7 ms·

How long until truck drivers disappear?

by dev360 11y ago

mey 11y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
csours 11y ago
From long-haul, in 15 years maybe about half will be gone. Short-haul, maybe never.
- moistgorilla 11y ago
  Could you elaborate on why you think so? I could imagine significant cost savings from the energy that would be saved by removing all of the QoL things that go into a car for humans to be able to use them.
  - csours 11y ago
    Sure, I expect to see news about Auto-Semi testing sometime this year. Energy use from Human QoL stuff would be very very low in a semi compare to the energy use for pulling. For instance, the tractor and trailer, unladen weighs 25,000 to 40,000 lbs, with a total road weight of 50-100k lbs. [1] A whole passenger car with amenities can weigh less than 3000 pounds. Call 1/5th of that QoL stuff, for 600lbs. Changes in automobile weight matter much more because automobiles stop and go much more often. So the human QoL stuff probably doesn't weigh more 1% of the road weight. But the kicker is, it doesn't even matter too much if the QoL stuff weighs 10%, because energy use scales mostly by air resistance, not weight. [2] Most of the QoL energy waste is found in idling semis at truck stops or in traffic, so this could definitely be reduced by Auto-Semis [3] The eventual savings from Auto-Semis will be in reduced wages, and possibly in reduced fuel usage - but the reduced fuel consumption would come from driving slower, as you don't have to pay a driver for their time, and an Auto Semi can drive all night. I'm sure logistic companies would love to save this much money, but the capital expenditure required will be huge. Some research from passenger self driving cars would be pertinent, and probably most sensor devices, but they would be put to slightly different uses - you want a longer range view in a truck for braking distance and crash avoidance. The reason I put the estimate so far out is liability and regulation and the cap ex mentioned above. Some classes of load will probably never be pulled by auto-semi: dangerous, time Sensitive, some luxury goods. Auto Semis could also do some interesting things like draft (tailgate) safely and form a "train" of trucks. You could have drone drivers set up who monitor 3 or 4 trucks and take over if needed. 1. http://www.thetruckersreport.com/truckingindustryforum/threads/how-much-does-the-tractor-weigh.13716/ http://www.thetruckersreport.com/truckingindustryforum/threa... 2. http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/AERO_RR_Technologies_Whitepaper_FINAL_Oct2012.pdf http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/AERO... - Page 5, PDF 3. http://fleetowner.com/fuel_economy/fuel-economy-0701 http://fleetowner.com/fuel_economy/fuel-economy-0701
  - ucho 11y ago
    Human drivers have obligatory rest time - without them the goods can be transported faster and allows to keep smaller fleet. Also lets say that total cost of self driving equipment is now around $20k-$30k - that is huge % of car price but acceptable compared to truck price.
  - csours 11y ago
    Replying again, as I cannot edit my comment: It looks like I should have been paying attention last year! [1] As Ucho says briefly, and I say below, the biggest economic difference between human operated and self driving semis are: * Tonnage / Time - the Auto Semi can drive all the time, no rest breaks. * Fuel usage - Auto Semi can drive to an algorithm, not just what "feels best", and the Auto Semi can drive slower, because you aren't paying a driver for their time. Auto Semis can "platoon" for fuel savings from drafting, among other ways to achieve savings. * Auto Semis will probably always have a human minder, at first in the cab, for experimental trucks, and later in a remote operator center (think drones) * Insurance - at some point in the future insurance for Auto Semis will be much less human driven trucks. * As soon as the break even point for the investment of sensors is about 1 year (Earnings from hauling, Fuel costs, and wages), the big logistics companies will BEGIN to replace their fleets. I expect this in 5-7 years, based on no hard facts what-so-ever. 1. http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/autos/self-driving-truck/ http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/autos/self-driving-truck/
interesting_att 11y ago
What's really interesting about this is that being a truck driver is one of the most common jobs in America. Most of these drivers have limited ability to do many other decently paying jobs. By getting self-driving countries, we would be dramatically changing the economic + social landscape of the country. We have already gotten rid of the factory worker and that has led to withering away of Middle America. Removing the truck driver would be a huge nail in the coffin of Middle America. (If lab grown meat + vertical farming takes off, we can potentially drastically reduce the number of farmers in this country.) I am all for these technical innovations, but we must be aware that this can dramatically change the economic/political/social landscape. Radical regressive ideologies spring out of such environments.
- jqm 11y ago
  Maybe they can monitor the trucks with video feeds. Get a union together and demand only one monitor per worker and have laws passed that all trucks must be monitored with video feeds. I think dock workers used to unload ships and my understanding is, that while not as extreme, they have done something similar. (Not that I see this as the best approach....).
  - cududa 11y ago
    Kind of like freight elevator operators. Utterly pointless trade I discovered while living in New York the last year. You can't bring boxes in through the lobby, only use the union operated freight elevator between designated hours.
- sakri 11y ago
  exactly, the governments responsibility also lies in supporting those who will lose their jobs, not just the drivers but the service station workers (clerks, cooks, cleaners etc. etc.), motels and so forth. Many point at Basic income as the answer, technology should release us from the shackles of work, not simply further enrich the 1%.
- smileysteve 11y ago
  > (If lab grown meat + vertical farming takes off, we can potentially drastically reduce the number of farmers in this country.) A majority of farmland and ranches are already large corporations, so I doubt lab grown meat has that significant of an effect.

How long until truck drivers disappear?

by dev360 11y ago

How long until truck drivers disappear?

mey 11y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

csours 11y ago

From long-haul, in 15 years maybe about half will be gone. Short-haul, maybe never.

moistgorilla 11y ago
Could you elaborate on why you think so? I could imagine significant cost savings from the energy that would be saved by removing all of the QoL things that go into a car for humans to be able to use them.
- csours 11y ago
  Sure, I expect to see news about Auto-Semi testing sometime this year. Energy use from Human QoL stuff would be very very low in a semi compare to the energy use for pulling. For instance, the tractor and trailer, unladen weighs 25,000 to 40,000 lbs, with a total road weight of 50-100k lbs. [1] A whole passenger car with amenities can weigh less than 3000 pounds. Call 1/5th of that QoL stuff, for 600lbs. Changes in automobile weight matter much more because automobiles stop and go much more often. So the human QoL stuff probably doesn't weigh more 1% of the road weight. But the kicker is, it doesn't even matter too much if the QoL stuff weighs 10%, because energy use scales mostly by air resistance, not weight. [2] Most of the QoL energy waste is found in idling semis at truck stops or in traffic, so this could definitely be reduced by Auto-Semis [3] The eventual savings from Auto-Semis will be in reduced wages, and possibly in reduced fuel usage - but the reduced fuel consumption would come from driving slower, as you don't have to pay a driver for their time, and an Auto Semi can drive all night. I'm sure logistic companies would love to save this much money, but the capital expenditure required will be huge. Some research from passenger self driving cars would be pertinent, and probably most sensor devices, but they would be put to slightly different uses - you want a longer range view in a truck for braking distance and crash avoidance. The reason I put the estimate so far out is liability and regulation and the cap ex mentioned above. Some classes of load will probably never be pulled by auto-semi: dangerous, time Sensitive, some luxury goods. Auto Semis could also do some interesting things like draft (tailgate) safely and form a "train" of trucks. You could have drone drivers set up who monitor 3 or 4 trucks and take over if needed. 1. http://www.thetruckersreport.com/truckingindustryforum/threads/how-much-does-the-tractor-weigh.13716/ http://www.thetruckersreport.com/truckingindustryforum/threa... 2. http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/AERO_RR_Technologies_Whitepaper_FINAL_Oct2012.pdf http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/AERO... - Page 5, PDF 3. http://fleetowner.com/fuel_economy/fuel-economy-0701 http://fleetowner.com/fuel_economy/fuel-economy-0701
- ucho 11y ago
  Human drivers have obligatory rest time - without them the goods can be transported faster and allows to keep smaller fleet. Also lets say that total cost of self driving equipment is now around $20k-$30k - that is huge % of car price but acceptable compared to truck price.
- csours 11y ago
  Replying again, as I cannot edit my comment: It looks like I should have been paying attention last year! [1] As Ucho says briefly, and I say below, the biggest economic difference between human operated and self driving semis are: * Tonnage / Time - the Auto Semi can drive all the time, no rest breaks. * Fuel usage - Auto Semi can drive to an algorithm, not just what "feels best", and the Auto Semi can drive slower, because you aren't paying a driver for their time. Auto Semis can "platoon" for fuel savings from drafting, among other ways to achieve savings. * Auto Semis will probably always have a human minder, at first in the cab, for experimental trucks, and later in a remote operator center (think drones) * Insurance - at some point in the future insurance for Auto Semis will be much less human driven trucks. * As soon as the break even point for the investment of sensors is about 1 year (Earnings from hauling, Fuel costs, and wages), the big logistics companies will BEGIN to replace their fleets. I expect this in 5-7 years, based on no hard facts what-so-ever. 1. http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/autos/self-driving-truck/ http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/06/autos/self-driving-truck/

interesting_att 11y ago

What's really interesting about this is that being a truck driver is one of the most common jobs in America. Most of these drivers have limited ability to do many other decently paying jobs. By getting self-driving countries, we would be dramatically changing the economic + social landscape of the country. We have already gotten rid of the factory worker and that has led to withering away of Middle America. Removing the truck driver would be a huge nail in the coffin of Middle America. (If lab grown meat + vertical farming takes off, we can potentially drastically reduce the number of farmers in this country.) I am all for these technical innovations, but we must be aware that this can dramatically change the economic/political/social landscape. Radical regressive ideologies spring out of such environments.

jqm 11y ago
Maybe they can monitor the trucks with video feeds. Get a union together and demand only one monitor per worker and have laws passed that all trucks must be monitored with video feeds. I think dock workers used to unload ships and my understanding is, that while not as extreme, they have done something similar. (Not that I see this as the best approach....).
- cududa 11y ago
  Kind of like freight elevator operators. Utterly pointless trade I discovered while living in New York the last year. You can't bring boxes in through the lobby, only use the union operated freight elevator between designated hours.
sakri 11y ago
exactly, the governments responsibility also lies in supporting those who will lose their jobs, not just the drivers but the service station workers (clerks, cooks, cleaners etc. etc.), motels and so forth. Many point at Basic income as the answer, technology should release us from the shackles of work, not simply further enrich the 1%.
smileysteve 11y ago
> (If lab grown meat + vertical farming takes off, we can potentially drastically reduce the number of farmers in this country.) A majority of farmland and ranches are already large corporations, so I doubt lab grown meat has that significant of an effect.