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I understand the economic theory behind encouraging banks to lend, but I don't see how this will encourage companies to borrow. I've been under the impression t
by hysan 11y ago
I understand the economic theory behind encouraging banks to lend, but I don't see how this will encourage companies to borrow. I've been under the impression that companies aren't willing to borrow because expansion/growth is very risky right now primarily due to the population not wanting to spend money. If people don't spend money, then expansions will fail simply because the company wouldn't be able to bring in positive cash flow to pay back even a 0% interest loan. And people aren't spending money due to several factors. Some big ones being:
1. The general population doesn't want to spend money because of the lack of/slow income growth. So savings appear safer.
2. Aging population means fewer youths and more elderly people every year. The elderly population would be living off of savings/pension so they are essentially on a fixed (and slowly depreciating due to inflation) income. Spending cannot increase here.
3. Youths, meanwhile, are faced with entering an economy that isn't expanding (direct result of companies not wanting to spend). So you aren't exactly boosting the number of spenders in the economy.
Then there is the very quiet startup economy which is not helped by Japan's hiring system. Salaries are seniority based and there is far less jumping between companies because of that. Also, if a graduating student misses out on the annual hiring season, they are very much unlikely to get hired for a stable job until the following year at which point they will have to compete with a fresh batch of graduates. So if you choose to go the startup route, every year you do so results in worse earnings and a far more difficult road to stability should your startup fail (which most do no matter what country you live in).
So what I'm wondering is: How is the negative interest rate supposed to fix the borrower side of the equation?
Supply means nothing if there is no demand. I haven't read much about Abenomics, but the couple of things I have looked into all point to Abe focusing only on the lending side. There doesn't seem to be anything that is promoting confidence on the borrower & buyer side. What have I missed here?