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Renewable energy will have its time, when it is ready -- and that time is coming. By 'ready', I mean 'when it is cost competitive with other technologies'. I re
by danjayh 11y ago
Renewable energy will have its time, when it is ready -- and that time is coming. By 'ready', I mean 'when it is cost competitive with other technologies'. I recently read that one Chinese solar manufacturer has achieved < $0.50/watt cost for PV module production, and it hasn't bottomed out yet. At the current rate of declining equipment prices, it doesn't matter how cheap oil is, eventually solar will be cheaper ... and when that happens, we will be living in a solar-first world faster than anyone can imagine.
The next question is how to deal with troughs in production due to the weather, and for that I really do hope we get back in the business of reactor innovation, because nuclear is the only option that provides the reliability of fuel-based power with 0 carbon output.
- clock_tower 11y agoAfter living with nuclear naysayers for decades (and rolling my eyes at them), I hate to be a nuclear naysayer myself; but there's been some use of "pumped hydro" for storing electricity generated by solar power. The principle is simple: build a hydroelectric dam and run it in reverse. Of course, this can't be done everywhere; you need a lot of peak solar production, a lot of water, and an easily-dammed valley, and you don't often see all three together... But it does get used to store power, and solar plus pumped hydro represent a kinda-sorta alternative to nuclear.
- rndmind 11y agoThe concept of a storing energy this way is fascinating.
- _nedR 11y agoHow efficient would that be though?
- binarypaean 11y agoRound-trip energy efficiency is reported to be > 80% for pumped-hydro energy storage. Ecological, space, and financial efficiency are more variable. http://energystorage.org/energy-storage/technologies/pumped-hydroelectric-storage http://energystorage.org/energy-storage/technologies/pumped-...
- danjayh 11y agoProblem is, many of the anti-combustion folks are also anti-dam, because of the habitat the reservoir destroys.
- clock_tower 11y agoThey're also anti-nuke. I've even heard people who are anti-wind (the watchword is "birdchoppers") and anti-solar (since solar panels wreck desert ecologies)... Let's just say it's a good thing they aren't responsible for development.
- ethanbond 11y agoWhat? When it's cost competitive with other technologies... yes, that's exactly the problem with oil becoming cheap again. You're skimming over the important question: will it be ready soon enough? Already, the answer is "probably not," and if the price of oil consumption keeps falling, the answer will pretty quickly become "definitely not."
- will_pseudonym 11y agoIf the price of oil consumption keeps falling, that indicates high supply, which indicates that the "deadline" for non-fossil fuels is pushed further into the future, where there most-assuredly will be improved technology. One of our patent system's broken assumptions is that without economic incentive, no one will invent new technology. Mr. Jonas Salk would like a word with you, patent system. Breakthroughs in clean energy will continue, with or without economic incentive.
- msrpotus 11y agoThe deadline for the environment might be much sooner.
- will_pseudonym 11y agoThat's true, for the definition of "the environment" being: "the environment that humans and all of humanity's dependencies exist in currently." That environment may or may not change dramatically(1), and humans and animals and plants as they exist now may not exist in the future, but I would guess that life in some form will survive, and if you define the environment to be "earth and its atmosphere," it will survive as well. It just may not have humans or animals or plants in it. Who knows. (1) I'm not a climate scientist, but it seems like dramatic changes in our environment may well be guaranteed already. That said, I don't know for sure, so I'm being careful with my language.
- xyzzyz 11y agoThe way I read it is "we might fuck up the planet, but we'll create lots of shareholder value in the process".
- danbruc 11y agoBy 'ready', I mean 'when it is cost competitive with other technologies'. This would be a wise economically point of view if there were no externalities. With externalities it is a pretty bad idea.
- ck2 11y agoSunElec already has sub 50 cent/watt panels in stock: http://sunelec.com/ http://sunelec.com/ As far as times without production, how about using the over-production to lift really really large weights or pump water up a hill?