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Things like UberHop, where there's a pre-defined route seem like a logical first step. There's likely a large jump from that to fully autonomous vehicles that c

Things like UberHop, where there's a pre-defined route seem like a logical first step. There's likely a large jump from that to fully autonomous vehicles that can drive on any road in any situation. But in that world, Uber (or Uber-like services) will have a jump on the competition as they'll have likely years of first-mover advantage, raising brand awareness about autonomous vehicles.

exelius 11y ago
> raising brand awareness about autonomous vehicles. IMO this is Uber's biggest strength. Once autonomous driving becomes even remotely real, investors would just be able to buy a bunch of cars, build a thin framework around some fleet management software and some payment processing, and have an Uber clone all of their own. Very little execution risk; the only requirements are capital investment. Uber has a built a powerful brand though, and will likely be the first choice of consumers. But Uber will still likely be at a disadvantage in this scenario. Companies able to offer only driverless cars will have a huge advantage in cost structure: not only does a startup not have to pay drivers a share, they also don't have the overhead associated with hiring, managing, interacting, dispute resolution, etc. with drivers. They can just ignore what amounts to an enormous part of Uber's operations. Sound familiar? It's exactly what Uber did to the taxi companies. Dispatching, metering, scheduling, etc. are all huge parts of taxi operations that Uber completely automates or ignores. Of course, the whole industry will probably just end up going the route of the airline industry -- hedge funds and investment banks put up the cash for the airplanes (cars) via a holding company, then insure them and lease them out to airlines, which actually operate them. The only people who will make anything from it will be the banks.
- ufmace 11y ago
  I'm inclined to think that Uber still has an advantage in that the first self-driving systems will probably be pretty limited in the areas they can drive in. New self-driving rides only company X will have to sell the idea of "If you're in area Y, get a ride with X instead of Uber or a Taxi! Just make sure you're only going somewhere else in area Y or we can't help you." Uber will be able to say "You can always get an Uber ride from anywhere to anywhere. If we know you're going in the right area, we might send you a self-driving car, but you don't have to worry about it." I think people will keep choosing Uber just because nobody feels like trying another limited solution in special cases, even if it's cheaper.
  - exelius 11y ago
    The vast, vast majority of Uber (and taxi) trips happen in densely populated areas where autonomous cars are likely to provide the most benefit. Also, I don't think self-driving cars will see wide availability as a product unless they can serve a big majority of driving use cases. There will be an adoption curve, and given the price of an automobile, it will be very long.

exelius 11y ago

> raising brand awareness about autonomous vehicles. IMO this is Uber's biggest strength. Once autonomous driving becomes even remotely real, investors would just be able to buy a bunch of cars, build a thin framework around some fleet management software and some payment processing, and have an Uber clone all of their own. Very little execution risk; the only requirements are capital investment. Uber has a built a powerful brand though, and will likely be the first choice of consumers. But Uber will still likely be at a disadvantage in this scenario. Companies able to offer only driverless cars will have a huge advantage in cost structure: not only does a startup not have to pay drivers a share, they also don't have the overhead associated with hiring, managing, interacting, dispute resolution, etc. with drivers. They can just ignore what amounts to an enormous part of Uber's operations. Sound familiar? It's exactly what Uber did to the taxi companies. Dispatching, metering, scheduling, etc. are all huge parts of taxi operations that Uber completely automates or ignores. Of course, the whole industry will probably just end up going the route of the airline industry -- hedge funds and investment banks put up the cash for the airplanes (cars) via a holding company, then insure them and lease them out to airlines, which actually operate them. The only people who will make anything from it will be the banks.

ufmace 11y ago
I'm inclined to think that Uber still has an advantage in that the first self-driving systems will probably be pretty limited in the areas they can drive in. New self-driving rides only company X will have to sell the idea of "If you're in area Y, get a ride with X instead of Uber or a Taxi! Just make sure you're only going somewhere else in area Y or we can't help you." Uber will be able to say "You can always get an Uber ride from anywhere to anywhere. If we know you're going in the right area, we might send you a self-driving car, but you don't have to worry about it." I think people will keep choosing Uber just because nobody feels like trying another limited solution in special cases, even if it's cheaper.
- exelius 11y ago
  The vast, vast majority of Uber (and taxi) trips happen in densely populated areas where autonomous cars are likely to provide the most benefit. Also, I don't think self-driving cars will see wide availability as a product unless they can serve a big majority of driving use cases. There will be an adoption curve, and given the price of an automobile, it will be very long.