In Schiller's "Irrational Exuberance," where he discusses bubble formation and deflation, he refers to it as "new era thinking;" the idea that even if the econo

In Schiller's "Irrational Exuberance," where he discusses bubble formation and deflation, he refers to it as "new era thinking;" the idea that even if the economics of the present seem crazy, it's totally going to work this time because we're in a new era. Things are different from what happened last time, really. The punchline is that basically every bubble that ever existed was characterized by new era thinking. Looking at it like a Bayesian, the presence of new era thinking is a high-confidence indicator that you're in a bubble.