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Both China and Japan have extremely high amounts of debt relative to GDP, and are both are still increasing spending. Short term, the Chinese stock market will
by danielvf 11y ago
Both China and Japan have extremely high amounts of debt relative to GDP, and are both are still increasing spending.
Short term, the Chinese stock market will continue to fall - it's still incredibly overvalued from the bubble. US and European stocks should continue to be slightly affected. Anyone with a clue has already priced the Chinese effect into stock prices.
Short and mid term, any money that can will continue to attempt to escape China. Land/Houses/Industries in popular areas may be a little overvalued in the popular places in the US and Europe.
- shostack 11y agoSo we can expect Bay Area home prices to continue their trend for a bit longer?
- danielvf 11y agoYes. At least until people figure out that life can be awesome (and real estate is 1/4 the price) outside it.
- robryan 11y agoUntil tech ecosystems outside the area are comparable there will probably always be waves of new people willing to give it a try to counter those moving somewhere more affordable.
- cylinder 11y agoLand values are not about lifestyle and preferences, they are about interest rates, scarcity, and proximity to economic production. As services and particularly technological services become more important and create more value, the value of land proximate to these activities will continue to increase, because the business depends on talent, and network power i.e. relationships with other individuals (which require proximity). As for interest rates, I forecast they stay low for decades as inflation will remain suppressed. There could be several cyclical downturns along the way but I can't see any way land values in the Bay Area don't appreciate at an annual rate greater than national CPI ~30 years from now.