3 ms·
Your estimate is 1%. It's a good prior. It's not the actual probability of an adverse side effect.
by Fomite 11y ago
Your estimate is 1%. It's a good prior.
It's not the actual probability of an adverse side effect.
- Houshalter 11y agoThere is no such thing as "actual probability"! An event either happens 100% probability, or doesn't happen with 100% probability. There is nothing else. If you flip a coin, it doesn't have 50% probability of landing heads. The atoms and their path through the air is predictable, and it is already determined that it will land heads by the time it's left your thumb, and perhaps long before. But you don't know that, so you can only estimate 50%. All probability is just a representation of your own uncertainty. If you bet anything other than 1% risk, over time you will lose money. After thousands of trials, 1% of them will go bad.