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Perhaps we are just impatient. Karl Benz invented the 'first automobile' in 1885 [0]. 29 years later, in 1914, Ford built the first mass-production factory for

Perhaps we are just impatient. Karl Benz invented the 'first automobile' in 1885 [0]. 29 years later, in 1914, Ford built the first mass-production factory for his autos. It initially produced 4 cars/hour, an annual rate of about 15,000. In 1915, there were 8,000 cars in all of the US. [1] I cannot find data, but let's guess that it's 10 more years before 1% of households in the US have cars. That would have meant about 500,000 cars. 1885 - 1925 is 40 years between invention of the first gas powered auto and 1% market penetration (bearing my assumption). Where was the robotics industry in 1976, 40 years ago? Moreover, the automobile solved one problem: Moving a human from point A to point B on a paved road. Many efforts are approaching robots as consumer products by trying to solve many very hard problems all at the same time. Perhaps robotic vacuums are the (only?) successful commercial robot because they solve a similarly discrete problem. It is understandable that we have not yet seen the type of commercial breakthroughs that we so highly anticipate. Give it another 20 years... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car#History [1] http://www.thejournal-news.net/opinion/commentary/here-s-looking-at-you-the-year-was/article_565162d6-99f9-11e4-8ff9-bf9e0d2432b5.html http://www.thejournal-news.net/opinion/commentary/here-s-loo...

ghaff 11y ago
The other thing with vacuums is that for many people, especially those with kids and pets, vacuuming and sweeping is a pretty frequent task that usually takes more than a few minutes. Mowing lawns is the other obvious task that falls into this category and, indeed, robotic lawnmowers do seem to be coming onto the market.
johansch 11y ago
One data point: "1974: The world's first microcomputer controlled electric industrial robot, IRB 6 from ASEA, was delivered to a small mechanical engineering company in southern Sweden" Here's a cute video showing this robot, still in use 40 years later: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xNgQhLAPyI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xNgQhLAPyI
ghaff 11y ago
The pace of technology adoption has sped up but that's comparing electronics to, in many cases, large appliances so I'm not sure how relevant the comparison is. https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up/ https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-s... is an interesting graph. Historically a lot of consumer tech took a long time to be adopted.
deleted 11y ago
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jacquesm 11y ago
A nice segue is that especially in manufacturing robots are plentiful. From pick-and-place units that move too fast to follow with the naked eye to welding robots and so on. In a way a current car manufacturer is a series of giant robots glued together with a relatively small number of humans. Universal robots, ones that can do basically any task that any human can do are not even on the drawing board right now, so we're limited to these application specific models but where they are engaged they are incredibly effective and have all but replaced the humans that did those jobs previously. The reason often quoted is that this is because robots can work 24x7, won't unionize and so on, but the little fact that people usually miss is that repeat accuracy is a very important factor in reducing part and product failure so betting on robots means that you get a much more reliable and consistent product out the door saving you a fortune in re-work and warranty claims.
- jnet 11y ago
  "the little fact that people usually miss is that repeat accuracy is a very important factor in reducing part and product failure so betting on robots means that you get a much more reliable and consistent product out the door saving you a fortune in re-work and warranty claims" That is a very good point, the other factor is that robots can collect massive amounts of data faster and more accurately than their human counter parts.
qbrass 11y ago
>I cannot find data, but let's guess that it's 10 more years before 1% of households in the US have cars. That would have meant about 500,000 cars. Ford produced 500,000 Model T's from 1908-1914, and 500,000 in 1916 alone. While they didn't all sell in the US, with 1.3 million T's produced, it's safe to say they sold half a million cars in the US by 1916. That bumps your 40 year estimate down to 30.

ghaff 11y ago

The other thing with vacuums is that for many people, especially those with kids and pets, vacuuming and sweeping is a pretty frequent task that usually takes more than a few minutes. Mowing lawns is the other obvious task that falls into this category and, indeed, robotic lawnmowers do seem to be coming onto the market.

johansch 11y ago

One data point: "1974: The world's first microcomputer controlled electric industrial robot, IRB 6 from ASEA, was delivered to a small mechanical engineering company in southern Sweden" Here's a cute video showing this robot, still in use 40 years later: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xNgQhLAPyI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xNgQhLAPyI

ghaff 11y ago

The pace of technology adoption has sped up but that's comparing electronics to, in many cases, large appliances so I'm not sure how relevant the comparison is. https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up/ https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-s... is an interesting graph. Historically a lot of consumer tech took a long time to be adopted.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

jacquesm 11y ago

A nice segue is that especially in manufacturing robots are plentiful. From pick-and-place units that move too fast to follow with the naked eye to welding robots and so on. In a way a current car manufacturer is a series of giant robots glued together with a relatively small number of humans. Universal robots, ones that can do basically any task that any human can do are not even on the drawing board right now, so we're limited to these application specific models but where they are engaged they are incredibly effective and have all but replaced the humans that did those jobs previously. The reason often quoted is that this is because robots can work 24x7, won't unionize and so on, but the little fact that people usually miss is that repeat accuracy is a very important factor in reducing part and product failure so betting on robots means that you get a much more reliable and consistent product out the door saving you a fortune in re-work and warranty claims.

jnet 11y ago
"the little fact that people usually miss is that repeat accuracy is a very important factor in reducing part and product failure so betting on robots means that you get a much more reliable and consistent product out the door saving you a fortune in re-work and warranty claims" That is a very good point, the other factor is that robots can collect massive amounts of data faster and more accurately than their human counter parts.

qbrass 11y ago

>I cannot find data, but let's guess that it's 10 more years before 1% of households in the US have cars. That would have meant about 500,000 cars. Ford produced 500,000 Model T's from 1908-1914, and 500,000 in 1916 alone. While they didn't all sell in the US, with 1.3 million T's produced, it's safe to say they sold half a million cars in the US by 1916. That bumps your 40 year estimate down to 30.