6 ms·

The human race is basically just screwed. Warming is going to happen on a massive scale and there is little anyone can do to stop it. In 50 years, we'll be kill

The human race is basically just screwed. Warming is going to happen on a massive scale and there is little anyone can do to stop it. In 50 years, we'll be killing each other over the remaining usable farm land. Until then, we'll keep buying SUVs and burning more oil.

JoeAltmaier 11y ago
Actually, the farmland will just move. Northern regions will become more arable. There will be disruption but maybe nothing we can't handle.
- vkou 11y ago
  Their climate will become more arable... However, northern soil tends to be very nutrient-poor. Also, the southern hemisphere will have no such recourse.
  - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
    True. But in modern agriculture, the soil is irrelevant. Corn in Iowa grows because of Anhydrous Ammonia applications. That's it. Eroded clay hillsides produce as well as (or even better than) black loam. So no worries there.
- AnthonyMouse 11y ago
  You're not considering the politics. The arable farmland will "just move" into different countries. Russia, Europe and Canada win. Africa, India, most of Central and South America and China lose.
  - baddox 11y ago
    Why should I expect that to result in us killing each other over arable farm land, any more than we're killing each other over arable farm land now?
    - AnthonyMouse 11y ago
      It's not literally a war over food where the winner gets to eat. It's riots because food in North Africa triples in price because it has to be transported from Russia or Europe instead of grown locally and people are angry but the local government has no capacity to fix it.
      - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
        The thing about food riots is, they are over quickly because, starvation. So a very temporary condition. And in this modern age of transportation there's really no need for anybody to go hungry. We can feed everybody. If somebody in North Africa is hungry, its their politics at fault.
        AnthonyMouse 11y ago
        > The thing about food riots is, they are over quickly because, starvation. So a very temporary condition. Your answer to food riots is don't worry, they'll starve to death soon enough? > And in this modern age of transportation there's really no need for anybody to go hungry. We can feed everybody. If somebody in North Africa is hungry, its their politics at fault. We can grow enough food for everybody. We can put the food on trucks. We can put the trucks on roads. Somebody still has to pay for the food and the trucks and the roads. And that's going to be significantly more expensive than locally grown food. For people who have no money to begin with.
        imgabe 11y ago
        We can also put the people on trucks or planes or boats and move them to where the food is. Expensive, yes, but only necessary once.
        dragonwriter 11y ago
        > We can also put the people on trucks or planes or boats and move them to where the food is. We could, but the people where the food (and associated economic security) is may object to that. Refugees often aren't all that well received, and economic refugees (as opposed to political refugees who are politically aligned with the receiving state, which is opposed to the regime from which they are fleeing) -- external and, often, internal -- often are the worst received.
  - PerfectDlite 11y ago
    > The arable farmland will "just move" into different countries. Russia, Europe and Canada win. Russia will hardly 'win'. If severe warming happens, all the permafrost in Siberia will turn that tundra into one big swamp. Not to mention simultaneous methane release, which some people are really worried about.
    - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
      Um, Siberia has already melted. See this global warming thing is already happening. Folks still talk like its theoretical, or in the far future.
- baddox 11y ago
  Not just move, right? It seems like it could increase, although probably over a very long period.
  - Symbiote 11y ago
    When we lose the wild species of the plants we eat, we start running a huge risk that any future disease wipes out that whole cultivated species, and our existing ways to manage this (selective breeding, or transferring genes from the wild plant) lose the material they depend upon. Coffee is one worrying example. It originates from Ethiopia and Sudan, in the mountains, at particular altitudes (temperatures). As temperatures rise, it grows higher — but we soon run out of soil on the mountain, or run out of mountain altogether. http://www.kew.org/science-conservation/plants-fungi/environment/crops-and-their-wild-plant-relatives http://www.kew.org/science-conservation/plants-fungi/environ...
    - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
      No more coffee?! Now that could start a war.
- digikata 11y ago
  Maybe the average temp/rainfall moves north in some places, but doesn't the variability also increase delivering more frequent swings into extreme conditions, in turn causing more frequent crop failures?
  - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
    Good point. Here in Iowa its been a decade of record wet/dry/hot/cold years as the weather swings out of control.
- dragonwriter 11y ago
  > Actually, the farmland will just move. Northern regions will become more arable. There will be disruption but maybe nothing we can't handle. Even if we ignore the effects of increased variability (which makes investing in production anywhere less secure) and just consider, as you do, the averages, this is problem for people as long as countries and borders are a thing, because shifting where its possible for humans to support themselves has some pretty drastic consequences.
  - DavidHm 11y ago
    Canada and Russia are mostly empty. Canada will be fine, they have a long history of cooperating with the US. Now, Russia on the other hand...with China right next to it? I smell trouble ahead.
Shivetya 11y ago
Considering that we are still moving out of an ice age I don't really expect are burning oil to be an issue that will have a noticeable effect. Consider also that crops do better as CO2 concentrations rise. If anything the world can easily use and withstand a little warming. One other interesting thing to consider, we really are not even using a good percentage of land that could grow food. There are many parts of the world that because of conflict do not fully use the lands they have and in many western nations the majority of land is held by government and not open to use. So the dramatics will need to wait another day

JoeAltmaier 11y ago

Actually, the farmland will just move. Northern regions will become more arable. There will be disruption but maybe nothing we can't handle.

vkou 11y ago
Their climate will become more arable... However, northern soil tends to be very nutrient-poor. Also, the southern hemisphere will have no such recourse.
- JoeAltmaier 11y ago
  True. But in modern agriculture, the soil is irrelevant. Corn in Iowa grows because of Anhydrous Ammonia applications. That's it. Eroded clay hillsides produce as well as (or even better than) black loam. So no worries there.
AnthonyMouse 11y ago
You're not considering the politics. The arable farmland will "just move" into different countries. Russia, Europe and Canada win. Africa, India, most of Central and South America and China lose.
- baddox 11y ago
  Why should I expect that to result in us killing each other over arable farm land, any more than we're killing each other over arable farm land now?
  - AnthonyMouse 11y ago
    It's not literally a war over food where the winner gets to eat. It's riots because food in North Africa triples in price because it has to be transported from Russia or Europe instead of grown locally and people are angry but the local government has no capacity to fix it.
    - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
      The thing about food riots is, they are over quickly because, starvation. So a very temporary condition. And in this modern age of transportation there's really no need for anybody to go hungry. We can feed everybody. If somebody in North Africa is hungry, its their politics at fault.
      - AnthonyMouse 11y ago
        > The thing about food riots is, they are over quickly because, starvation. So a very temporary condition. Your answer to food riots is don't worry, they'll starve to death soon enough? > And in this modern age of transportation there's really no need for anybody to go hungry. We can feed everybody. If somebody in North Africa is hungry, its their politics at fault. We can grow enough food for everybody. We can put the food on trucks. We can put the trucks on roads. Somebody still has to pay for the food and the trucks and the roads. And that's going to be significantly more expensive than locally grown food. For people who have no money to begin with.
        imgabe 11y ago
        We can also put the people on trucks or planes or boats and move them to where the food is. Expensive, yes, but only necessary once.
        dragonwriter 11y ago
        > We can also put the people on trucks or planes or boats and move them to where the food is. We could, but the people where the food (and associated economic security) is may object to that. Refugees often aren't all that well received, and economic refugees (as opposed to political refugees who are politically aligned with the receiving state, which is opposed to the regime from which they are fleeing) -- external and, often, internal -- often are the worst received.
- PerfectDlite 11y ago
  > The arable farmland will "just move" into different countries. Russia, Europe and Canada win. Russia will hardly 'win'. If severe warming happens, all the permafrost in Siberia will turn that tundra into one big swamp. Not to mention simultaneous methane release, which some people are really worried about.
  - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
    Um, Siberia has already melted. See this global warming thing is already happening. Folks still talk like its theoretical, or in the far future.
baddox 11y ago
Not just move, right? It seems like it could increase, although probably over a very long period.
- Symbiote 11y ago
  When we lose the wild species of the plants we eat, we start running a huge risk that any future disease wipes out that whole cultivated species, and our existing ways to manage this (selective breeding, or transferring genes from the wild plant) lose the material they depend upon. Coffee is one worrying example. It originates from Ethiopia and Sudan, in the mountains, at particular altitudes (temperatures). As temperatures rise, it grows higher — but we soon run out of soil on the mountain, or run out of mountain altogether. http://www.kew.org/science-conservation/plants-fungi/environment/crops-and-their-wild-plant-relatives http://www.kew.org/science-conservation/plants-fungi/environ...
  - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
    No more coffee?! Now that could start a war.
digikata 11y ago
Maybe the average temp/rainfall moves north in some places, but doesn't the variability also increase delivering more frequent swings into extreme conditions, in turn causing more frequent crop failures?
- JoeAltmaier 11y ago
  Good point. Here in Iowa its been a decade of record wet/dry/hot/cold years as the weather swings out of control.
dragonwriter 11y ago
> Actually, the farmland will just move. Northern regions will become more arable. There will be disruption but maybe nothing we can't handle. Even if we ignore the effects of increased variability (which makes investing in production anywhere less secure) and just consider, as you do, the averages, this is problem for people as long as countries and borders are a thing, because shifting where its possible for humans to support themselves has some pretty drastic consequences.
- DavidHm 11y ago
  Canada and Russia are mostly empty. Canada will be fine, they have a long history of cooperating with the US. Now, Russia on the other hand...with China right next to it? I smell trouble ahead.

Shivetya 11y ago

Considering that we are still moving out of an ice age I don't really expect are burning oil to be an issue that will have a noticeable effect. Consider also that crops do better as CO2 concentrations rise. If anything the world can easily use and withstand a little warming. One other interesting thing to consider, we really are not even using a good percentage of land that could grow food. There are many parts of the world that because of conflict do not fully use the lands they have and in many western nations the majority of land is held by government and not open to use. So the dramatics will need to wait another day