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I enjoy watching established players in industries that have exhibited decades of abusive behavior toward independent artists and consumers get stomped on by th

I enjoy watching established players in industries that have exhibited decades of abusive behavior toward independent artists and consumers get stomped on by the new Internet economy. It's not that I necessarily think that in the end Amazon and Netflix will treat creators or consumers any better than Hollywood, though they might, it's hard to know yet. But, I think seeing the movie industry and the music industry (in particular, the music industry) kicked in the damned teeth until they cry for mercy is downright hilarious. Hollywood thinks they have money and power...until an Apple, or Google, or Amazon comes along and shows them what real economic clout looks like. Again, it may not end up better for creative folks or consumers, but it sure is funny while it's shaking out.

vinceguidry 11y ago
> Hollywood thinks they have money and power...until an Apple, or Google, or Amazon comes along and shows them what real economic clout looks like. Something I read once stuck with me. I don't remember the exact wording, but basically the movie industry's entire market, soup to nuts, is an order of magnitude less than just one of Disney's physical goods departments. An entire industry's market doesn't even hold a candle to one company's department. Hollywood is stranger than you could ever know. It makes a pitiful amount of money in relation to global capitalism, always has, always will. But it wields outsized influence on American policymaking regardless. Another quote comes to mind. When Apple released the Watch, someone asked one of the top watch companies if they were worried about Apple butting into their market. He just smiled and said something to the effect of, "Call me when they can figure out how to get men to wear diamonds on anything other than a watch." Established industries have spent long, long periods of time getting to know their customer. More often than not, they can take any upstart's best efforts and treat it as outsourced R&D. Netflix and Apple can succeed to their hearts content and still not have a prayer of unseating Hollywood.
- SwellJoe 11y ago
  I don't think luxury goods are at all a useful comparison to the various entertainment industries. I would argue entertainment is far closer to what Google/Amazon/Netflix/Apple are doing than it is to what jewelry makers are doing. And, I think it's too early to tell what'll happen to luxury watch makers. I think that cockiness is not well-founded. I'd be willing to bet that in a few more years, those traditional watches will be as common as cuff links. They'll still exist, but they won't be considered a standard part of people's every day wear, even people who buy and wear luxury goods. I do agree with you, however, that Hollywood and the entertainment industry wield way more political power than the size of their industry would indicate. They're good at lobbying, and they have a few friends in very high places (like Disney) to fight their battles for them, such as copyright terms, for example.
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    > I'd be willing to bet that in a few more years, those traditional watches will be as common as cuff links. I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Traditional watches have seen way more potential challengers than just the Apple Watch, and managed to survive nonetheless. You can think "yeah, but this time it's different," but try to think of it from the point of view of somebody whose been making and selling watches to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling watches for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy watches.
    - SwellJoe 11y ago
      But, try to think of it from the point of view of somebody who's been making and selling wagon wheels to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling wagon wheels for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy wagon wheels. Sometimes, things change.
      - vinceguidry 11y ago
        You're completely not getting why technology is different from luxury. Wagon wheels are not and never were a luxury product. People bought them for completely different reasons.
        SwellJoe 11y ago
        Beaver skin hats, wool or fur topcoats, previously mentioned cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs... Traditional watches have had their run. They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation.
        nemothekid 11y ago
        >cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs >They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation. The items you mentioned fell out of fashion, so I believe his point still stands. It seems to me, watch makers aren't concerned about smart watches from a utilitarian point of view, but from a fashion point of view (After all most people stopped wearing watches once you could get the time on your phone). Likewise, if it was just the case that watches simply had to have more functions to upend the market, smartphones would have eradicated traditional watches by now. Whether or not they are underestimating Apple's ability to create a fashionable digital time piece is one thing, but it looks like watch makers understand that their customers aren't buying their products in order to measure their heart rate (or even check the time).
- oldmanjay 11y ago
  Total domestic Hollywood box office for 2015 was ~10 billion[0]. Total 2015 revenue for Disney was ~52 billion[1]. Whatever you read, it is no longer correct. [0] http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2015 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2015 [1] http://www.statista.com/statistics/224397/quarterly-revenue-of-the-walt-disney-company/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/224397/quarterly-revenue-...
  - kbenson 11y ago
    I'm not sure why you think a department in a company with 52 billion in revenue can't individually have more revenue than an industry with 10 billion in revenue. Specifically, numbers posted seem to indicate there are some divisions with more than 10 billion in revenue[1]. 1: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-04/disney-profit-beats-estimates-as-film-studio-parks-post-gains http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-04/disney-pro...
    - oldmanjay 11y ago
      52 billion can't contain an order of magnitude more than 10 billion no matter how you do your accounting.
      - vinceguidry 11y ago
        As I said, it's been awhile since I read that, I was sure I was misstating it somehow.
      - jaibot 11y ago
        Pedantic: It can if some of the departments are turning in massive losses.
        oldmanjay 11y ago
        That's not the case at Disney. I'm not making an abstract point here.
- Riod 11y ago
  On watches, I'd say when you have low cost smartwatches (like what happened with phones), then things might change. Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious.
  - saryant 11y ago
    Well, yeah. That was the point. Very expensive fashion statements with incredibly high profit margins.
    - Riod 11y ago
      Not all watchmakers make expensive fashion statements. Market is segmented. Guys beyond Casio (Swatch et al) will/have been affected
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    > Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious. When have they ever not been? The watch, even back in it's heyday as something you carried around in your pocket, has always been a status-first, function-second fashion accessory. It has always been much, much cheaper to use the established methods of telling time, most villages first infrastructure investment was a town clock, once those became cost-effective to build. It has only been very recently where it became fashionable for everyone to wear one, and that's only because of cheap electronic watches. Cheap electronic watches had the inevitable effect of whetting appetite for luxury options. Casio was the best thing that ever happened to luxury watch makers.
    - Riod 11y ago
      Right. And the choice could now be upgrading to a smartwatch from Casio as opposed to a higher end Swatch. Check out Swatch's share price since 2013. No clue why Europe is the only relevant market you're referencing here. Either way no clue what the market size for town clocks was.
      - vinceguidry 11y ago
- colmvp 11y ago
  Honestly, it's why I as a POC dislike Hollywood and a lot of Westernized popular media in general. We tend to be under-represented and stereotyped, which can have a subconscious effect on the masses.
- bluejekyll 11y ago
  It's interesting to think about this, as what it really means is that Hollywood is basically advertising for physical sales. Transformers the show was produced to sell Transformers the toys. The toys came first. So will Amazon only pick up shows that encourage people to buy more stuff? They'll have big data to back up what types of content actually encourage that. Similarly, when will Netflix get into physical sales? Options like buy 'that thing' you just saw in 'that show', etc.
  - SyneRyder 11y ago
    You might be fascinated by the 1957 Disney Business Model diagram sent to investors: https://hbr.org/2013/05/what-makes-a-good-corporate-st https://hbr.org/2013/05/what-makes-a-good-corporate-st It shows exactly this, but also states that physical sales in turn become ads for their movies. Literal quote: "Music: keeps films in mind when they're out of circulation." Let It Go must be a gold mine: content for the movie, a top 10 hit song, and an ad for Frozen DVDs & toys every time a little kid annoyingly runs around singing it.
  - toyg 11y ago
    Dude, most most shows and movies are already in the product-placement business. Bond movies are feature-long multi-ads. Sitcoms live on beer shots. Any sf/fantasy feature post-StarWars gets made by selling merchandise contracts before production even starts. I don't think Amazon or Netflix will change anything there, it has been a reality for more than 20 years now.
    - bluejekyll 11y ago
      Sure. It's the original TV soap model. I guess what's more interesting in this context is the potential that Amazon and/or Netflix have in directly mapping shows to sales.
- icegreentea 11y ago
  Hollywood has an outsized effect on American policy making because American soft power is partly reliant on the export of American, or America-friendly culture, which is what Hollywood does.
- JackFr 11y ago
  > and still not have a prayer of unseating Hollywood. That's true, but by the same token television has failed to unseat Hollywood -- millions of people still go to the movies every year. And yet I wouldn't quite describe motion pictures as having 'won'.
- prostoalex 11y ago
  It's crazy indeed, there are some numbers in this story http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-disney-princess-hasbro/ http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-disney-princess-hasbr... - the toy princess business is $5.5 bln, and it's not even Disney's top line.
- pjc50 11y ago
  Established industries have spent long, long periods of time getting to know their customer .. and then forgetting about it while wringing the customer for all they are worth. Or failing to notice that their customers are aging and not being replaced by new customers with different tastes.
Arnt 11y ago
Perhaps you meant to say "it may not end up better for the creative films, the consumers, the indie cinemas or streaming sites, but it sure is funny while it's shaking out". That said, I've no idea whether Netflix is buying/wants to buy the rights to so much that it actually might bother sites like Mubi (where I work, FWIW) or Fandor. Somehow I doubt it.

vinceguidry 11y ago

> Hollywood thinks they have money and power...until an Apple, or Google, or Amazon comes along and shows them what real economic clout looks like. Something I read once stuck with me. I don't remember the exact wording, but basically the movie industry's entire market, soup to nuts, is an order of magnitude less than just one of Disney's physical goods departments. An entire industry's market doesn't even hold a candle to one company's department. Hollywood is stranger than you could ever know. It makes a pitiful amount of money in relation to global capitalism, always has, always will. But it wields outsized influence on American policymaking regardless. Another quote comes to mind. When Apple released the Watch, someone asked one of the top watch companies if they were worried about Apple butting into their market. He just smiled and said something to the effect of, "Call me when they can figure out how to get men to wear diamonds on anything other than a watch." Established industries have spent long, long periods of time getting to know their customer. More often than not, they can take any upstart's best efforts and treat it as outsourced R&D. Netflix and Apple can succeed to their hearts content and still not have a prayer of unseating Hollywood.

SwellJoe 11y ago
I don't think luxury goods are at all a useful comparison to the various entertainment industries. I would argue entertainment is far closer to what Google/Amazon/Netflix/Apple are doing than it is to what jewelry makers are doing. And, I think it's too early to tell what'll happen to luxury watch makers. I think that cockiness is not well-founded. I'd be willing to bet that in a few more years, those traditional watches will be as common as cuff links. They'll still exist, but they won't be considered a standard part of people's every day wear, even people who buy and wear luxury goods. I do agree with you, however, that Hollywood and the entertainment industry wield way more political power than the size of their industry would indicate. They're good at lobbying, and they have a few friends in very high places (like Disney) to fight their battles for them, such as copyright terms, for example.
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  > I'd be willing to bet that in a few more years, those traditional watches will be as common as cuff links. I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Traditional watches have seen way more potential challengers than just the Apple Watch, and managed to survive nonetheless. You can think "yeah, but this time it's different," but try to think of it from the point of view of somebody whose been making and selling watches to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling watches for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy watches.
  - SwellJoe 11y ago
    But, try to think of it from the point of view of somebody who's been making and selling wagon wheels to people his whole life in an industry that's been making and selling wagon wheels for hundreds of years, as part of a company that's probably been around for at least a hundred years itself. These guys know a thing or two about why people buy wagon wheels. Sometimes, things change.
    - vinceguidry 11y ago
      You're completely not getting why technology is different from luxury. Wagon wheels are not and never were a luxury product. People bought them for completely different reasons.
      - SwellJoe 11y ago
        Beaver skin hats, wool or fur topcoats, previously mentioned cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs... Traditional watches have had their run. They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation.
        nemothekid 11y ago
        >cuff links, boned corsets, pocket watches, cravats, wigs >They will disappear, except for hipsters and old people, within a generation. The items you mentioned fell out of fashion, so I believe his point still stands. It seems to me, watch makers aren't concerned about smart watches from a utilitarian point of view, but from a fashion point of view (After all most people stopped wearing watches once you could get the time on your phone). Likewise, if it was just the case that watches simply had to have more functions to upend the market, smartphones would have eradicated traditional watches by now. Whether or not they are underestimating Apple's ability to create a fashionable digital time piece is one thing, but it looks like watch makers understand that their customers aren't buying their products in order to measure their heart rate (or even check the time).
oldmanjay 11y ago
Total domestic Hollywood box office for 2015 was ~10 billion[0]. Total 2015 revenue for Disney was ~52 billion[1]. Whatever you read, it is no longer correct. [0] http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2015 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2015 [1] http://www.statista.com/statistics/224397/quarterly-revenue-of-the-walt-disney-company/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/224397/quarterly-revenue-...
- kbenson 11y ago
  I'm not sure why you think a department in a company with 52 billion in revenue can't individually have more revenue than an industry with 10 billion in revenue. Specifically, numbers posted seem to indicate there are some divisions with more than 10 billion in revenue[1]. 1: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-04/disney-profit-beats-estimates-as-film-studio-parks-post-gains http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-04/disney-pro...
  - oldmanjay 11y ago
    52 billion can't contain an order of magnitude more than 10 billion no matter how you do your accounting.
    - vinceguidry 11y ago
      As I said, it's been awhile since I read that, I was sure I was misstating it somehow.
    - jaibot 11y ago
      Pedantic: It can if some of the departments are turning in massive losses.
      - oldmanjay 11y ago
        That's not the case at Disney. I'm not making an abstract point here.
Riod 11y ago
On watches, I'd say when you have low cost smartwatches (like what happened with phones), then things might change. Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious.
- saryant 11y ago
  Well, yeah. That was the point. Very expensive fashion statements with incredibly high profit margins.
  - Riod 11y ago
    Not all watchmakers make expensive fashion statements. Market is segmented. Guys beyond Casio (Swatch et al) will/have been affected
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  > Watches might become relegated to being statements for the fashion conscious. When have they ever not been? The watch, even back in it's heyday as something you carried around in your pocket, has always been a status-first, function-second fashion accessory. It has always been much, much cheaper to use the established methods of telling time, most villages first infrastructure investment was a town clock, once those became cost-effective to build. It has only been very recently where it became fashionable for everyone to wear one, and that's only because of cheap electronic watches. Cheap electronic watches had the inevitable effect of whetting appetite for luxury options. Casio was the best thing that ever happened to luxury watch makers.
  - Riod 11y ago
    Right. And the choice could now be upgrading to a smartwatch from Casio as opposed to a higher end Swatch. Check out Swatch's share price since 2013. No clue why Europe is the only relevant market you're referencing here. Either way no clue what the market size for town clocks was.
    - vinceguidry 11y ago
colmvp 11y ago
Honestly, it's why I as a POC dislike Hollywood and a lot of Westernized popular media in general. We tend to be under-represented and stereotyped, which can have a subconscious effect on the masses.
bluejekyll 11y ago
It's interesting to think about this, as what it really means is that Hollywood is basically advertising for physical sales. Transformers the show was produced to sell Transformers the toys. The toys came first. So will Amazon only pick up shows that encourage people to buy more stuff? They'll have big data to back up what types of content actually encourage that. Similarly, when will Netflix get into physical sales? Options like buy 'that thing' you just saw in 'that show', etc.
- SyneRyder 11y ago
  You might be fascinated by the 1957 Disney Business Model diagram sent to investors: https://hbr.org/2013/05/what-makes-a-good-corporate-st https://hbr.org/2013/05/what-makes-a-good-corporate-st It shows exactly this, but also states that physical sales in turn become ads for their movies. Literal quote: "Music: keeps films in mind when they're out of circulation." Let It Go must be a gold mine: content for the movie, a top 10 hit song, and an ad for Frozen DVDs & toys every time a little kid annoyingly runs around singing it.
- toyg 11y ago
  Dude, most most shows and movies are already in the product-placement business. Bond movies are feature-long multi-ads. Sitcoms live on beer shots. Any sf/fantasy feature post-StarWars gets made by selling merchandise contracts before production even starts. I don't think Amazon or Netflix will change anything there, it has been a reality for more than 20 years now.
  - bluejekyll 11y ago
    Sure. It's the original TV soap model. I guess what's more interesting in this context is the potential that Amazon and/or Netflix have in directly mapping shows to sales.
icegreentea 11y ago
Hollywood has an outsized effect on American policy making because American soft power is partly reliant on the export of American, or America-friendly culture, which is what Hollywood does.
JackFr 11y ago
> and still not have a prayer of unseating Hollywood. That's true, but by the same token television has failed to unseat Hollywood -- millions of people still go to the movies every year. And yet I wouldn't quite describe motion pictures as having 'won'.
prostoalex 11y ago
It's crazy indeed, there are some numbers in this story http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-disney-princess-hasbro/ http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-disney-princess-hasbr... - the toy princess business is $5.5 bln, and it's not even Disney's top line.
pjc50 11y ago
Established industries have spent long, long periods of time getting to know their customer .. and then forgetting about it while wringing the customer for all they are worth. Or failing to notice that their customers are aging and not being replaced by new customers with different tastes.

Arnt 11y ago

Perhaps you meant to say "it may not end up better for the creative films, the consumers, the indie cinemas or streaming sites, but it sure is funny while it's shaking out". That said, I've no idea whether Netflix is buying/wants to buy the rights to so much that it actually might bother sites like Mubi (where I work, FWIW) or Fandor. Somehow I doubt it.