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>I'll give the megastructure conjecture much more weight the second someone in the research community suggests it, preferably with some sort of a testable hypot
by Houshalter 11y ago
>I'll give the megastructure conjecture much more weight the second someone in the research community suggests it, preferably with some sort of a testable hypothesis
Neither of those things should increase the probability at all. Just because a researcher believes it doesn't make it more likely to be true. Neither does the fact that it's testable.
Conversely, you shouldn't lower the probability because those things aren't true.
- Sharlin 11y agoThe Bayesian interpretation of probability is that it is a measure of subjective uncertainty. As such, a plausible model proposed by a credible member of the scientific community very much gives me a reason to update my priors.