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Would it have been possible to launch supplies and a repair kit to the shuttle using a more traditional unmanned rocket launch? I imagine the preparation time

by jewel 11y ago

Would it have been possible to launch supplies and a repair kit to the shuttle using a more traditional unmanned rocket launch? I imagine the preparation time for those rockets is less than the shuttle and that it'd require a much smaller payload, which could make it even more flexible.

mikeash 11y ago
Any launch would take months to prepare at best, and that's with a seriously abbreviated timetable with everybody hustling like crazy. The only reason Atlantis was even possibly maybe sort of an option is because it was already nearly ready to go, close the end of its preparation for launching its own mission not too much later.
rtkwe 11y ago
For that to work would have needed to have on hand something like a Cygnus or Dragon commercial supply vehicle and the first unmanned supply to the ISS that wasn't a Progress was 5 years later in 2008. [1] There was Progress M-47 which launched Feb 2, 2003. I'm not sure where that would have put it in their launch preparations. It doesn't look like Progress would have had the ability to match the inclination of Columbia though. See Mvandenbergh's comment on https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7305224 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7305224 TL;DR Probably not. The only existing vehicle that could autonomously rendezvous with the Shuttle was Progress and it couldn't make it to the Columbia's inclination. [2] [1] I used unmanned flights to the ISS here since anything else is unlikely to be in production to be re-purposed by NASA. (Also I don't know where to start looking for an easy list of alternatives). [2] It might have been possible but it would have required cooperation from Russia and China and then there's no docking adapter on Columbia's mission so Progress would have had to keep station while Columbia's crew did an EVA to get the supplies.
- mikeash 11y ago
  If you were extremely desperate, it seems like it ought to be possible to basically put this stuff in a fancy box/bag, launch it, and have the Shuttle do all the maneuvering to rendezvous. The time it would take to build, prepare, and launch the rocket that would carry it would, of course, sink the whole idea anyway.
  - rtkwe 11y ago
    You'd still need a strong enough structure to hold up to the launch, telemetry system to track it and a vacuum stage with enough precision to place it in a phased orbit with the shuttle so Columbia would have a chance to come get it. But at that point you're eating into the fuel the Columbia needs to maintain orbit. It's been a while since I read the article (Ars has done a piece on this before) and I haven't read the report but I don't think there's a number for how long the orbit could be maintained.
    - mikeash 11y ago
      I don't think Columbia needed any significant amount of fuel to maintain orbit. At these altitudes, orbital decay is a matter of months or years. The report says that it "would have been placed in a tail-down gravity gradient attitude that would require very little propellant." According to the accident report, the time in orbit was limited by breathing consumables, specifically the lithium hydroxide used to remove CO2, and the onboard oxygen. Both were probably good for about 30 days.
      - rtkwe 11y ago
        Yeah I knew the other human consumables were the main issue that's right there in the article. I didn't know and didn't want to assume how long the orbit would last though since it didn't seem to be covered with a specific time. Also even if it was a small amount how much would be eaten up rendezvousing with a hypothetical dumb supply bag?
        mikeash 11y ago
        I think the major propellant need is for deorbiting, which would dwarf all other needs. Attitude control is probably close enough to zero to be ignorable. The big question is how much would be required to rendezvous, and I don't have even the slightest idea there. They clearly thought there was enough to rendezvous with Atlantis, but it's a whole different game when the other craft is under active control and can also maneuver. The report says Columbia had 448fps of propellant available. The deorbit burn was at least 200fps, so that leaves at most 248fps for other uses. The rendezvous burn plans listed in the report for the hypothetical Atlantis rescue list propellant use of over 300fps which is clearly too much if rendezvousing with the dumb supply bag is even comparable, let alone worse. The report does mention this briefly, discussing an Ariane 4 that was almost ready to go at the time. It says, "The challenge with developing a supply kit, building an appropriate housing and separation system, and reprogramming the Ariane seems very difficult in three weeks..." but doesn't mention the feasibility of rendezvousing with that housing. Whether that's because it can be done or because it's not even worth looking at that sort of detail I don't know, but I'd bet on the latter.

by jewel 11y ago

mikeash 11y ago

Any launch would take months to prepare at best, and that's with a seriously abbreviated timetable with everybody hustling like crazy. The only reason Atlantis was even possibly maybe sort of an option is because it was already nearly ready to go, close the end of its preparation for launching its own mission not too much later.

rtkwe 11y ago

For that to work would have needed to have on hand something like a Cygnus or Dragon commercial supply vehicle and the first unmanned supply to the ISS that wasn't a Progress was 5 years later in 2008. [1] There was Progress M-47 which launched Feb 2, 2003. I'm not sure where that would have put it in their launch preparations. It doesn't look like Progress would have had the ability to match the inclination of Columbia though. See Mvandenbergh's comment on https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7305224 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7305224 TL;DR Probably not. The only existing vehicle that could autonomously rendezvous with the Shuttle was Progress and it couldn't make it to the Columbia's inclination. [2] [1] I used unmanned flights to the ISS here since anything else is unlikely to be in production to be re-purposed by NASA. (Also I don't know where to start looking for an easy list of alternatives). [2] It might have been possible but it would have required cooperation from Russia and China and then there's no docking adapter on Columbia's mission so Progress would have had to keep station while Columbia's crew did an EVA to get the supplies.

mikeash 11y ago
If you were extremely desperate, it seems like it ought to be possible to basically put this stuff in a fancy box/bag, launch it, and have the Shuttle do all the maneuvering to rendezvous. The time it would take to build, prepare, and launch the rocket that would carry it would, of course, sink the whole idea anyway.
- rtkwe 11y ago
  You'd still need a strong enough structure to hold up to the launch, telemetry system to track it and a vacuum stage with enough precision to place it in a phased orbit with the shuttle so Columbia would have a chance to come get it. But at that point you're eating into the fuel the Columbia needs to maintain orbit. It's been a while since I read the article (Ars has done a piece on this before) and I haven't read the report but I don't think there's a number for how long the orbit could be maintained.
  - mikeash 11y ago
    I don't think Columbia needed any significant amount of fuel to maintain orbit. At these altitudes, orbital decay is a matter of months or years. The report says that it "would have been placed in a tail-down gravity gradient attitude that would require very little propellant." According to the accident report, the time in orbit was limited by breathing consumables, specifically the lithium hydroxide used to remove CO2, and the onboard oxygen. Both were probably good for about 30 days.
    - rtkwe 11y ago
      Yeah I knew the other human consumables were the main issue that's right there in the article. I didn't know and didn't want to assume how long the orbit would last though since it didn't seem to be covered with a specific time. Also even if it was a small amount how much would be eaten up rendezvousing with a hypothetical dumb supply bag?
      - mikeash 11y ago
        I think the major propellant need is for deorbiting, which would dwarf all other needs. Attitude control is probably close enough to zero to be ignorable. The big question is how much would be required to rendezvous, and I don't have even the slightest idea there. They clearly thought there was enough to rendezvous with Atlantis, but it's a whole different game when the other craft is under active control and can also maneuver. The report says Columbia had 448fps of propellant available. The deorbit burn was at least 200fps, so that leaves at most 248fps for other uses. The rendezvous burn plans listed in the report for the hypothetical Atlantis rescue list propellant use of over 300fps which is clearly too much if rendezvousing with the dumb supply bag is even comparable, let alone worse. The report does mention this briefly, discussing an Ariane 4 that was almost ready to go at the time. It says, "The challenge with developing a supply kit, building an appropriate housing and separation system, and reprogramming the Ariane seems very difficult in three weeks..." but doesn't mention the feasibility of rendezvousing with that housing. Whether that's because it can be done or because it's not even worth looking at that sort of detail I don't know, but I'd bet on the latter.