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This is almost becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Enough articles are written calling for down rounds, now investors are thinking down rounds, employees are s

This is almost becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Enough articles are written calling for down rounds, now investors are thinking down rounds, employees are sprucing up their resumes, lawyers are preparing for battle... Can anyone really say if there is any proof to this rhetoric. Are these companies really in such bad shape? *edit: spelling

mbdev 11y ago
All of it is because investment in Q4 of last year was lower than any Q after 2012. Which is a ridicules reason given that Q3 was by far the highest ever. With that being said given the state of the public market (going down + low dividends) startups will still look sexy for a long time. I wouldn't worry about it.
- mark242 11y ago
  "With that being said given the state of the public market (going down + low dividends) startups will still look sexy for a long time. I wouldn't worry about it." This is such a ridiculous comment that it needs to be highlighted for just how myopic it really is. Angel-and-after VC investment has been driven, increasingly, by the effects of ZIRP. "Fuck it, we don't have anywhere else to put our money, we might as well gamble on 23 red" is basically the prime justification for a lot of money that's been put into, say, companies that deliver lunches in San Francisco. Now that we are moving away from ZIRP, sinking money into glorified AWS-React-Node applications is going to dry up, naturally. There are huge institutional investors who will no longer be willing to take the risk, period. The "state of the public market" is getting hammered by oil prices, and by China. I don't know how you read that as "startups will still look sexy". The roulette table looks sexy when the bank isn't giving your savings account any return. The moment it does, guess what happens.
  - alextgordon 11y ago
    I agree 100% with your analysis long-term, however it seems unlikely that interest rates will rise for the foreseeable future.
    - w4 11y ago
      > it seems unlikely that interest rates will rise for the foreseeable future Based on the past two weeks of the stock market? I'm not so sure. A choppy stock market may certainly slow down the Fed's plans for 2016, but Yellen seems hellbent on getting away from ZIRP (and the aforementioned weirdness it creates, like pension funds investing heavily in CRUD apps) before the end of this business cycle. If she doesn't, she's reliant on Congress to prop up the economy whenever it inevitably enters a recession, and given Congress's recent track record I doubt that's a gamble she wants to take.
  - tormeh 11y ago
    Meanwhile, the stock market has been giving returns of 20% per year for the last couple of years. It's been crazy. And corporate bonds typically yield 5%. Savers don't need to care about what the interest rate is. The people who care are the people who lend to invest, for whom low interest rates means increasingly risky stuff is profitable.
chishaku 11y ago
> Can anyone really say if there is any proof to this rhetoric. Are these companies really in such bad shape? One thing is for sure, you can't look at companies/startups or VC in a vacuum. You'd be wise to look at financial markets as a whole and all the interdependent factors that __might__ be leading to a situation similar to 2008/9 or worse; another housing bubble, weakness in energy markets, banks exposure to housing and energy, weakness in emerging markets (China, Brazil), tightening monetary policy, sovereign debt crises, geopolitical risk, etc. If investor and consumer confidence really start to slide, yes, valuations will take a hit. That's not to say that some unicorns and other companies can't still be wildly successful.
- sjg007 11y ago
  Technically we don't know until the SEC filing. This is why IPOs become down rounds. Sometimes a public ally traded institutional investor can shed light on a private companies value based on required public disclosures.
sjg007 11y ago
Are they overvalued? You are worth what someone will pay for you which either is based on what revenue you generate or what they believe you can sell for.
- JonFish85 11y ago
  That is true, but with the caveat that there are often terms to what investors pay. If I invest $1,000 for 0.000000000001% of your company, but with a requirement that I am repaid $2,000 in the event of a liquidity event (plus some participation), it's not really much of a risk for me: I'm "guaranteed" a 100% return. The valuation is somewhat meaningless in this situation, except maybe in terms of marketing.
  - tajen 11y ago
    Aka "Preferrence shares", for those unfamiliar with the practice. In the example above, it makes the valuation virtually 100 trillions, except, like all valuations, it's virtual.
x0x0 11y ago
we have an increasing amount of evidence that yes, they are overvalued. Look at two things: long delays IPO-ing, and very poor performance of the 2015 cohort of tech IPOs. It's hard to avoid suspecting that companies would IPO if they could, and a large part of the reason they haven't is having to release to the public audited financial reports conforming to GAAP standards.

mbdev 11y ago

All of it is because investment in Q4 of last year was lower than any Q after 2012. Which is a ridicules reason given that Q3 was by far the highest ever. With that being said given the state of the public market (going down + low dividends) startups will still look sexy for a long time. I wouldn't worry about it.

mark242 11y ago
"With that being said given the state of the public market (going down + low dividends) startups will still look sexy for a long time. I wouldn't worry about it." This is such a ridiculous comment that it needs to be highlighted for just how myopic it really is. Angel-and-after VC investment has been driven, increasingly, by the effects of ZIRP. "Fuck it, we don't have anywhere else to put our money, we might as well gamble on 23 red" is basically the prime justification for a lot of money that's been put into, say, companies that deliver lunches in San Francisco. Now that we are moving away from ZIRP, sinking money into glorified AWS-React-Node applications is going to dry up, naturally. There are huge institutional investors who will no longer be willing to take the risk, period. The "state of the public market" is getting hammered by oil prices, and by China. I don't know how you read that as "startups will still look sexy". The roulette table looks sexy when the bank isn't giving your savings account any return. The moment it does, guess what happens.
- alextgordon 11y ago
  I agree 100% with your analysis long-term, however it seems unlikely that interest rates will rise for the foreseeable future.
  - w4 11y ago
    > it seems unlikely that interest rates will rise for the foreseeable future Based on the past two weeks of the stock market? I'm not so sure. A choppy stock market may certainly slow down the Fed's plans for 2016, but Yellen seems hellbent on getting away from ZIRP (and the aforementioned weirdness it creates, like pension funds investing heavily in CRUD apps) before the end of this business cycle. If she doesn't, she's reliant on Congress to prop up the economy whenever it inevitably enters a recession, and given Congress's recent track record I doubt that's a gamble she wants to take.
- tormeh 11y ago
  Meanwhile, the stock market has been giving returns of 20% per year for the last couple of years. It's been crazy. And corporate bonds typically yield 5%. Savers don't need to care about what the interest rate is. The people who care are the people who lend to invest, for whom low interest rates means increasingly risky stuff is profitable.

chishaku 11y ago

> Can anyone really say if there is any proof to this rhetoric. Are these companies really in such bad shape? One thing is for sure, you can't look at companies/startups or VC in a vacuum. You'd be wise to look at financial markets as a whole and all the interdependent factors that __might__ be leading to a situation similar to 2008/9 or worse; another housing bubble, weakness in energy markets, banks exposure to housing and energy, weakness in emerging markets (China, Brazil), tightening monetary policy, sovereign debt crises, geopolitical risk, etc. If investor and consumer confidence really start to slide, yes, valuations will take a hit. That's not to say that some unicorns and other companies can't still be wildly successful.

sjg007 11y ago
Technically we don't know until the SEC filing. This is why IPOs become down rounds. Sometimes a public ally traded institutional investor can shed light on a private companies value based on required public disclosures.

sjg007 11y ago

Are they overvalued? You are worth what someone will pay for you which either is based on what revenue you generate or what they believe you can sell for.

JonFish85 11y ago
That is true, but with the caveat that there are often terms to what investors pay. If I invest $1,000 for 0.000000000001% of your company, but with a requirement that I am repaid $2,000 in the event of a liquidity event (plus some participation), it's not really much of a risk for me: I'm "guaranteed" a 100% return. The valuation is somewhat meaningless in this situation, except maybe in terms of marketing.
- tajen 11y ago
  Aka "Preferrence shares", for those unfamiliar with the practice. In the example above, it makes the valuation virtually 100 trillions, except, like all valuations, it's virtual.

x0x0 11y ago

we have an increasing amount of evidence that yes, they are overvalued. Look at two things: long delays IPO-ing, and very poor performance of the 2015 cohort of tech IPOs. It's hard to avoid suspecting that companies would IPO if they could, and a large part of the reason they haven't is having to release to the public audited financial reports conforming to GAAP standards.