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I'm sure your plausible alternative explanation feels great to say to yourself, but that's just not how it works. If you're born in a poor family you have 10 m

by jbooth 17y ago

I'm sure your plausible alternative explanation feels great to say to yourself, but that's just not how it works. If you're born in a poor family you have 10 million things going against you from day 1: quality of educational opportunity, access to credit or a buffer if you have a bad run of luck, spare capacity to actually try and get better at things because you're not trying to put dinner on the table constantly, neighborhood cultural factors, etc etc etc. Hard work matters -- but your baseline is probably more important.

yummyfajitas 17y ago
Do you have evidence that my plausible alternative hypothesis is not how it works, or are you just guessing? In any case, I don't believe my alternate hypothesis is a complete explanation. All I'm doing is showing why Bowles' statistics don't prove his case at all. All they do is prove that whatever factor causes low income (which may well be hard work) is hereditary. Incidentally, one of your hypothesis is demonstrably false. 90% of the poor do have "spare capacity to actually try and get better at things because [they are] not trying to put dinner on the table constantly...". 80% of the poor (people below the poverty line) don't work at all (and are not looking for work) and 90% don't work full time (at least 27 weeks/year). So at least 90% of the poor do have spare capacity to improve their lot. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswp2007.pdf http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswp2007.pdf
- jbooth 17y ago
  Yeah, there's a metric ton of research, saying that your alternative hypothesis is far from a complete picture of the story. Pick your field : psychology, sociology, economics -- there's stuff about poverty in every discipline. There's also a lot of research out there about why you would prefer that line of reasoning you expressed, and would argue it in order to feel good about yourself.
  - yummyfajitas 17y ago
    In spite of the "metric ton" of research, you have yet to cite any of it. Can you cite a single source showing that laziness is not a contributing factor to poverty? Also, I never claimed it was a complete picture of what causes poverty. I claimed it was one possible cause of the correlation between parent and child poverty. This debunks Bowle's claim that a correlation between parent and child poverty implies hard work could not be a cause of poverty. It may or may not be, but his statistic proves absolutely nothing unless he can also show that laziness is not hereditary. Other things, e.g. bad luck, might also cause poverty, but would not be correlated between parent and child. Incidentally, the same research about why I might prefer a "hard work" theory also shows why you would emotionally prefer a "it's not their fault" theory. My reasoning signals to my tribe that I'm hard working, and raises my status. Your reasoning signals you are caring, and raises your status. How clever, and probably true. (Except of course for the fact that I'm a member of your tribe and expressing my opinion lowers my status. But hey, I'm a sucker for statistics.)
    - jbooth 17y ago
      As far as citing the research, I'm not an academic. There's literally tons, measured in paper. I'm not digging through it to prove points, I'll just say that while I'm sure that there are people who don't climb the financial ladder because they're lazy, it's about #10 on the list of factors that negatively impact income mobility. Give or take. Regarding what feels good to say.. my reasoning signals an appreciation for all the advantages I've had, and an acknowledgement that I'm really not that special, I only had to be moderately smart and hard-working given the opportunities I've had. Take my deviation from the mean and put me in the ghetto, I'm not "climbing the ladder through free enterprise and hard work". You might be more special than me, I don't know.
      - yummyfajitas 17y ago
        There is tons of research, and I've read a small portion of it. As I suspected, you really don't even know what the research says, or if any of it disproves my point. You are just kind of hoping it does. Hint: it doesn't. Most of it is inconclusive, and I've seen almost nothing proving hard work is not a significant factor. Regardless, my main point is that Bowle's statistic is consistent with laziness causing heritable poverty, which completely disproves his point. As far as income mobility goes, I don't know of any research that can conclusively identify causative factors. We know whatever factors prevent mobility are heritable, location based and ethnicity based. We also they are not money/income based, since many low income immigrant groups have extremely high mobility. Vietnamese immigrants went from illiterate peasant to middle class Americans in one generation. My first gf is a perfect illustration: in 10 years, she went from illiterate African refugee to Republican campaigner/fund raiser making more money than me (that might have changed in recent years). If she could do it, basically any American could do it.

by jbooth 17y ago

yummyfajitas 17y ago

Do you have evidence that my plausible alternative hypothesis is not how it works, or are you just guessing? In any case, I don't believe my alternate hypothesis is a complete explanation. All I'm doing is showing why Bowles' statistics don't prove his case at all. All they do is prove that whatever factor causes low income (which may well be hard work) is hereditary. Incidentally, one of your hypothesis is demonstrably false. 90% of the poor do have "spare capacity to actually try and get better at things because [they are] not trying to put dinner on the table constantly...". 80% of the poor (people below the poverty line) don't work at all (and are not looking for work) and 90% don't work full time (at least 27 weeks/year). So at least 90% of the poor do have spare capacity to improve their lot. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswp2007.pdf http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswp2007.pdf

jbooth 17y ago
Yeah, there's a metric ton of research, saying that your alternative hypothesis is far from a complete picture of the story. Pick your field : psychology, sociology, economics -- there's stuff about poverty in every discipline. There's also a lot of research out there about why you would prefer that line of reasoning you expressed, and would argue it in order to feel good about yourself.
- yummyfajitas 17y ago
  In spite of the "metric ton" of research, you have yet to cite any of it. Can you cite a single source showing that laziness is not a contributing factor to poverty? Also, I never claimed it was a complete picture of what causes poverty. I claimed it was one possible cause of the correlation between parent and child poverty. This debunks Bowle's claim that a correlation between parent and child poverty implies hard work could not be a cause of poverty. It may or may not be, but his statistic proves absolutely nothing unless he can also show that laziness is not hereditary. Other things, e.g. bad luck, might also cause poverty, but would not be correlated between parent and child. Incidentally, the same research about why I might prefer a "hard work" theory also shows why you would emotionally prefer a "it's not their fault" theory. My reasoning signals to my tribe that I'm hard working, and raises my status. Your reasoning signals you are caring, and raises your status. How clever, and probably true. (Except of course for the fact that I'm a member of your tribe and expressing my opinion lowers my status. But hey, I'm a sucker for statistics.)
  - jbooth 17y ago
    As far as citing the research, I'm not an academic. There's literally tons, measured in paper. I'm not digging through it to prove points, I'll just say that while I'm sure that there are people who don't climb the financial ladder because they're lazy, it's about #10 on the list of factors that negatively impact income mobility. Give or take. Regarding what feels good to say.. my reasoning signals an appreciation for all the advantages I've had, and an acknowledgement that I'm really not that special, I only had to be moderately smart and hard-working given the opportunities I've had. Take my deviation from the mean and put me in the ghetto, I'm not "climbing the ladder through free enterprise and hard work". You might be more special than me, I don't know.
    - yummyfajitas 17y ago
      There is tons of research, and I've read a small portion of it. As I suspected, you really don't even know what the research says, or if any of it disproves my point. You are just kind of hoping it does. Hint: it doesn't. Most of it is inconclusive, and I've seen almost nothing proving hard work is not a significant factor. Regardless, my main point is that Bowle's statistic is consistent with laziness causing heritable poverty, which completely disproves his point. As far as income mobility goes, I don't know of any research that can conclusively identify causative factors. We know whatever factors prevent mobility are heritable, location based and ethnicity based. We also they are not money/income based, since many low income immigrant groups have extremely high mobility. Vietnamese immigrants went from illiterate peasant to middle class Americans in one generation. My first gf is a perfect illustration: in 10 years, she went from illiterate African refugee to Republican campaigner/fund raiser making more money than me (that might have changed in recent years). If she could do it, basically any American could do it.