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From a statistical perspective, you are far more likely to shot or beaten up by a black man than you are through a crooked cop. Would you go around telling peop

From a statistical perspective, you are far more likely to shot or beaten up by a black man than you are through a crooked cop. Would you go around telling people you have the same fears towards black people and say this is a fair statement? I think what's going on is availability bias. This is where dramatic or sensationalized dangers get overplayed in one's mind instead of paying attention to the actual probabilities. It's basically like shark bites, airplane crashes, or terrorist attacks. The media tends to sensationalize these risks because there is money in it and people tend to over-fear them despite their actual statistical probability. Don't get me wrong, there should be something done about crooked cops. But it's also important to distinguish real risk with the types of risks that sell newspapers.

wheaties 11y ago
No, it's outrageous that this can happen. It doesn't matter that the probability is nil one of "us" woukd see this.
jarrettch 11y ago
Over a thousand people were killed by police in the US in 2015 according to http://killedbypolice.net/ http://killedbypolice.net/ which is more than fatalities from shark bites, airplane crashes and terrorist attacks in America combined in this recent calendar year, so comparing those with police shootings(some justified, many not) is dubious at best. Maybe expecting to be murdered is a dramatic perspective to have, sure. Most people aren't murdered. But expecting the people who are hired and paid with tax dollars to "Protect and Serve" but instead kill, beat, or straight up steal from you(among other things) doesn't seem like something we should just accept because statistically it happens less than other things.
- steveeq1 11y ago
  Yes, and how many of those shootings were justified? How many of those were in self defense? I'd wager the bulk. I'm not saying unjustified shootings are absolutely ZERO. But it's relatively small in comparison to things like, say, black shootings. And I'm not saying "you should be afraid of black people" (because you shouldn't. . .), but what I AM saying is that iamleppert should put his fear of cops into perspective.
imh 11y ago
Raw probabilities are terrible for talking about this kind of thing. You are also probably less likely to be squished by a falling piano, but if you see one overhead, you're rational telling people to get out of the way.
- steveeq1 11y ago
  Straw man.
pravda 11y ago
>you are far more likely to shot or beaten up by a black man than you are through a crooked cop True, but after being shot or beaten up by a black man, you are free to go. If you are shot or beaten up by the cops, you will be arrested and charged with a felony. And then you will have to prove your innocence. See, for example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rampart_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rampart_scandal
- steveeq1 11y ago
  > True, but after being shot or beaten up by a black man, you are free to go. That doesn't make me feel any better.
  - lkbm 11y ago
    Uh...it's obviously less bad.
  - Caprinicus 11y ago
    How about if you are shot or beaten up by a black man (or any color person), you can shoot back, fight back, or get them charged with a crime?
such_a_casual 11y ago
How can you morally justify such a blatant lie? You have no idea which is more likely, since there is absolutely no obligation by the police in this country to record how many people they are murdering and beating. I have no idea where you're getting these "statistics" from since there are no statistics available for how many people the police murder every year.
baddox 11y ago
There are a lot more black men than there are cops. You're much more likely to be beaten up by a human than by a cop.
lkbm 11y ago
When a black man robs me or beats me up, I have recourse. When a cop does so, I don't. I don't fear black men because, even if they are more likely to harm me, the power dynamic is very, very different. If any random black man had special power over me, I would be afraid of any that hadn't earned my trust. (Men typically do have special power over women, and as a result, we insist that women need to avoid walking alone at night, not dress provocatively, carefully watch their drinks in bars, not wear their hair in a ponytail when running, have their keys ready when they approach their car in a dark parking lot...always be ready for an attack.) So, yes, black men may rob and beat up people at a higher rate than cops, but killing is another thing: ~1000 killed by police in 2015[0][1] 765,000 police with arresting powers[2] (I assume we can ignore the bureaucrats.) = ~765 police per police killing. 42 089 131 black/AA people in the US (2014)[3] Assume 50% males: 21 044 566 2,695 murders committed by blacks in 2014.[4] 90% of homicides committed by males.[4] => 2426. => 8675 black men per murder by black men. So police kill at ten times the rate of black men. (Major caveats: killed != murders; I didn't exclude black children, and it might be easier to avoid being killed by a police officer.) [0] http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-new-estimate-of-killings-by-police-is-way-higher-and-still-too-low/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-new-estimate-of-killin... [1] http://killedbypolice.net/ http://killedbypolice.net/ [2] http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/csllea08.pdf http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/csllea08.pdf [3] http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html [4] https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2014.xls https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/...
- steveeq1 11y ago
  Yes, and what percent of these killing are justified and/or in self defense? I'd wager the bulk. They have an inherently dangerous profession. Notice, I'm not saying it's ZERO either, but the risk is much lower than, say, black shootings.
  - fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
    According to some, they're all justified. But that's of course ridiculous. * I'd wager that a good fraction of the justified ones ought not be. It's too difficult to prosecute bad actors here. * I'd also say that a good fraction of the justified ones weren't strictly necessary. Better tactics and technology could make an impact on this. >They have an inherently dangerous profession. True, but the danger is often overstated, and there are a couple of ways to cut their risk of harm. ex: Requiring the wearing of seat belts would dramatically cut their risk. >but the risk is much lower than, say, black shootings. I also doubt whether that's the case. Got a source?
YeGoblynQueenne 11y ago
>> From a statistical perspective, you are far more likely to shot or beaten up by a black man than you are through a crooked cop. No, statistically you're more likely to be attacked by a criminal, rather than a cop. That's just because there's more criminals attacking citizens than there are cops doing so. There's so many more of them that you can pick any minority you like, claim that "you're more likely to be attacked by X minority than a cop" - and show numbers apparently supporting your claim. Except they won't be. Because there's always going to be more criminals committing crimes than cops doing so, any way you cut the criminals' class. It's like measuring one stick in inches, another in centimeters, and then proclaiming the stick measured in centimeters longer, because you counted more centimeters than inches. The quantities are correct, the relation is correct- but the units are not aligned, and therefore your conclusion is completely wrong. And now that we established that- can you please point out the data according to which you believe you can actually show that your claim is, in fact true?
dang 11y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10913433 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10913433 and marked it off-topic.

wheaties 11y ago

No, it's outrageous that this can happen. It doesn't matter that the probability is nil one of "us" woukd see this.

jarrettch 11y ago

Over a thousand people were killed by police in the US in 2015 according to http://killedbypolice.net/ http://killedbypolice.net/ which is more than fatalities from shark bites, airplane crashes and terrorist attacks in America combined in this recent calendar year, so comparing those with police shootings(some justified, many not) is dubious at best. Maybe expecting to be murdered is a dramatic perspective to have, sure. Most people aren't murdered. But expecting the people who are hired and paid with tax dollars to "Protect and Serve" but instead kill, beat, or straight up steal from you(among other things) doesn't seem like something we should just accept because statistically it happens less than other things.

steveeq1 11y ago
Yes, and how many of those shootings were justified? How many of those were in self defense? I'd wager the bulk. I'm not saying unjustified shootings are absolutely ZERO. But it's relatively small in comparison to things like, say, black shootings. And I'm not saying "you should be afraid of black people" (because you shouldn't. . .), but what I AM saying is that iamleppert should put his fear of cops into perspective.

imh 11y ago

Raw probabilities are terrible for talking about this kind of thing. You are also probably less likely to be squished by a falling piano, but if you see one overhead, you're rational telling people to get out of the way.

steveeq1 11y ago
Straw man.

pravda 11y ago

>you are far more likely to shot or beaten up by a black man than you are through a crooked cop True, but after being shot or beaten up by a black man, you are free to go. If you are shot or beaten up by the cops, you will be arrested and charged with a felony. And then you will have to prove your innocence. See, for example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rampart_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rampart_scandal

steveeq1 11y ago
> True, but after being shot or beaten up by a black man, you are free to go. That doesn't make me feel any better.
- lkbm 11y ago
  Uh...it's obviously less bad.
- Caprinicus 11y ago
  How about if you are shot or beaten up by a black man (or any color person), you can shoot back, fight back, or get them charged with a crime?

such_a_casual 11y ago

How can you morally justify such a blatant lie? You have no idea which is more likely, since there is absolutely no obligation by the police in this country to record how many people they are murdering and beating. I have no idea where you're getting these "statistics" from since there are no statistics available for how many people the police murder every year.

baddox 11y ago

There are a lot more black men than there are cops. You're much more likely to be beaten up by a human than by a cop.

lkbm 11y ago

When a black man robs me or beats me up, I have recourse. When a cop does so, I don't. I don't fear black men because, even if they are more likely to harm me, the power dynamic is very, very different. If any random black man had special power over me, I would be afraid of any that hadn't earned my trust. (Men typically do have special power over women, and as a result, we insist that women need to avoid walking alone at night, not dress provocatively, carefully watch their drinks in bars, not wear their hair in a ponytail when running, have their keys ready when they approach their car in a dark parking lot...always be ready for an attack.) So, yes, black men may rob and beat up people at a higher rate than cops, but killing is another thing: ~1000 killed by police in 2015[0][1] 765,000 police with arresting powers[2] (I assume we can ignore the bureaucrats.) = ~765 police per police killing. 42 089 131 black/AA people in the US (2014)[3] Assume 50% males: 21 044 566 2,695 murders committed by blacks in 2014.[4] 90% of homicides committed by males.[4] => 2426. => 8675 black men per murder by black men. So police kill at ten times the rate of black men. (Major caveats: killed != murders; I didn't exclude black children, and it might be easier to avoid being killed by a police officer.) [0] http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-new-estimate-of-killings-by-police-is-way-higher-and-still-too-low/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-new-estimate-of-killin... [1] http://killedbypolice.net/ http://killedbypolice.net/ [2] http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/csllea08.pdf http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/csllea08.pdf [3] http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html [4] https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2014.xls https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/...

steveeq1 11y ago
Yes, and what percent of these killing are justified and/or in self defense? I'd wager the bulk. They have an inherently dangerous profession. Notice, I'm not saying it's ZERO either, but the risk is much lower than, say, black shootings.
- fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
  According to some, they're all justified. But that's of course ridiculous. * I'd wager that a good fraction of the justified ones ought not be. It's too difficult to prosecute bad actors here. * I'd also say that a good fraction of the justified ones weren't strictly necessary. Better tactics and technology could make an impact on this. >They have an inherently dangerous profession. True, but the danger is often overstated, and there are a couple of ways to cut their risk of harm. ex: Requiring the wearing of seat belts would dramatically cut their risk. >but the risk is much lower than, say, black shootings. I also doubt whether that's the case. Got a source?

YeGoblynQueenne 11y ago

>> From a statistical perspective, you are far more likely to shot or beaten up by a black man than you are through a crooked cop. No, statistically you're more likely to be attacked by a criminal, rather than a cop. That's just because there's more criminals attacking citizens than there are cops doing so. There's so many more of them that you can pick any minority you like, claim that "you're more likely to be attacked by X minority than a cop" - and show numbers apparently supporting your claim. Except they won't be. Because there's always going to be more criminals committing crimes than cops doing so, any way you cut the criminals' class. It's like measuring one stick in inches, another in centimeters, and then proclaiming the stick measured in centimeters longer, because you counted more centimeters than inches. The quantities are correct, the relation is correct- but the units are not aligned, and therefore your conclusion is completely wrong. And now that we established that- can you please point out the data according to which you believe you can actually show that your claim is, in fact true?

dang 11y ago

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10913433 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10913433 and marked it off-topic.