 11y ago
> I'd be willing to bet that in a few more years, those traditional watches will be as common as cuff links. I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Traditional watches have seen way more potential challengers than just the Apple Watch, and managed to survive nonetheless. You can think "yeah, but this time it's different," but try to think of it from the point of view of somebody whose been making and selling watches to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling watches for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy watches.
- SwellJoe 11y ago
  But, try to think of it from the point of view of somebody who's been making and selling wagon wheels to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling wagon wheels for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy wagon wheels. Sometimes, things change.
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    You're completely not getting why technology is different from luxury. Wagon wheels are not and never were a luxury product. People bought them for completely different reasons.
    - SwellJoe 11y ago
      Beaver skin hats, wool or fur topcoats, previously mentioned cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs... Traditional watches have had their run. They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation.
      - nemothekid 11y ago
        >cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs >They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation. The items you mentioned fell out of fashion, so I believe his point still stands. It seems to me, watch makers aren't concerned about smart watches from a utilitarian point of view, but from a fashion point of view (After all most people stopped wearing watches once you could get the time on your phone). Likewise, if it was just the case that watches simply had to have more functions to upend the market, smartphones would have eradicated traditional watches by now. Whether or not they are underestimating Apple's ability to create a fashionable digital time piece is one thing, but it looks like watch makers understand that their customers aren't buying their products in order to measure their heart rate (or even check the time).
      - terryf 11y ago
        You don't wear a breitling to tell time. You wear it to tell everyone else that you have money, power and self-confidence. It's essentially jewellery for men. That hasn't gone out of fashion for thousands of years. Pretty sure it never will, either.
        naveen99 11y ago
        I can see money. But how does it give you power or confidence independent of money ?
- nostrademons 11y ago
  The biggest risk to traditional watchmakers isn't the Apple Watch per se, it's the wealth created by the whole tech ecosystem. Luxury good makers have spent decades getting to know their customers, who are largely wealthy, cultured individuals. It is unlikely those individuals will suddenly switch their preferences to the Apple Watch. It is more likely that those individuals will no longer be wealthy. Over the last 15 years, we've seen a level of wealth instability that's been unprecedented since the Gilded Age, with whole industries disappearing and new fortunes being made. I don't see the nouveau rich being a big fan of traditional Swiss watches. Most of the millionaires/billionaires I know tend to own Pebbles, actually.
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    The old rich has way more to fear from political upheaval in their home countries than from American tech wealth. There's way way way more old money than there is new. When you look at the grand scheme of things. American tech is tiny. I would not be surprised at all to hear of rich people who've never even heard of Apple.

vinceguidry 11y ago

> I'd be willing to bet that in a few more years, those traditional watches will be as common as cuff links. I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Traditional watches have seen way more potential challengers than just the Apple Watch, and managed to survive nonetheless. You can think "yeah, but this time it's different," but try to think of it from the point of view of somebody whose been making and selling watches to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling watches for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy watches.

SwellJoe 11y ago
But, try to think of it from the point of view of somebody who's been making and selling wagon wheels to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling wagon wheels for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy wagon wheels. Sometimes, things change.
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  You're completely not getting why technology is different from luxury. Wagon wheels are not and never were a luxury product. People bought them for completely different reasons.
  - SwellJoe 11y ago
    Beaver skin hats, wool or fur topcoats, previously mentioned cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs... Traditional watches have had their run. They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation.
    - nemothekid 11y ago
      >cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs >They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation. The items you mentioned fell out of fashion, so I believe his point still stands. It seems to me, watch makers aren't concerned about smart watches from a utilitarian point of view, but from a fashion point of view (After all most people stopped wearing watches once you could get the time on your phone). Likewise, if it was just the case that watches simply had to have more functions to upend the market, smartphones would have eradicated traditional watches by now. Whether or not they are underestimating Apple's ability to create a fashionable digital time piece is one thing, but it looks like watch makers understand that their customers aren't buying their products in order to measure their heart rate (or even check the time).
    - terryf 11y ago
      You don't wear a breitling to tell time. You wear it to tell everyone else that you have money, power and self-confidence. It's essentially jewellery for men. That hasn't gone out of fashion for thousands of years. Pretty sure it never will, either.
      - naveen99 11y ago
        I can see money. But how does it give you power or confidence independent of money ?
nostrademons 11y ago
The biggest risk to traditional watchmakers isn't the Apple Watch per se, it's the wealth created by the whole tech ecosystem. Luxury good makers have spent decades getting to know their customers, who are largely wealthy, cultured individuals. It is unlikely those individuals will suddenly switch their preferences to the Apple Watch. It is more likely that those individuals will no longer be wealthy. Over the last 15 years, we've seen a level of wealth instability that's been unprecedented since the Gilded Age, with whole industries disappearing and new fortunes being made. I don't see the nouveau rich being a big fan of traditional Swiss watches. Most of the millionaires/billionaires I know tend to own Pebbles, actually.
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  The old rich has way more to fear from political upheaval in their home countries than from American tech wealth. There's way way way more old money than there is new. When you look at the grand scheme of things. American tech is tiny. I would not be surprised at all to hear of rich people who've never even heard of Apple.