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I'm reasonably sure that robots (starting with self-driving cars) and genetic medicine are going to prove this gentleman very, very wrong. Self-driving cars by

I'm reasonably sure that robots (starting with self-driving cars) and genetic medicine are going to prove this gentleman very, very wrong. Self-driving cars by themselves have enough power to shape the petroleum economy in a single stroke. Once it's affordable enough for everywhere to have on demand car service a la Uber, gasoline will start to become a massive commodity, traded like steel or coal, not a consumer product. This will have an enormous impact on the petroleum industry. I'd hypothesize that it will spawn another innovation in batteries and clean energy, because no overlord of a fleet of autonomous cars is going to want to pay the recurring cost of gasoline.

dismal2 11y ago
If anything self driving cars will be most disruptive in trucking and delivery and in the process destroy the economy of middle america [1]. As for everyone having an on demand car, it has been stated here a number of times that most people still all need to get to work around the same time. If anything, automation and robots are a race to the bottom if we stick with capitalism in its current form. [1] https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961 https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-goin...
- cushychicken 11y ago
  On reflection, self-driving cars might be a bad example; considering that "truck driver" is the most widely held occupation in America, it's logical to infer that a ton of people are going to lose their jobs when automated trucking comes about. What makes me hopeful is that it's an example of robotics enriching the standard of life across the board. I can't help but feel it's inevitable that advances in that area will fuel learning that drives robotic innovation in other areas. Sure, it could lead to America (and the world as a whole) turning into a dismal hellhole of widening economic disparity between the haves and the have-nots. However, given the fact that humans are terrible at predicting so much as the weather in ten days, I can't help but retain a sense of optimism just out of lack of a productive alternative in mindset.
deleted 11y ago
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maerF0x0 11y ago
My self driving car will be super useful when it can drop me off at work and then go home and plug itself in. Or keep itself charged so that I can use it with my predetermined schedule. I goto work at 9, I leave at 5. Do whatever it takes to remain charged for that schedule...
- ethbro 11y ago
  Therein lies the social change though. Because fundamentally, most people go to work at 9 and leave at 5. Driverless cars don't alter this without other changes: you still need a car for every commuter to satisfy maximum demand (9am, 5pm). You have to combine that with flexible work hours (honestly, no reason this isn't already a thing), carpooling, or hybrid transport with car+rail/bus to have any impact on car ownership.
  - losteric 11y ago
    Your last bit seems to be key. Self-driving cars will make public transportation more attractive by filling the "last-mile" role, letting governments invest in better service along core transit lines. Wake up, do your morning routine, walk out the door, and there's a car waiting to chauffeur you to the subway station (or long-distance bus service)... preset with your favorite seat position, climate, and music. Flex hours would help drive down costs by reducing idle capacity between 9 and 5 though. > carpooling Self-driving vanpools with just-in-time routing FTW.
    - maerF0x0 11y ago
      personally speaking my gripe with public transit isnt last mile (getting to the bus/train stop) its the stopping and accelerating at everyone elses stops along the way. a 10 minute drive becomes 15 mins because suzie expects me to stop at her work and johnny wants me to stop at his gym. Wasted time. single passenger (ie very small) autonomous vehicles seems like the best fleet. Now the hard part of getting people to accept them socially. (eg: "I look like a wimp in that small thing, I want a hummer" or what have you)
mcguire 11y ago
Isn't gasoline a commodity now? And isn't a self driving car essentially the same thing as a taxi?
- cushychicken 11y ago
  > Isn't gasoline a commodity now? You missed the core of my point in your haste to nitpick: "not a consumer product". As in, regular folks aren't buying it anymore. > And isn't a self driving car essentially the same thing as a taxi? Yes, minus one employed person driving the car.
ethbro 11y ago
> I'd hypothesize that it will spawn another innovation in batteries and clean energy, because no overlord of a fleet of autonomous cars is going to want to pay the recurring cost of gasoline. Furthermore, I can't see how value of car (regardless of who owns it) isn't in some way directly proportional to its utilization percentage. And a more heavily utilized car (because it's auto-navigating and picking up multiple passengers all day) is worth more. And a car that's worth more is a more financially feasible platform to install more expensive technology on. Higher car utilization through shared ownership is going to alter a lot of the economics around what tech we can afford to put into vehicles.
entee 11y ago
Genetic medicine is a tough problem. CRISPR isn't a panacea, and if I had to place bets, it's primarily going to massively accelerate basic biological research rather than itself be a clinical tool except in certain limited contexts. It's pretty easy to edit a genome, just shoot some radiation at it. It's a lot harder to do it precisely, and though CRISPR is a huge step in that direction, it's not likely that in 10 years you'll be able to walk into a doctor's office and they'll CRISPR that nagging genetic imperfection out of you. CRISPR is a DNA nuclease, it cuts both strands of DNA at a site that is very precisely (though not perfectly) governed by an RNA template. If you cut both strands of a living thing's DNA, that's a Very Bad Thing for that organism. In fact, that's why it evolved, as a tool for bacteria to combat viruses. CRISPR based tools depend on reassembling that DNA properly, ideally with the desired alteration (inserting or deleting other pieces of DNA at the cut site). This works well if you have the opportunity to try a whole bunch of cells, and then can figure out which ones have the desired DNA modification. In an R&D context, that's an easy bar to clear, but in the clinic that means you're somewhat limited to things you can take out of the person, modify, multiply, and put back in the person. Often that means blood cells right now, but could eventually be adult stem cells. A huge advance to be sure, but many many diseases can't be addressed this way.
- cushychicken 11y ago
  CRISPR is just one of the recent trends in genetic research that gives me hope for the future. You make valid points about its difficulty, but I see that as an area of science in which humanity is just barely starting to scratch the surface.
bigger_cheese 11y ago
I think the big advances will come through efficiency improvements: We may not make huge leaps in anything but I don't think making things run smarter and more efficiently should be scoffed at. From my background as a materials engineer I'm optimistic about finding applications for Graphene and advances in high temperature superconductors. I think both have the potential to be game-changers.
erikpukinskis 11y ago
Gas powered self driving cabs will have 2x the cost per mile of electric, which will grow to 10x over the next couple decades. Gas cars will be playthings within 20 years.

dismal2 11y ago

If anything self driving cars will be most disruptive in trucking and delivery and in the process destroy the economy of middle america [1]. As for everyone having an on demand car, it has been stated here a number of times that most people still all need to get to work around the same time. If anything, automation and robots are a race to the bottom if we stick with capitalism in its current form. [1] https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961 https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-goin...

cushychicken 11y ago
On reflection, self-driving cars might be a bad example; considering that "truck driver" is the most widely held occupation in America, it's logical to infer that a ton of people are going to lose their jobs when automated trucking comes about. What makes me hopeful is that it's an example of robotics enriching the standard of life across the board. I can't help but feel it's inevitable that advances in that area will fuel learning that drives robotic innovation in other areas. Sure, it could lead to America (and the world as a whole) turning into a dismal hellhole of widening economic disparity between the haves and the have-nots. However, given the fact that humans are terrible at predicting so much as the weather in ten days, I can't help but retain a sense of optimism just out of lack of a productive alternative in mindset.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

maerF0x0 11y ago

My self driving car will be super useful when it can drop me off at work and then go home and plug itself in. Or keep itself charged so that I can use it with my predetermined schedule. I goto work at 9, I leave at 5. Do whatever it takes to remain charged for that schedule...

ethbro 11y ago
Therein lies the social change though. Because fundamentally, most people go to work at 9 and leave at 5. Driverless cars don't alter this without other changes: you still need a car for every commuter to satisfy maximum demand (9am, 5pm). You have to combine that with flexible work hours (honestly, no reason this isn't already a thing), carpooling, or hybrid transport with car+rail/bus to have any impact on car ownership.
- losteric 11y ago
  Your last bit seems to be key. Self-driving cars will make public transportation more attractive by filling the "last-mile" role, letting governments invest in better service along core transit lines. Wake up, do your morning routine, walk out the door, and there's a car waiting to chauffeur you to the subway station (or long-distance bus service)... preset with your favorite seat position, climate, and music. Flex hours would help drive down costs by reducing idle capacity between 9 and 5 though. > carpooling Self-driving vanpools with just-in-time routing FTW.
  - maerF0x0 11y ago
    personally speaking my gripe with public transit isnt last mile (getting to the bus/train stop) its the stopping and accelerating at everyone elses stops along the way. a 10 minute drive becomes 15 mins because suzie expects me to stop at her work and johnny wants me to stop at his gym. Wasted time. single passenger (ie very small) autonomous vehicles seems like the best fleet. Now the hard part of getting people to accept them socially. (eg: "I look like a wimp in that small thing, I want a hummer" or what have you)

mcguire 11y ago

Isn't gasoline a commodity now? And isn't a self driving car essentially the same thing as a taxi?

cushychicken 11y ago
> Isn't gasoline a commodity now? You missed the core of my point in your haste to nitpick: "not a consumer product". As in, regular folks aren't buying it anymore. > And isn't a self driving car essentially the same thing as a taxi? Yes, minus one employed person driving the car.

ethbro 11y ago

> I'd hypothesize that it will spawn another innovation in batteries and clean energy, because no overlord of a fleet of autonomous cars is going to want to pay the recurring cost of gasoline. Furthermore, I can't see how value of car (regardless of who owns it) isn't in some way directly proportional to its utilization percentage. And a more heavily utilized car (because it's auto-navigating and picking up multiple passengers all day) is worth more. And a car that's worth more is a more financially feasible platform to install more expensive technology on. Higher car utilization through shared ownership is going to alter a lot of the economics around what tech we can afford to put into vehicles.

entee 11y ago

Genetic medicine is a tough problem. CRISPR isn't a panacea, and if I had to place bets, it's primarily going to massively accelerate basic biological research rather than itself be a clinical tool except in certain limited contexts. It's pretty easy to edit a genome, just shoot some radiation at it. It's a lot harder to do it precisely, and though CRISPR is a huge step in that direction, it's not likely that in 10 years you'll be able to walk into a doctor's office and they'll CRISPR that nagging genetic imperfection out of you. CRISPR is a DNA nuclease, it cuts both strands of DNA at a site that is very precisely (though not perfectly) governed by an RNA template. If you cut both strands of a living thing's DNA, that's a Very Bad Thing for that organism. In fact, that's why it evolved, as a tool for bacteria to combat viruses. CRISPR based tools depend on reassembling that DNA properly, ideally with the desired alteration (inserting or deleting other pieces of DNA at the cut site). This works well if you have the opportunity to try a whole bunch of cells, and then can figure out which ones have the desired DNA modification. In an R&D context, that's an easy bar to clear, but in the clinic that means you're somewhat limited to things you can take out of the person, modify, multiply, and put back in the person. Often that means blood cells right now, but could eventually be adult stem cells. A huge advance to be sure, but many many diseases can't be addressed this way.

cushychicken 11y ago
CRISPR is just one of the recent trends in genetic research that gives me hope for the future. You make valid points about its difficulty, but I see that as an area of science in which humanity is just barely starting to scratch the surface.

bigger_cheese 11y ago

I think the big advances will come through efficiency improvements: We may not make huge leaps in anything but I don't think making things run smarter and more efficiently should be scoffed at. From my background as a materials engineer I'm optimistic about finding applications for Graphene and advances in high temperature superconductors. I think both have the potential to be game-changers.

erikpukinskis 11y ago

Gas powered self driving cabs will have 2x the cost per mile of electric, which will grow to 10x over the next couple decades. Gas cars will be playthings within 20 years.