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Our positions are not substantially far apart except regarding hedge funds power. You first expanded "hedge funds" to include everyone looking to make a buck; t
by fspeech 11y ago
Our positions are not substantially far apart except regarding hedge funds power. You first expanded "hedge funds" to include everyone looking to make a buck; then you said counterparties are easy to find for all these money looking to short. I don't see how that can be logically consistent. If everyone intending to short finds a long to match at the current price, why would that bother the PBoC?
As I said I believe the hedge funds bets against the yuan are relatively safe. I believe this is the case because they are working for the PBoC, not against it. The PBoC apparently would not mind the yuan to weaken over time. It just doesn't want it too quickly or disorderly. It wants to give time to companies that borrowed in USD to bet on yuan appreciation to unwind but it does not want to freak out retail savers to jump on the same trade so it is a delicate position. One can debate if such a policy is wise but I don't think it is at all like the all powerful hedgies put a gun to the PBoC's head. Having the offshore yuan trade lower actually provides political cover for the PBoC in Washington. It is just that herding cats can be challenging.