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Except that most of Americans between 16-22 (the oldest FB audience) have quit. The lagging indicators are the user acquisition in emergent markets and the reve
by cft 11y ago
Except that most of Americans between 16-22 (the oldest FB audience) have quit. The lagging indicators are the user acquisition in emergent markets and the revenue. In the case of Blackberry for example, the revenue peaked at least two years after the actual product was dead.
- jacobolus 11y agoDo you have further evidence/elaboration about this point?
- cft 11y agoI have several accounts that I set up for research purposes with close to 5000 friends each, mostly 17-25. All friends became inactive in the last 4 years.
- toomanybeersies 11y agoIt could be that the people who accept friend requests from randoms with 5000 friends aren't very strongly attached to the service in the first place, and aren't the core market or the bread and butter of FB.
- cft 11y agoNo, no- these are the users of our app, when they added these accounts they knew the accounts were associated with our company.
- hkmurakami 11y agoThat sounds like you sent random friend requests to strangers (please correct me if I'm wrong). I'd expect that there would be some correlation between users who would accept a friend request from a stranger and the likelihood that they would go inactive.
- morgante 11y agoSo you're basing a pretty huge assertion on a tiny and non-random sample?
- askafriend 11y agoThat's exactly what he or she is doing.
- Zaheer 11y agoWhat about Instagram / Whatsapp? Both potentially huge revenue drivers. Whatsapp is particularly popular in emerging markets.
- cft 11y agoLet's see if Twitter can ride out of its stock collapse on the strength of Periscope first.
- morgante 11y ago> Except that most of Americans between 16-22 (the oldest FB audience) have quit. That's an extraordinary claim and requires extraordinary evidence. You don't have any. As someone who's actually in that demographic I can tell you it's patently false. Facebook continues to be the hub of social networking, particularly on college campuses. If you're having an event of any sort, Facebook is the place you announce it. Messenger is becoming the dominant messaging platform for most people I know. If you're going to make extraordinarily bold claims, it'd be good to offer some actual evidence. Or at least put your money where your mouth is by taking a large short position.
- thieving_magpie 11y agoCool your jets there, sassafras. There is evidence of a downward trend, though probably not "most" teens. Enjoying the indignant platitudes though. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/02/21/why-teens-are-leaving-facebook-its-meaningless/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/02...
- morgante 11y agoThat article literally consists of anecdotal musings from "a strong opponent of social media." It's pretty far from good business reporting. People have been predicting the collapse of Facebook due to teens leaving since 2010 at least. They have been consistently wrong.
- dang 11y agoPlease don't be rude to others on HN, especially when you think they're wrong. The GP shouldn't have been so aggressive, but replying like this makes things worse. Your comment would be fine without its first and third sentences.
- mintplant 11y agoMaybe it's just me, but hostility and name-calling like this seems to have become more and more common on HN in the past couple of months or so.