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This is short sighted, and fails to consider what drives the price of oil, and what the current movement means for the chaotic system that is the petrochemical
by madaxe_again 11y ago
This is short sighted, and fails to consider what drives the price of oil, and what the current movement means for the chaotic system that is the petrochemical economy.
Oil prices are down due to massive overproduction over recent years, due to high oil prices, and opec sitting quietly on vast reserves that weren't on the market.
The cause isn't important, though - what is is the effect. Over recent years petro companies have invested in getting at fuels based on high prices - deep drilling, fracking, tar sands, all are really expensive. This means that they've invested in stuff that has eaten at their bottom line and they can't currently use as it's not economically viable.
Bp's earnings statement today illustrates this impact, and it's early days yet - if the price remains suppressed, which it likely will, there will be insolvencies, which will then be bailed out or bring down leveraged up to the eyeballs banks and investors with them.
Once that happens, supply will fall again, prices will rise, and we'll have another, even more violent cycle - except maybe we won't, as industry won't tolerate a wildly unpredictable energy price and will look to other more reliable sources.
Anyway. I reckon that we'll see the energy industry turned on its head before this chapter closes.
- zrail 11y agoThis happens every few decades. The supermajors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Total, Shell) are all structured to survive events like this. Smaller upstream companies and suppliers are going to get wiped out, but the supermajors will persist.