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> I think you would find, if you have n options, one of them is the correct one, and there is slight bias towards the correct one among the decision-makers, a s
by afarrell 11y ago
> I think you would find, if you have n options, one of them is the correct one, and there is slight bias towards the correct one among the decision-makers, a similar theorem still holds (from the central limit theorem)
You are making too many simplifying assumptions. One of these is that the decision-making process involves a simple up-or-down vote. That is rarely the case in complex discussions. Instead, as the number of folks who can bring up additional points for debate or an n+1th option grows, the length of time spent debating grows quadratically unless there is some procedure (For example, a presiding officer who can cut off debate) to stop it.
> I would say that is an issue in any project regardless how things are decided.
This is definitely incorrect. Decision procedures have a massive impact on how long things take to decide. I have empirically observed this. Student organizations at my university had a word for it: wanking. It was incredibly common at student group meetings.
- js8 11y ago> This is definitely incorrect. Decision procedures have a massive impact on how long things take to decide. What I meant was that the quadratic transaction costs apply to any large scale project anyway, because no one can fully understand it. In other words, I see the longer debate as a sign of project complexity, not choice of decision making process. I agree that bad procedures can lead to indecision, but it's not different from indecisive leader really.