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I think automotion is the crux of the basic income argument. If mass automation was going to happen the way many people predict, basic income would make more se
by IsaacL 11y ago
I think automotion is the crux of the basic income argument. If mass automation was going to happen the way many people predict, basic income would make more sense. I don't think it will, and I think most jobs will be difficult to automate than people think. (Most factories are still manned by humans; manual jobs require interacting with the physical world, which machines can't do well at all; most professional jobs have significant non-routine components).
- toomuchtodo 11y agoFoxconn is replacing as many workers as possible with robotics. As robotics get better, the tipping point for each job (where the economics make sense to automate) comes closer to the present.
- rhino369 11y agoSo did Ford in the world 1920's. Or Microsoft word and IBM did replaced most secretaries. Or the tractor etc. Automation isn't necessarily the end of all jobs.
- XorNot 11y agoIt was in Detroit.
- nitrogen 11y agoIf you assume that automation begets more automation exponentially, then the end game of automation is the elimination of all jobs. Assuming this, the question is when, not if. So either we keep inventing fake work faster than we invent automation, or we decouple the idea of work from the idea of being human and let people do what they truly want to do.
- tluyben2 11y agoThe electronics factories we work with are empty: large buildings filled with (Japanese and German) machines and a handful of people 'operating' them. A few years ago there were many people doing that same work. So sure there are some people manning them but a lot of jobs gone. Automation does not have to replace all jobs but it will and does replace most repetiti ve ones. So sure professional jobs stay for a while yet but what % is that? That is really not what most people do or are able to do. Like the biggest employ in the US is truckdriving: you really think that exists in 50 years? And what can a truckdriver do instead generally?
- IsaacL 11y agoMost light manufacturing remains human-operated, though - I'm thinking the 200-person widget factories in Shenzhen or 50-person tailoring shops in Vietnam. They don't typically make a small range of products on a mass scale, but many slightly varied products on a small scale, with an irregular schedule of orders. My guess is the electronics factories, car factories and the like, found machines were a worthy investment to improve precision and quality control. For many industries, a semi-skilled human at developing country wages is a better deal than a robot. Even lower-middle class professions like teaching, nursing, policing, office admin, etc are much less routine than people realise. (Tech is obsessed with the idea of, e.g., replacing teachers with e-learning software, but what usually happens is that the teachers end up using the e-learning software as another tool to do their job). Vehicle automation is one large area I can genuinely see becoming automated (possibly the success in this area is because the AI doesn't need to manipulate the environment, just navigate through it). There are still many blue collar jobs which are really hard to automate - cleaning, gardening, building maintenance, etc, etc. (Honestly, I see the most likely outcome being that first world countries develop a grey-market, third-world economy, where low-income people work cash-in-hand, below-minimum-wage jobs running cheap food stalls, cleaning laundry, or offering other convenience services on the cheap. It's not as utopian as everyone getting a basic income and using their unlimited free time to paint watercolours, but it works out as a more robust social safety net).
- Joeri 11y agoNot just anything repetitive, but anything rule based. Accountants are very likely to get automated away, as are many lawyers.