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Yes, it is easier to find the dead-end roads when speaking of future societal changes. It is easy to panic about massive global unemployment in the face of auto

by nefitty 11y ago

Yes, it is easier to find the dead-end roads when speaking of future societal changes. It is easy to panic about massive global unemployment in the face of automation. The fact that a conclusion is easy to come to doesn't make it any less likely. The patterns we see now are based on recent, past trends. What we can't see, or extrapolate from what we've experienced already, are the effects of accelerating exponential change in the tech sector. What I get from this article is the beginnings of the political rationalizations for denying basic guaranteed income. When your spreadsheets say there isn't a problem, when your economists tell you that work for humans is actually increasing, it is much easier to ignore the needs of the people on the ground. I have been wracking my brain about this problem for a few years now, and I still can't seem to find the essential leverage point human labor would have against automated, robotic labor. I once thought it was our ability to synthesize and generate novel solutions to problems that would keep us in a dominant position within the economy, but that is quickly turning out to be a naive delusion. I don't fully understand the direction neural networks and machine learning are moving, but it looks like they will match us in those "uniquely human" areas of cognition very soon.

tetraodonpuffer 11y ago
that is the thing though, why should we care about human labor having a leverage point? If all labor was automated, it would be a great net positive for humankind as a whole AS LONG AS it is not a requirement to be a laborer to receive a livable wage. The problem is that as time goes on it seems less and less labor is available that can be done by the majority of the population, while the requirement to labor in order to earn a wage is not changing. There is an infinite amount of work that can be done by humans that cannot be done by machine, but that kind of work usually does not command livable wages: learning to play a musical instrument, and becoming moderately competent at it, learning to build furniture with hand tools, and becoming moderately skilled at it, learning to be a good spouse, and being there when your partner needs your help. It is easy to see how a large amount of occupations still available today can be automated, it is harder to see how the large number of people displaced by this automation will be able to manage. Once automobiles became widespread, were the horses able to "retrain" into "the new jobs that became available"? Improving the cart is not the same as making the horse replaceable.
- nefitty 11y ago
  "If all labor was automated, it would be a great net positive for humankind as a whole AS LONG AS it is not a requirement to be a laborer to receive a livable wage." This is where I am pessimistic. The political will is not there, not too mention the glacier speeds at which governments move in comparison to technological innovation.

by nefitty 11y ago

tetraodonpuffer 11y ago

that is the thing though, why should we care about human labor having a leverage point? If all labor was automated, it would be a great net positive for humankind as a whole AS LONG AS it is not a requirement to be a laborer to receive a livable wage. The problem is that as time goes on it seems less and less labor is available that can be done by the majority of the population, while the requirement to labor in order to earn a wage is not changing. There is an infinite amount of work that can be done by humans that cannot be done by machine, but that kind of work usually does not command livable wages: learning to play a musical instrument, and becoming moderately competent at it, learning to build furniture with hand tools, and becoming moderately skilled at it, learning to be a good spouse, and being there when your partner needs your help. It is easy to see how a large amount of occupations still available today can be automated, it is harder to see how the large number of people displaced by this automation will be able to manage. Once automobiles became widespread, were the horses able to "retrain" into "the new jobs that became available"? Improving the cart is not the same as making the horse replaceable.

nefitty 11y ago
"If all labor was automated, it would be a great net positive for humankind as a whole AS LONG AS it is not a requirement to be a laborer to receive a livable wage." This is where I am pessimistic. The political will is not there, not too mention the glacier speeds at which governments move in comparison to technological innovation.