9 ms·

Tesla has proven that electric cars can be fundamentally superior to their ICE counterparts in nearly all respects, except for cost (for now) and the speed to r

by danhak 11y ago

Tesla has proven that electric cars can be fundamentally superior to their ICE counterparts in nearly all respects, except for cost (for now) and the speed to refuel (which is made moot by the convenience of refueling from home if you have garage access). The trend toward EVs despite low gas prices should be no more baffling than the trend toward smartphones despite low flip-phone prices.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
Final nail in the coffin will be ride sharing services. You won't care as a consumer who just wants a ride, and businesses will purchase electric cars because it makes business sense.
- ameen 11y ago
  I'm still not convinced about the product life. We have 20 year old ICE vehicles running absolutely perfect (well-maintained and designed ones), is the same possible with an electric car? Also are the byproducts of manufacturing an electric worse than an ICE vehicle. We need to think about the environment as a whole. I'm still convinced electric mass transportation would be better than investing in individual carmakers.
  - thaumasiotes 11y ago
    > We need to think about the environment as a whole. Actually, I'm not so sure about this. It's easy to see the case for "a little more pollution, but far away" over "a little less pollution, constantly hanging over your head".
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    > I'm still not convinced about the product life. We have 20 year old ICE vehicles running absolutely perfect (well-maintained and designed ones), is the same possible with an electric car? An electric car has no more than 50 moving parts. For the powertrain, you'd only ever need to swap the battery pack or the electric motor (weighs about 70lbs). Electric vehicles by their nature embody longevity. > Also are the byproducts of manufacturing an electric worse than an ICE vehicle. No. > We need to think about the environment as a whole. Yes. Electric vehicles are only one part of the mobility equation. > I'm still convinced electric mass transportation would be better than investing in individual carmakers. You're going to cover every American suburb with electric mass transit? If so, the cheapest way to do so is with electrified self-driving vehicles.
  - chongli 11y ago
    Electric motors are much simpler and easier to maintain than an ICE. There's no reason you couldn't keep an EV running optimally for 20 years, assuming you replace the battery at regular intervals.
    - vlehto 11y ago
      Sorry to nitpick, but it's not about "simplicity". It's mostly about lubrication and temperature gradients. Wear and fatigue have nothing to do with out brains ability to comprehend the system. But it's usually easier to design reliable machine that is somehow simple. So it appears to layman as if "reliability = low number of moving parts". But it's bit like saying "lots of megahertz makes good computer".
      - chongli 11y ago
        All other things being equal, a CPU that runs at a higher clock rate is faster. We're also talking about machines that are maintained by human mechanics throughout their lifespans, not Mars rovers. If a machine is simpler in design, it ought to be easier for a mechanic to replace a part, no?
        vlehto 11y ago
        In real life all things are seldom equal. In many cases less moving parts is more reliable. Thats if the parts we're there to give you more features. But sometimes they are there to give you more reliability. My favorite counter example is car timing belt. Replace it with chain and you add about 200 moving parts, while increasing reliability and maintainability. Now add roller sleeves around the pins of the chain, you doubled the amount of moving parts and again increased the reliability and reduced friction. The thing with chains is that they typically start to make noise long before failure, saving you from complete engine overhaul. Belt might just snap. (Though for noncritical applications opposite is true. Belt drive requires no lubrication and they are silent and light weight. Id love to replace messy bike chains with belt drive.)
        11y ago
vvanders 11y ago
Yeah, the refuel part of the equation seems much smaller than a lot of people make it out to be. Once you've got parking charging 95% of driving it will be a net time saved(from visiting gas station). On the instance where you'll be driving more than 250mi I haven't yet found the SuperCharger wait times to be an annoyance. There's still a subset that will want fast refuel but I think it's smaller than at first glance.
- chc 11y ago
  It still seems like a pretty big deal outside the high end of the market. If you don't own your own home with a garage (which I think is the majority of Americans), how the heck are you meant to plug them in?
  - cowmix 11y ago
    Free supercharging.
  - vvanders 11y ago
    Chargers work outside, I fully expect to see charging infrastructure built out for: -Work parking(Leeds cert already has started this) -Apartments(upscale working to downscale probably) -Exterior parking. Even if you don't have a garage there's no reason you can't still plugin where you park at home(or at work) since most chargers are all weather. There's also a huge incentive to built charging infra at shopping areas as you've got a captive audience(for 20-30 mins). There was a leaked slide deck a while back from some of the SuperCharger contractors showing businesses in the area where SCs installed seeing at 50% boost in revenue.
    - chc 11y ago
      Are you thinking of affordable charging, or the commercial chargers that are springing up in parking lots all over the place that cost like $4 an hour? Because I don't see how the latter solves the problem for people who are not rich, but it seems to be the only solution anyone has to offer right now. I'm not saying I think the problem is intractable, just that I think fueling is still a big problem with EVs for most people.
jseliger 11y ago
except for cost And the cost is falling with astonishing rapidity: http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/chevrolets-bolt-is-an-electric-vehicle-for-the-masses-and-weve-driven-it/ http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/chevrolets-bolt-is-an-el.... We may end up in a situation in which electric cars are cheaper and simpler than ICE cars sooner than is commonly supposed. The scenario I'm sketching obviously isn't guaranteed, but it's gotta be more than 10% likely and probably less than 85% likely. At the very least it's likely enough to scare conventional carmakers.
- mey 11y ago
  Having just purchased a new ICE vehicle, considering I drove my last car for ~13 years, I expect my next car will be both electric or hydrogen fuel cell and fully robotic. If it even makes sense to own a car at that point.
  - dTal 11y ago
    Don't hold your breath on the hydrogen fuel cell. Hydrogen makes a terrible battery. Cynically, I believe the Bush administration pushed hydrogen fuel cells because they knew they were unsuitable, copying the existing paradigm of liquid fuel and filling stations but failing to compete with petroleum on cost, convenience, or even environmental sustainability - in fact all the ways of making hydrogen involve petroleum!
- vvanders 11y ago
  If you live in a place like the PNW where electricity is cheap there's some really awesome synergy there. First month of owning an EV I put ~3k miles on it at ~$40/mo electricity bill increase. Most EVs range from 230-330 Wh/mi, gas for the car it replaced would have been ~$250. If you drive a lot EVs make sense for a bunch of reasons(no oil changes drop the per-mile cost even lower).
  - aembleton 11y ago
    How many KW/h of electricity is that in your first month? Which EV do you have?
venomsnake 11y ago
If car manufacturers were having some common sense there would have been a car battery standard that allows easy battery switch at the gas station. In that case the driver's time for refuel is 30 seconds. That is my general gripe with modern gadgets - we had something very good with AA, but now everything with li-ion is proprietary and impossible to replace/charge outside.
- rsfern 11y ago
  The reason for this is that the battery tech simply isn't really there yet. Battery tech is an intensive research area still, even at the basic sciences level. Does it make sense for companies to standardize if they're still iterating fast on their battery designs?
  - venomsnake 11y ago
    Shapes and connectors yes. Capacity no.

by danhak 11y ago

toomuchtodo 11y ago

Final nail in the coffin will be ride sharing services. You won't care as a consumer who just wants a ride, and businesses will purchase electric cars because it makes business sense.

ameen 11y ago
I'm still not convinced about the product life. We have 20 year old ICE vehicles running absolutely perfect (well-maintained and designed ones), is the same possible with an electric car? Also are the byproducts of manufacturing an electric worse than an ICE vehicle. We need to think about the environment as a whole. I'm still convinced electric mass transportation would be better than investing in individual carmakers.
- thaumasiotes 11y ago
  > We need to think about the environment as a whole. Actually, I'm not so sure about this. It's easy to see the case for "a little more pollution, but far away" over "a little less pollution, constantly hanging over your head".
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  > I'm still not convinced about the product life. We have 20 year old ICE vehicles running absolutely perfect (well-maintained and designed ones), is the same possible with an electric car? An electric car has no more than 50 moving parts. For the powertrain, you'd only ever need to swap the battery pack or the electric motor (weighs about 70lbs). Electric vehicles by their nature embody longevity. > Also are the byproducts of manufacturing an electric worse than an ICE vehicle. No. > We need to think about the environment as a whole. Yes. Electric vehicles are only one part of the mobility equation. > I'm still convinced electric mass transportation would be better than investing in individual carmakers. You're going to cover every American suburb with electric mass transit? If so, the cheapest way to do so is with electrified self-driving vehicles.
- chongli 11y ago
  Electric motors are much simpler and easier to maintain than an ICE. There's no reason you couldn't keep an EV running optimally for 20 years, assuming you replace the battery at regular intervals.
  - vlehto 11y ago
    Sorry to nitpick, but it's not about "simplicity". It's mostly about lubrication and temperature gradients. Wear and fatigue have nothing to do with out brains ability to comprehend the system. But it's usually easier to design reliable machine that is somehow simple. So it appears to layman as if "reliability = low number of moving parts". But it's bit like saying "lots of megahertz makes good computer".
    - chongli 11y ago
      All other things being equal, a CPU that runs at a higher clock rate is faster. We're also talking about machines that are maintained by human mechanics throughout their lifespans, not Mars rovers. If a machine is simpler in design, it ought to be easier for a mechanic to replace a part, no?
      - vlehto 11y ago
        In real life all things are seldom equal. In many cases less moving parts is more reliable. Thats if the parts we're there to give you more features. But sometimes they are there to give you more reliability. My favorite counter example is car timing belt. Replace it with chain and you add about 200 moving parts, while increasing reliability and maintainability. Now add roller sleeves around the pins of the chain, you doubled the amount of moving parts and again increased the reliability and reduced friction. The thing with chains is that they typically start to make noise long before failure, saving you from complete engine overhaul. Belt might just snap. (Though for noncritical applications opposite is true. Belt drive requires no lubrication and they are silent and light weight. Id love to replace messy bike chains with belt drive.)
        11y ago

vvanders 11y ago

Yeah, the refuel part of the equation seems much smaller than a lot of people make it out to be. Once you've got parking charging 95% of driving it will be a net time saved(from visiting gas station). On the instance where you'll be driving more than 250mi I haven't yet found the SuperCharger wait times to be an annoyance. There's still a subset that will want fast refuel but I think it's smaller than at first glance.

chc 11y ago
It still seems like a pretty big deal outside the high end of the market. If you don't own your own home with a garage (which I think is the majority of Americans), how the heck are you meant to plug them in?
- cowmix 11y ago
  Free supercharging.
- vvanders 11y ago
  Chargers work outside, I fully expect to see charging infrastructure built out for: -Work parking(Leeds cert already has started this) -Apartments(upscale working to downscale probably) -Exterior parking. Even if you don't have a garage there's no reason you can't still plugin where you park at home(or at work) since most chargers are all weather. There's also a huge incentive to built charging infra at shopping areas as you've got a captive audience(for 20-30 mins). There was a leaked slide deck a while back from some of the SuperCharger contractors showing businesses in the area where SCs installed seeing at 50% boost in revenue.
  - chc 11y ago
    Are you thinking of affordable charging, or the commercial chargers that are springing up in parking lots all over the place that cost like $4 an hour? Because I don't see how the latter solves the problem for people who are not rich, but it seems to be the only solution anyone has to offer right now. I'm not saying I think the problem is intractable, just that I think fueling is still a big problem with EVs for most people.

jseliger 11y ago

except for cost And the cost is falling with astonishing rapidity: http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/chevrolets-bolt-is-an-electric-vehicle-for-the-masses-and-weve-driven-it/ http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/01/chevrolets-bolt-is-an-el.... We may end up in a situation in which electric cars are cheaper and simpler than ICE cars sooner than is commonly supposed. The scenario I'm sketching obviously isn't guaranteed, but it's gotta be more than 10% likely and probably less than 85% likely. At the very least it's likely enough to scare conventional carmakers.

mey 11y ago
Having just purchased a new ICE vehicle, considering I drove my last car for ~13 years, I expect my next car will be both electric or hydrogen fuel cell and fully robotic. If it even makes sense to own a car at that point.
- dTal 11y ago
  Don't hold your breath on the hydrogen fuel cell. Hydrogen makes a terrible battery. Cynically, I believe the Bush administration pushed hydrogen fuel cells because they knew they were unsuitable, copying the existing paradigm of liquid fuel and filling stations but failing to compete with petroleum on cost, convenience, or even environmental sustainability - in fact all the ways of making hydrogen involve petroleum!
vvanders 11y ago
If you live in a place like the PNW where electricity is cheap there's some really awesome synergy there. First month of owning an EV I put ~3k miles on it at ~$40/mo electricity bill increase. Most EVs range from 230-330 Wh/mi, gas for the car it replaced would have been ~$250. If you drive a lot EVs make sense for a bunch of reasons(no oil changes drop the per-mile cost even lower).
- aembleton 11y ago
  How many KW/h of electricity is that in your first month? Which EV do you have?

venomsnake 11y ago

If car manufacturers were having some common sense there would have been a car battery standard that allows easy battery switch at the gas station. In that case the driver's time for refuel is 30 seconds. That is my general gripe with modern gadgets - we had something very good with AA, but now everything with li-ion is proprietary and impossible to replace/charge outside.

rsfern 11y ago
The reason for this is that the battery tech simply isn't really there yet. Battery tech is an intensive research area still, even at the basic sciences level. Does it make sense for companies to standardize if they're still iterating fast on their battery designs?
- venomsnake 11y ago
  Shapes and connectors yes. Capacity no.