4 ms·
The birth rate in Brazil in 2015 was 14.46 births/1,000 population[1]. The twin rate is 8.8/1,000 births[2]. So, of 1,000,000 who got sick, roughly 14,300 were
by fludlight 11y ago
The birth rate in Brazil in 2015 was 14.46 births/1,000 population[1]. The twin rate is 8.8/1,000 births[2]. So, of 1,000,000 who got sick, roughly 14,300 were pregnant women[3], resulting in a 28% chance of microcephaly.
That still comes with a big asterisk since 80% cases of the disease in the general population are asymptomatic[4]. But(!) pregnant women are at increased risk for many diseases.
[1] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/br.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...
[2] http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0025239#s5 http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal....
[3] who carried to term
[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazilians-panic-as-mosquito-linked-to-brain-damage-in-thousands-of-babies/2016/01/15/7e8e2dec-b8ca-11e5-85cd-5ad59bc19432_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazilians...
- saalweachter 11y agoI wonder whether there is a window during pregnancy for a Zika infection causing microcephaly. eg, thalidomide caused different defects depending on which day of the pregnancy the mother took it -- take it on the Nth day and you get blindness, on the Mth day you get malformed limbs. If it's something like "only a risk during the second trimester", then that 28% chance becomes "100% during second trimester".