5 ms·
So next year, when there's a modest decrease in global temperature (as per regression to the mean, even if the mean is monotonically increasing), the climate sk
by sago 11y ago
So next year, when there's a modest decrease in global temperature (as per regression to the mean, even if the mean is monotonically increasing), the climate skeptics will be out in force with their 'I told you so - it goes up and down'. Such a huge record seems like good news for climate change deniers, just deferred.
- ekianjo 11y agoWell the US government is at fault here to make such a big deal out of data from a single year. That really tells you there is more politics at play here than Science.
- Brakenshire 11y agoThat's what happens when you combine people who have fixed ideas, with noisy data. As you say, once this spike subsides (pushed higher by El Nino), we'll probably have another 5-10 years of people talking about the next global warming pause. Meanwhile the baseline carries on creeping up.
- mikeash 11y agoMaybe 2015 was the regressing to the (increasing) mean after slower increases before, rather than 2015 being an unusual spike. Certainly what you describe seems to have happened after the record hot year of 1998, though. It sure would be nice if we could all stop trying to play silly "gotcha" games and get on with the serious business of figuring out 1) what's happening and 2) what to do about it.