I believe you are overestimating the cost of a transfer from GEO to LEO and underestimating the costs from ground to LEO. Specifically you haven't accounted for

I believe you are overestimating the cost of a transfer from GEO to LEO and underestimating the costs from ground to LEO. Specifically you haven't accounted for the earth's atmosphere. The earths atmosphere adds to the cost of ground launch (drag) and subtracts from the cost of GEO->LEO transfer (aerobrake). Instead of 4km/s transfer vs 7km/s direct, it should be 2km/s vs 9km/s.