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> n the quarter century following the war, America’s economy grew at the fastest rate ever in the history of the country. This is exactly my point. Fastest ev

by Mikeb85 11y ago

> n the quarter century following the war, America’s economy grew at the fastest rate ever in the history of the country. This is exactly my point. Fastest ever growth. 1945-1970. > In the half century between 1870 and 1920, the number of Americans employed in manufacturing jumped almost 450%, climbing from 2.5 million to 11.2 million. This created a vacuum that encouraged immigration and, during the same period, 27.5 million immigrants came to the United States. In order to support the country’s burgeoning population, farmers increased the number of acres under cultivation by an astonishing 234% This is simply population growth. Economic growth, as a metric that actually matters to quality of life, is defined as Real GDP per person. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.5671.pdf http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.5671.pdf If you look at the main chart in this paper, you will see the growth was, relatively speaking, rather flat throughout the gilded age, which was also characterized by wild swings in the economy. Growth becomes higher and more constant after WWII (largely due to the rather left-wing policies at play that started with the New Deal, and later the restrictions imposed during the war, and high tax rates immediately after the war).

icebraining 11y ago
>This is exactly my point. Fastest ever growth. 1945-1970. They are talking about the Civil War. >This is simply population growth. Economic growth, as a metric that actually matters to quality of life, is defined as Real GDP per person. First, it's not just "simply" population growth. Try ferrying 27 million immigrants to current Southern Europe and see how the GDP fares. But more importantly, I just don't get the idea that GDP per capita inside the country is the only metric that matters to quality of life. Dozens of millions of people were able to increase their income by coming to the US, that doesn't count? What you're essentially saying is that if a country has ten people earning $100 each, and then ten more people who were earning $2 in other countries now join the first ten (whose income is unaltered) but earn only $5, the quality of life has been reduced. To me this is simply nonsense unless one doesn't care about the quality of life of immigrants.
- Mikeb85 11y ago
  Here's a fun chart for you. US real GDP per capital from 1790 to the present: https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_5-United-States-Real-GDP-per-capita https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_5-United-States-Real-GD... Here's nominal GDP: https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_0-United-States-Nominal-GDP https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_0-United-States-Nominal... > They are talking about the Civil War. My bad. I forget about these things since I'm not American. > First, it's not just "simply" population growth. Try ferrying 27 million immigrants to current Southern Europe and see how the GDP fares. A certain economic development model says growth is a function of technology, labour, and capital utilization. Assuming there's excess capital available, more population growth will always lead to economic growth. Whether or not you actually believe the model doesn't matter, economic growth has generally followed population growth, according to data. > What you're essentially saying is that if a country has ten people earning $100 each, and then ten more people who were earning $2 in other countries now join the first ten (whose income is unaltered) but earn only $5, the quality of life has been reduced. That's essentially what slavery was... > To me this is simply nonsense unless one doesn't care about the quality of life of immigrants. This is a different discussion altogether. We can see today, in places like Saudi Arabia, migrant workers come and are unable to attain anywhere close to a living standard the Saudis enjoy, is that the model we want? Also, the US can't take in 6+ billion immigrants. Nice thought, but not possible. And finally, I'm well aware of the plight of immigrants and those in 3rd world countries - my wife is an immigrant from a 3rd world country. However, when you factor in the cost of living, it's not always an upgrade (in my wife's case, she's done well so it is, but many of her family are in worse condition in Canada than back home)...
  - icebraining 11y ago
    Here's a fun chart for you. US real GDP per capital from 1790 to the present: I understand that GDP per capita didn't grew much during that time. I just don't think it disproves the idea that the economy grew; that's the GDP, and it did grew a lot. I also don't agree that GDP per capita is the metric that matters to quality of life. Like I showed, GDP per capita can drop despite an overall growth in the quality of life of every person. And it can also grow a lot despite quality of life generally dropping, if a few become fabulously wealthy while most people become a bit poorer. Dividing the GDP by the number of people is simply not that useful in determining how wealthy the median person actually is. On the other hand, here's a report on wage growth during that time: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2500.pdf http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2500.pdf This is a different discussion altogether. We can see today, in places like Saudi Arabia, migrant workers come and are unable to attain anywhere close to a living standard the Saudis enjoy, is that the model we want? The discussion regarding the model we want is the different one. It can still be a model with economic growth and even improvements in quality of life. That doesn't mean better models don't exist, nor did I claim so. That's essentially what slavery was... Right. Except this was after the Civil War, and these were actual immigrants, not slaves. A certain economic development model says growth is a function of technology, labour, and capital utilization. Assuming there's excess capital available, more population growth will always lead to economic growth. Whether or not you actually believe the model doesn't matter, economic growth has generally followed population growth, according to data. (...) Also, the US can't take in 6+ billion immigrants. Nice thought, but not possible. Why not, if the economy will just automatically grow, as you write?

by Mikeb85 11y ago

icebraining 11y ago

>This is exactly my point. Fastest ever growth. 1945-1970. They are talking about the Civil War. >This is simply population growth. Economic growth, as a metric that actually matters to quality of life, is defined as Real GDP per person. First, it's not just "simply" population growth. Try ferrying 27 million immigrants to current Southern Europe and see how the GDP fares. But more importantly, I just don't get the idea that GDP per capita inside the country is the only metric that matters to quality of life. Dozens of millions of people were able to increase their income by coming to the US, that doesn't count? What you're essentially saying is that if a country has ten people earning $100 each, and then ten more people who were earning $2 in other countries now join the first ten (whose income is unaltered) but earn only $5, the quality of life has been reduced. To me this is simply nonsense unless one doesn't care about the quality of life of immigrants.

Mikeb85 11y ago
Here's a fun chart for you. US real GDP per capital from 1790 to the present: https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_5-United-States-Real-GDP-per-capita https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_5-United-States-Real-GD... Here's nominal GDP: https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_0-United-States-Nominal-GDP https://www.quandl.com/data/MWORTH/0_0-United-States-Nominal... > They are talking about the Civil War. My bad. I forget about these things since I'm not American. > First, it's not just "simply" population growth. Try ferrying 27 million immigrants to current Southern Europe and see how the GDP fares. A certain economic development model says growth is a function of technology, labour, and capital utilization. Assuming there's excess capital available, more population growth will always lead to economic growth. Whether or not you actually believe the model doesn't matter, economic growth has generally followed population growth, according to data. > What you're essentially saying is that if a country has ten people earning $100 each, and then ten more people who were earning $2 in other countries now join the first ten (whose income is unaltered) but earn only $5, the quality of life has been reduced. That's essentially what slavery was... > To me this is simply nonsense unless one doesn't care about the quality of life of immigrants. This is a different discussion altogether. We can see today, in places like Saudi Arabia, migrant workers come and are unable to attain anywhere close to a living standard the Saudis enjoy, is that the model we want? Also, the US can't take in 6+ billion immigrants. Nice thought, but not possible. And finally, I'm well aware of the plight of immigrants and those in 3rd world countries - my wife is an immigrant from a 3rd world country. However, when you factor in the cost of living, it's not always an upgrade (in my wife's case, she's done well so it is, but many of her family are in worse condition in Canada than back home)...
- icebraining 11y ago
  Here's a fun chart for you. US real GDP per capital from 1790 to the present: I understand that GDP per capita didn't grew much during that time. I just don't think it disproves the idea that the economy grew; that's the GDP, and it did grew a lot. I also don't agree that GDP per capita is the metric that matters to quality of life. Like I showed, GDP per capita can drop despite an overall growth in the quality of life of every person. And it can also grow a lot despite quality of life generally dropping, if a few become fabulously wealthy while most people become a bit poorer. Dividing the GDP by the number of people is simply not that useful in determining how wealthy the median person actually is. On the other hand, here's a report on wage growth during that time: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2500.pdf http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2500.pdf This is a different discussion altogether. We can see today, in places like Saudi Arabia, migrant workers come and are unable to attain anywhere close to a living standard the Saudis enjoy, is that the model we want? The discussion regarding the model we want is the different one. It can still be a model with economic growth and even improvements in quality of life. That doesn't mean better models don't exist, nor did I claim so. That's essentially what slavery was... Right. Except this was after the Civil War, and these were actual immigrants, not slaves. A certain economic development model says growth is a function of technology, labour, and capital utilization. Assuming there's excess capital available, more population growth will always lead to economic growth. Whether or not you actually believe the model doesn't matter, economic growth has generally followed population growth, according to data. (...) Also, the US can't take in 6+ billion immigrants. Nice thought, but not possible. Why not, if the economy will just automatically grow, as you write?