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I totally believed Perez' thesis until the iPhone came along. So what constitutes the current cycle 1. Mainframes/Mini computers 2. PCs 3. Desktop internet

by npalli 11y ago

I totally believed Perez' thesis until the iPhone came along. So what constitutes the current cycle 1. Mainframes/Mini computers 2. PCs 3. Desktop internet 4. smart phones 5. Mobile broadband 6. Cloud 7. Machine Learning 8. AI/IoT Each one has a different investment pattern and each one is affecting industries in a different way in a different time period in different geographies. So why are all of them clubbed under "information revolution". How is clubbing Mainframes with smartphones makes sense. According to Perez' the peak investment in this phase happened during the dotcom period. This can't be right. No smartphone, mobile broadband, AI, ML, IoT existed in a investment form in 2000. I have seen some adjustments to her theory which seem more like adding epicycles to ptolemy's. Not satisfying at all.

deleted 11y ago
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jmsdnns 11y ago
They're all put under "information age" because all of them depend on the microprocessor. According to Perez, the peak investment phase in financial markets paying attention to tech was during the dotcom boom. This definitely happened. The amount of money invested in tech companies was gigantic compared to what we see today. The dot com crash caused a loss of $5T. If we sum up the valuations of all the unicorns that exist today, we're not even close.
- npalli 11y ago
  Well, if it depends on the microprocessor then investments in that field peaked in the '70s. So, we are way beyond the cycle at this point. > The dot com crash caused a loss of $5T Paper losses. Actual investment was in the 10's of billions. As a reference, investment in mobile broadband globally in the next few years alone is going to be about 10 times bigger than that.
  - jmsdnns 11y ago
    Not literally investments in microprocessors, but all of those things above depend on microprocessors. Regarding the paper losses... sure. But Perez's point was more that a huge bubble would crash, which was the dot com, and then society would get mature about what the actual tech could do. She then follows that by saying massive companies would get created in the maturity phase, which your point about mobile broadband investment agrees with.
    - jmsdnns 11y ago
      If we look at oil and mass production, we see similar. Same with rail. Huge bubble, lots of folks go bust, then what's left matures and becomes a big empire as consolidation takes place on a tech society legitimately cares about. It sounds like you really like this topic. I do too. Would love to talk more about it either via email or in person (if you live in NYC). I am teaching myself these topics and want to know as much as I can. My email is in my profile in case that's interesting.
eli_gottlieb 11y ago
Shouldn't it be the following? 7. AI/ML 8. IoT There's basically no reason to put "Internet of Things" and "Artificial Intelligence" together except that they're two fairly recent buzzwords.

by npalli 11y ago

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

jmsdnns 11y ago

They're all put under "information age" because all of them depend on the microprocessor. According to Perez, the peak investment phase in financial markets paying attention to tech was during the dotcom boom. This definitely happened. The amount of money invested in tech companies was gigantic compared to what we see today. The dot com crash caused a loss of $5T. If we sum up the valuations of all the unicorns that exist today, we're not even close.

npalli 11y ago
Well, if it depends on the microprocessor then investments in that field peaked in the '70s. So, we are way beyond the cycle at this point. > The dot com crash caused a loss of $5T Paper losses. Actual investment was in the 10's of billions. As a reference, investment in mobile broadband globally in the next few years alone is going to be about 10 times bigger than that.
- jmsdnns 11y ago
  Not literally investments in microprocessors, but all of those things above depend on microprocessors. Regarding the paper losses... sure. But Perez's point was more that a huge bubble would crash, which was the dot com, and then society would get mature about what the actual tech could do. She then follows that by saying massive companies would get created in the maturity phase, which your point about mobile broadband investment agrees with.
  - jmsdnns 11y ago
    If we look at oil and mass production, we see similar. Same with rail. Huge bubble, lots of folks go bust, then what's left matures and becomes a big empire as consolidation takes place on a tech society legitimately cares about. It sounds like you really like this topic. I do too. Would love to talk more about it either via email or in person (if you live in NYC). I am teaching myself these topics and want to know as much as I can. My email is in my profile in case that's interesting.

eli_gottlieb 11y ago

Shouldn't it be the following? 7. AI/ML 8. IoT There's basically no reason to put "Internet of Things" and "Artificial Intelligence" together except that they're two fairly recent buzzwords.