3 ms·
And you don't get Einstein's Random Walk.
by foonamefoo 19y ago
And you don't get Einstein's Random Walk.
- dejb 19y agoI have a reasonable understanding of Brownian motion. Your comment indicates that you don't really understand markets. In an efficient market system (one which is perfectly predictive of chance of an event occurring based on observable information) it should not be possible to know if the price is going to go up or down. If could know for certain then obviously the price is wrong (and you could make a risk-free profit). So yes this would obviously look a lot like a random walk. However if you look at the graph of the odds through time (say for Obama winning the democratic nomination) you'll see it is responding to new information (such as poll results etc). It represents the aggregate opinion of the participants. If you were confident that your opinion is more accurate than this group then you could profit by betting. Oh crap I just wasted more time on this.