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Anyway what's the alternative prediction? If you don't take predictions from the experts, who do you ask for predictions? Lay people? Just make stuff up? It's t
by panic 11y ago
Anyway what's the alternative prediction? If you don't take predictions from the experts, who do you ask for predictions? Lay people? Just make stuff up? It's the best we can do.
One way could be to come up with one or more plausible, step-by-step stories for how AGI will be developed, then model how long each step might take to happen. This would open things up to discussion and criticism instead of having to take the word of experts as gospel. It still wouldn't be scientific, but at least it'd be closer.
- Houshalter 11y agoThere are far too many unknowns to even attempt that. No one even agrees what methods will lead to AGI, let alone how long it will take to make the necessary breakthroughs in those fields. This subject is entirely within the realm of opinion. I'm not arguing you should take the predictions as gospel. It's just an interesting and relevant datapoint. Maybe the only objective datapoint we have.