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I came here to ask about whether or not we could see more than just Volvo's numbers? Apple releases numbers quarterly no? How are those doing? And then Volvo i

by codyb 11y ago

I came here to ask about whether or not we could see more than just Volvo's numbers? Apple releases numbers quarterly no? How are those doing? And then Volvo is obviously not raw goods, but this article talks a lot about raw goods which I would presume to slowing with China's economic slow down (for how long can one build ghost cities). My layman's analysis is that the US is in a pretty decent spot right now with a decently diversified economy but lots of other nations around the world are going to have to pull some smart moves if they'd like to sustain decent growth, but economics is a vast vast field with a seemingly unending number of indicators, so I may be totally off. Excuse me if my questions aren't sophisticated to someone with a better understanding, I do literally plead ignorance here.

jfim 11y ago
Volvo makes freight/shipping trucks, I assume that the author is using those numbers as a proxy for shipping capacity.
floppydisk 11y ago
Volvo's order book (future orders) is indicative of how shippers see demand for new capacity. If I see demand increasing, I increase my purchase of capital assets (trucks in Volvo's case) to capture the business. If I see demand decreasing or holding constant, I withhold my large capital expenditures and ride my existing fleet as long as possible. It's already a sunk cost and all I'm paying for, at that point, is maintenance/overhead which get included in the rate for the truck. At a macro level, when we see demand for future transportation assets decreasing that gives us insight into the transportation market and how people who provide the services see it going. They won't buy massive quantities of new goods if they don't see any business. Yes, companies like Apple release quarterly numbers, and we have to examine them in the context of their industry. Apple focuses on consumer electronic goods. As their numbers adjust and change, that gives us insight into (past) demand for consumer electronic goods and the state of the general consumer's purchasing power. You get leading insight into what Apple thinks demand will be, to some extent, by looking at their suppliers. Watch Samsung/TSCM when they announce big contracts from Apple. That gives you an inference as to what Apple thinks demand will be for a product. Same thing with shipping and transportation. Look at the industries that supply the goods and services transportation companies have to make capital expenditures to acquire and you'll get a rough idea of what the companies are thinking the market looks like. Economy wise, yes, it's complicated to get a finger on the pulse of an economy and a lot of what goes into it. Technology and information travels over cables and electromagnetic waves and we've increased the efficiency of the manufacturing process to such an extent that we can use less people to sustain a higher rate of output than previous generations. However, there are fundamental factors that go into any economy you can measure to get an idea of what's happening and that usually takes the form of commodities. We need raw resources like food, energy, precious metals, and manufactured consumer goods to sustain the economy and most of those goods require special transport equipment to get from the suppliers and manufacturers to the consumers. Monitor that and you get a pulse on the overall health of the economy. The more facets you can monitor (trucks, rail, ships) the better your understanding. Edit: Fixed wording

by codyb 11y ago

jfim 11y ago

Volvo makes freight/shipping trucks, I assume that the author is using those numbers as a proxy for shipping capacity.

floppydisk 11y ago

Volvo's order book (future orders) is indicative of how shippers see demand for new capacity. If I see demand increasing, I increase my purchase of capital assets (trucks in Volvo's case) to capture the business. If I see demand decreasing or holding constant, I withhold my large capital expenditures and ride my existing fleet as long as possible. It's already a sunk cost and all I'm paying for, at that point, is maintenance/overhead which get included in the rate for the truck. At a macro level, when we see demand for future transportation assets decreasing that gives us insight into the transportation market and how people who provide the services see it going. They won't buy massive quantities of new goods if they don't see any business. Yes, companies like Apple release quarterly numbers, and we have to examine them in the context of their industry. Apple focuses on consumer electronic goods. As their numbers adjust and change, that gives us insight into (past) demand for consumer electronic goods and the state of the general consumer's purchasing power. You get leading insight into what Apple thinks demand will be, to some extent, by looking at their suppliers. Watch Samsung/TSCM when they announce big contracts from Apple. That gives you an inference as to what Apple thinks demand will be for a product. Same thing with shipping and transportation. Look at the industries that supply the goods and services transportation companies have to make capital expenditures to acquire and you'll get a rough idea of what the companies are thinking the market looks like. Economy wise, yes, it's complicated to get a finger on the pulse of an economy and a lot of what goes into it. Technology and information travels over cables and electromagnetic waves and we've increased the efficiency of the manufacturing process to such an extent that we can use less people to sustain a higher rate of output than previous generations. However, there are fundamental factors that go into any economy you can measure to get an idea of what's happening and that usually takes the form of commodities. We need raw resources like food, energy, precious metals, and manufactured consumer goods to sustain the economy and most of those goods require special transport equipment to get from the suppliers and manufacturers to the consumers. Monitor that and you get a pulse on the overall health of the economy. The more facets you can monitor (trucks, rail, ships) the better your understanding. Edit: Fixed wording