Here's where the casual Bayesian reasoning that Daniel Kahnemann champions in Thinking Fast and Slow can come in handy. What's the base rate probability for be

Here's where the casual Bayesian reasoning that Daniel Kahnemann champions in Thinking Fast and Slow can come in handy. What's the base rate probability for believing that unimaginable alien supertech exists? Is it even 1% at the moment? Now tweak that base rate based on this new ambiguous evidence -- evidence which experts seem to think has a natural explanation. It doesn't rule out magic alien tech. But it doesn't make it all that much more probable either. If you want to be more rigorous about it, what's your confidence that we will discover compelling, if not irrefutable, evidence that alien supertech exists in the next 5 years? Wager on your favorite online prediction market accordingly.